0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-1766188710954

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x41e8…b994 with our methodology badges per row.

0x41e8266341517750bec28829015b5289fe00b994·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-61%

historical realized

Win rate

29.8%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$127.5K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 19 resolved trades · -61% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$196.5K

avg $5,953 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$89.5K / $106.9K

net direction

Recent trades

last 33 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 11, 08:32 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.780	$3,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:23 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.900	$26.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.988	$9,474	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:18 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.880	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL YES	0.120	$1,380	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY YES	0.130	$1,495	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 2, 12:10 AM	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	SELL NO	0.993	$2,427	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:21 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,864	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.992	$16.6K	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:46 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.974	$8,066	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:04 PM	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,054	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 04:55 PM	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 04:31 PM	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.806	$7,479	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.860	$8,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:33 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.991	$22.7K	— (SELL)
May 5, 06:28 PM	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	BUY NO	0.757	$1,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:22 PM	Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	SELL YES	0.800	$3,945	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:41 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.620	$3,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 09:51 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.771	$3,006	— (SELL)
Apr 27, 08:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.996	$22.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 07:48 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,805	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 08:20 PM	0x0233cfec	SELL	0.999	$2,766	— (SELL)
Apr 19, 05:49 PM	0x0233cfec	BUY	0.698	$1,055	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 05:48 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.710	$1,065	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 11:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.395	$3,207	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 7, 11:09 PM	0x4c5701bc	SELL YES	0.840	$3,483	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 10:44 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY YES	0.700	$2,902	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 05:51 PM	0x5c2e6aef	SELL NO	0.958	$4,760	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 01:37 AM	0x5c2e6aef	BUY NO	0.809	$4,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:32 AM	1162940	SELL NO	0.987	$3,394	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 02:03 PM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.810	$2,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 02:02 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL NO	0.952	$1,642	— (SELL)

Markets active in

15 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	5	$44.2K	$-4,060
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	5	$42.5K	+$39.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Tech	4	$32.9K	$-14,843
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	2	$25.7K	$-25,683
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	2	$12.3K	$-6,611
0x5c2e6aef	—	2	$8,860	$-660
0x4c5701bc	—	2	$6,385	$-580
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Tech	3	$4,926	+$4,926
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	Other	1	$3,945	$-3,945
0x0233cfec	—	2	$3,822	$-1,711
1162940	—	1	$3,394	$-3,394
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Tech	1	$2,427	$-2,427
0x306d10d4	—	1	$2,383	+$2,383
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Other	1	$1,642	$-1,642
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Tech	1	$1,146	+$1,146