| Jul 20, 05:00 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $8,036 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 08:07 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $5,747 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 07:49 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.911 | $1,822 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 07:44 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 07:41 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $6,370 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 12:03 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $6,563 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 10:34 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | SELL YES | 0.427 | $1,601 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 10:31 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | SELL YES | 0.428 | $1,606 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 10:13 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $4,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 10:12 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY YES | 0.891 | $8,912 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 12:02 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $2,418 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 05:23 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $3,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 09:51 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $6,570 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 01:47 PM | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $5,739 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 09:54 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $13.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 07:28 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $27.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 07:24 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $27.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 09:30 AM | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.820 | $2,292 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 06:23 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $4,901 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 09:51 AM | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $18.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 09:51 AM | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY NO | 0.936 | $6,552 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 07:44 AM | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY NO | 0.935 | $2,895 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 06:26 AM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,448 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 10:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $9,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 10:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $9,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 12:04 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $40.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 11:31 PM | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY YES | 0.909 | $8,762 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 03:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $37.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 03:21 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 07:31 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $36.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 07:17 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.685 | $8,220 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 10:48 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,357 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 10:33 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,384 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 10:29 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,005 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 04:56 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,998 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 10:06 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.893 | $1,786 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 09:31 AM | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $2,574 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 05:13 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $107.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 06:43 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $9,516 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 04:17 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $19.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 08:06 PM | Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $43.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 07:26 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $2,164 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 05:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $7,637 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 04:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $3,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 11:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $5,688 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 03:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $28.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 11:34 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.955 | $9,655 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 11:10 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.963 | $8,273 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 08:33 AM | Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.978 | $1,907 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 10:35 PM | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $2,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 10:32 PM | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,984 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 07:41 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 05:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,155 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 05:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $40.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:41 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $6,727 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:06 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY YES | 0.963 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:13 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY YES | 0.963 | $19.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:51 PM | 0x2cd24d17 | SELL NO | 0.970 | $1,979 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:51 PM | 0x2cd24d17 | SELL NO | 0.970 | $8,252 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $3,061 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $1,988 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:09 AM | 0x2cd24d17 | SELL NO | 0.970 | $4,409 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:09 AM | 0x2cd24d17 | SELL NO | 0.971 | $3,147 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:16 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $16.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:58 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $8,427 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:39 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $27.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:42 AM | 0x2cd24d17 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:23 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $126.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 05:27 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $99.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $25.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:25 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $126.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 09:02 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $2,051 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 07:41 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY YES | 0.520 | $2,600 | —— |
| Jun 2, 05:35 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $20.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:28 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $1,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:27 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $23.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:44 PM | 0xd3026827 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $3,002 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 09:43 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $1,988 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:42 PM | 0x4dec0ddb | SELL NO | 0.997 | $2,085 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:24 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $56.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:09 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $76.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:10 PM | 0x6e9f90a6 | SELL YES | 0.550 | $2,629 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:19 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $1,669 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 08:12 AM | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $8,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 09:15 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.992 | $4,091 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 09:14 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.992 | $32.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 09:10 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $36.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:51 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.979 | $2,604 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:52 AM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.993 | $16.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:09 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.984 | $21.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.805 | $4,025 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $8,880 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 08:58 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $8,574 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 08:43 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $20.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 08:43 AM | 0x5341e90b | SELL NO | 0.997 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 08:33 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,964 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 08:30 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $3,431 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 08:27 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,317 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 08:26 AM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.996 | $3,306 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 07:47 AM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.989 | $13.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 09:43 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $14.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 03:34 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $9,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 03:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $1,757 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 06:24 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $48.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:12 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.928 | $18.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:12 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $8,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 09:04 AM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.928 | $19.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 10:29 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.945 | $9,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:20 PM | 0xffe381a8 | SELL NO | 0.995 | $31.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 08:19 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,819 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 09:28 PM | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $1,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 08:05 PM | 0x5e5482b1 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $59.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 08:00 PM | 0x5e5482b1 | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 07:57 PM | 0x5e5482b1 | SELL NO | 0.936 | $7,877 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 02:35 PM | 0xffe381a8 | SELL NO | 0.992 | $14.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 07:20 AM | 0x5e5482b1 | BUY NO | 0.992 | $8,079 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 09:10 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,226 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 12:40 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |