| Jun 13, 02:15 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $5,437 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.208 | $1,298 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 02:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.185 | $2,370 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 03:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $2,709 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 07:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.444 | $3,128 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,825 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 06:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $3,781 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 06:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.166 | $1,934 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,717 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.172 | $1,081 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $2,266 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:58 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.192 | $2,627 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.438 | $3,225 | —— |
| Jun 12, 02:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $3,273 | —— |
| Jun 12, 09:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $3,551 | —— |
| Jun 11, 05:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.436 | $12.7K | —— |
| Jun 11, 05:37 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.724 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:36 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.699 | $4,618 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:36 PM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.722 | $6,666 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $4,678 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 11:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.236 | $1,384 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 10, 11:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $3,358 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 10, 09:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $3,173 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.080 | $7,838 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $3,545 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 07:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $15.8K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 03:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $12.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:35 AM | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $1,448 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:09 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.648 | $14.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:09 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $4,044 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:40 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.625 | $2,685 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:40 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $7,549 | —— |
| Jun 9, 04:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $6,746 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.775 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:33 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.144 | $2,026 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 01:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $3,945 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 01:24 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,736 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 01:24 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,364 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 01:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $3,633 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 11:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $2,025 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 11:09 PM | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.251 | $1,097 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 12:02 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.688 | $1,165 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 12:01 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $5,988 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 11:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $4,525 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 11:34 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.690 | $8,887 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 11:32 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $8,773 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 11:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $2,145 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 11:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $9,754 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 08:54 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.894 | $23.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:54 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.884 | $5,263 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $2,442 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 08:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $4,973 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 7, 08:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,171 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 08:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,767 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 08:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $2,254 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 07:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $3,393 | —— |
| Jun 7, 07:51 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $8,765 | —— |
| Jun 7, 07:38 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.704 | $4,824 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:22 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.274 | $1,415 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 7, 07:22 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.272 | $3,241 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 7, 06:49 PM | Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $2,307 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:49 PM | Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? | BUY NO | 0.741 | $2,284 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:21 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.393 | $5,322 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 08:58 AM | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.266 | $3,918 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 07:01 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.384 | $5,521 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 4, 06:46 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | BUY NO | 0.125 | $1,888 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 4, 04:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $1,078 | —— |
| Jun 3, 09:49 PM | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.280 | $1,483 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 09:41 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $3,926 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 10:18 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $4,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:18 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $19.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:13 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $65.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:13 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $59.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:38 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $46.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.035 | $1,097 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:31 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $48.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 07:15 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $2,801 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 07:00 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.008 | $2,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:52 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.400 | $8,854 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:27 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.362 | $3,628 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 01:32 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.159 | $3,126 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 01:24 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.297 | $5,420 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 01:22 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.284 | $2,443 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 12:51 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.780 | $1,754 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:50 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.785 | $1,684 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 10:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $3,512 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 03:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $1,131 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 03:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,223 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 03:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.210 | $2,102 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 01:56 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.370 | $1,426 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:19 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.240 | $1,114 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 04:19 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.395 | $3,356 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 09:27 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,458 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 12:23 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:03 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.240 | $1,937 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 01:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.368 | $2,978 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 01:56 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.847 | $6,121 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:55 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $26.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $23.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,711 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:57 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $6,420 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | BUY NO | 0.739 | $1,032 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,761 | —— |
| May 25, 10:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $3,184 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $3,337 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 09:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.289 | $2,004 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 09:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $4,204 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:39 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $9,105 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $1,860 | —— |
| May 25, 09:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $23.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,235 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $3,241 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $2,522 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $6,600 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 01:12 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.713 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:50 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $18.2K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 12:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $1,290 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 11:41 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $2,655 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 11:40 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $2,575 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 11:38 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.949 | $7,519 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:52 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.017 | $1,180 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:15 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.027 | $1,429 | —— |
| May 24, 02:13 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $9,901 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:30 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $3,241 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $1,253 | —— |
| May 24, 03:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $4,502 | —— |
| May 24, 03:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,550 | —— |
| May 24, 02:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $10.4K | —— |
| May 24, 02:46 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $2,264 | —— |
| May 24, 02:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $2,797 | —— |
| May 24, 02:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.270 | $1,752 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 02:08 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.334 | $19.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:42 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.690 | $6,711 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:33 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.152 | $1,180 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:32 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $1,494 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:42 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $2,704 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $2,305 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,100 | —— |
| May 24, 12:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.400 | $2,544 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $1,241 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 11:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.310 | $2,303 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.320 | $3,460 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $2,386 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 11:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $1,049 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 10:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $4,836 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $5,304 | —— |
| May 23, 10:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $5,227 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:43 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY NO | 0.019 | $1,309 | —— |
| May 23, 09:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.837 | $7,948 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.832 | $8,322 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.390 | $9,969 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 09:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $24.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $5,648 | —— |
| May 23, 09:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,212 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 09:04 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.948 | $107.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $1,813 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:25 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY NO | 0.150 | $1,005 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:25 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.239 | $3,133 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 01:23 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.470 | $1,444 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.120 | $3,832 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,207 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:52 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.517 | $5,409 | —— |
| May 22, 10:52 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $2,934 | —— |
| May 22, 10:27 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.412 | $1,796 | —— |
| May 22, 10:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.318 | $2,838 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $41.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.040 | $4,037 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:48 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $1,571 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:45 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $1,377 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:44 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.900 | $1,891 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:24 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.284 | $3,849 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 05:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,222 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 04:56 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.755 | $4,331 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 04:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $2,764 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 04:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,644 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 04:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,112 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 03:54 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $2,120 | —— |
| May 20, 03:33 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.809 | $2,157 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:17 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.664 | $3,167 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:16 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $21.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:16 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $3,418 | —— |
| May 20, 02:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $1,249 | —— |
| May 20, 02:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.677 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 01:05 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,259 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 01:05 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.476 | $4,095 | —— |
| May 19, 11:47 PM | Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.719 | $2,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 11:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $5,737 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 11:22 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.667 | $50.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 10:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $4,419 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 09:53 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.137 | $3,228 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 07:43 PM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.338 | $4,402 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:34 PM | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.617 | $9,784 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:21 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $9,984 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 03:05 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.422 | $3,425 | —— |
| May 18, 01:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,663 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 01:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.668 | $24.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 11:23 PM | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,608 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 05:18 PM | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.130 | $4,258 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 12:44 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.339 | $2,218 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |