| Jun 20, 10:55 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.947 | $10.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 10:50 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.947 | $5,261 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 10:49 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.947 | $3,156 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 09:59 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $1,089 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 20, 09:59 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $2,178 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 20, 08:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $2,333 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 08:44 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.893 | $16.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.189 | $1,890 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:28 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.410 | $1,349 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.183 | $1,423 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $3,599 | —— |
| Jun 10, 10:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,561 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.060 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 02:54 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.184 | $2,927 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 11:49 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $5,333 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 05:03 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,069 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 02:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,556 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 02:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $3,111 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 02:19 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,461 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 01:24 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.310 | $4,251 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:23 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $2,709 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:20 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.320 | $1,664 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:19 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.976 | $64.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:17 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $3,655 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:16 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.231 | $7,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $3,454 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $6,412 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $3,889 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 11:04 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 11:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $5,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:59 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $12.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $3,534 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 07:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.040 | $1,333 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:01 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.202 | $4,769 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $1,212 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,633 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 04:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.166 | $6,046 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 04:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $3,252 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 04:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $7,778 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 04:24 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $1,111 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 03:48 AM | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.973 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 03:48 AM | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.970 | $1,138 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 01:16 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $2,399 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 01:16 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $2,400 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 10:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,322 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 04:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $4,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $3,778 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 11:04 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $1,992 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 10:57 PM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.598 | $4,652 | —— |
| Jun 3, 10:56 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $4,980 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 09:56 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,496 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:50 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $14.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:49 PM | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.943 | $3,895 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 08:19 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.285 | $11.6K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 07:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.369 | $9,342 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 02:27 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $99.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 01:35 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $199.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 06:13 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 05:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.147 | $6,554 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 05:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.296 | $5,058 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 05:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $5,062 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 05:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.308 | $13.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 05:32 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.208 | $9,253 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 05:20 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $50.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $4,667 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 01:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,100 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 12:17 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,556 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 09:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.060 | $1,166 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.060 | $1,295 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 07:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,222 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 07:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,540 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 07:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $14.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 01:56 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $49.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 12:39 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,540 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $2,343 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.119 | $2,159 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $3,711 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 03:35 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.932 | $5,061 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 02:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $2,240 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $2,333 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.391 | $13.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:49 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.275 | $1,816 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.074 | $11.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $13.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $3,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.486 | $2,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:39 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.097 | $2,944 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:38 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.377 | $14.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:08 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $32.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:07 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $18.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 11:51 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.314 | $3,143 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 11:33 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.304 | $3,650 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 10:24 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.166 | $2,109 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 09:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $3,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,224 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 07:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,333 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.257 | $7,167 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 03:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.247 | $5,674 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.228 | $1,760 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $2,667 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 03:54 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $2,370 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,444 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 01:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.788 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 12:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,556 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 11:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $2,095 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,444 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 11:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,685 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 11:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,689 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 11:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,556 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 10:39 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,216 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $2,321 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $1,207 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 06:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $6,667 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,562 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,065 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $5,674 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $5,667 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.155 | $4,637 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $4,444 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.251 | $5,970 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 03:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $4,889 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 12:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $8,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 02:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $3,801 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $6,764 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,687 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 08:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $2,320 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 02:40 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.577 | $1,653 | —— |
| May 26, 01:35 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $29.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:34 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $18.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:33 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:40 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $1,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:08 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:02 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | SELL NO | 0.905 | $2,325 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:00 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $18.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $30.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:36 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | SELL NO | 0.150 | $1,548 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:47 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.124 | $1,619 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:52 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.017 | $1,338 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:49 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $1,111 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:32 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.095 | $1,064 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 05:43 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY NO | 0.046 | $1,323 | —— |
| May 23, 01:20 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.299 | $1,387 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 01:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.303 | $1,219 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 12:35 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.350 | $3,862 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 11:36 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY NO | 0.148 | $1,190 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 11:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.446 | $1,342 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:03 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY NO | 0.147 | $2,705 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 10:46 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $3,393 | —— |
| May 22, 09:51 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.930 | $2,304 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.930 | $9,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:46 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.373 | $3,524 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 09:45 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.380 | $1,934 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 09:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.214 | $1,067 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 09:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.230 | $3,726 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 05:49 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY NO | 0.180 | $1,094 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 02:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $7,677 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $9,329 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:39 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.039 | $1,170 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:22 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.112 | $2,849 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 01:58 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.162 | $6,483 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 01:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.185 | $2,083 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:02 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $4,793 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 01:46 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $3,774 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 07:40 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $6,666 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 07:36 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,233 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 11:50 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,500 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 18, 11:30 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,089 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 09:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.273 | $2,043 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 18, 04:31 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $4,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 11:07 PM | Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,888 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 11:04 PM | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $6,962 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:28 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,778 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 06:22 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.833 | $1,581 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:03 PM | Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 07:20 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $2,333 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 06:19 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 07:06 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,250 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 02:36 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $7,600 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 02:35 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,750 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 01:30 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $1,900 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 04:42 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $3,381 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 4, 01:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,522 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 12:20 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 12:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 09:57 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $12.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 3, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $1,353 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 3, 08:08 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 3, 05:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,000 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 04:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,000 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 02:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.189 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 3, 01:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $91.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 01:37 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 02:54 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $2,222 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 2, 08:50 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 2, 02:22 PM | QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $22.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 02:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 02:02 PM | QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $87.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |