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mikemoneywire - 20419

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf1bf…11d7 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf1bf47707b8e4cec6292eaa6bc47dc25871411d7·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
7
lifetime
PnL per $
+19%
historical realized
Win rate
86.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$89.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 7 resolved trades · 19% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
13
Distinct markets
5
Volume (90d)
$240.9K
avg $18.5K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$226.0K / $14.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 13 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
May 15, 09:18 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.700$1,715Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 05:53 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.659$103.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 02:24 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.570$36.8K—
May 6, 12:38 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.510$3,413—
May 4, 03:41 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.910$1,984— (SELL)
Apr 27, 01:36 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL YES0.477$3,005— (SELL)
Apr 26, 11:30 PMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.466$3,713—
Apr 25, 07:44 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL NO0.986$9,860— (SELL)
Apr 25, 04:16 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.620$25.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:26 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.800$28.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:31 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.780$2,821Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 07:50 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.800$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:40 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.760$5,055Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

5 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech4$145.0K+$145.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Tech5$61.3K+$41.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech1$25.8K+$25.8K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics2$6,718+$708
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Finance1$1,984$-1,984