| Jun 20, 08:48 PM | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.693 | $1,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 11:14 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 04:39 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 09:09 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.930 | $3,302 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 11:10 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $1,516 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 07:09 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $2,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 07:48 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.660 | $2,561 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 05:23 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $1,480 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:53 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $12.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 05:29 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,472 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:42 PM | Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY YES | 0.574 | $7,148 | —— |
| Jun 3, 08:28 PM | Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY NO | 0.559 | $1,645 | —— |
| Jun 3, 08:28 PM | Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY NO | 0.559 | $1,342 | —— |
| Jun 3, 05:40 AM | Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL YES | 0.800 | $1,600 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:01 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.595 | $1,729 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,865 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 05:54 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.992 | $3,967 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:06 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 05:31 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 04:38 PM | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.200 | $1,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 05:47 PM | Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY YES | 0.790 | $2,370 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 12:01 PM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.653 | $1,632 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 07:34 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $1,560 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 06:09 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 11:51 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.896 | $1,344 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 11:43 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.887 | $1,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:18 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.858 | $1,282 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 11:06 AM | Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $5,431 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:55 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $5,055 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 01:12 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $2,114 | —— |
| May 2, 08:47 AM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $1,158 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 11:21 PM | Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | BUY YES | 0.481 | $1,023 | —— |
| Apr 28, 10:49 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 09:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 09:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $4,574 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 09:00 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $7,976 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 08:46 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $6,979 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 08:43 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 08:42 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,994 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 09:10 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,196 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 03:26 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.587 | $1,028 | —— |
| Apr 17, 09:09 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.578 | $1,445 | —— |
| Apr 17, 07:33 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.523 | $1,476 | —— |
| Apr 11, 02:21 PM | 0x01ffd0ac | BUY NO | 0.706 | $1,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 04:56 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 04:30 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 04:30 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $4,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 04:30 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.966 | $7,328 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 07:04 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $8,561 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 08:04 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $5,200 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 07:50 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.240 | $1,920 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 2, 07:48 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:57 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,824 | —— |
| Apr 1, 06:56 AM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.920 | $1,840 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 05:35 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,115 | —— |
| Mar 31, 04:09 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $1,260 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 11:13 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $2,560 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 01:41 PM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $6,986 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 04:02 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,649 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 10:26 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $1,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 06:36 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $5,548 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 10:06 PM | 0xcab77c44 | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,791 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 10:05 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $4,000 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 12:10 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $3,552 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 07:07 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $8,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:08 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,800 | —— |
| Mar 23, 05:16 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $1,920 | —— |
| Mar 23, 04:19 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $1,515 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:45 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,494 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:45 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,510 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:29 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.879 | $4,396 | — (SELL) |