| Jun 7, 04:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $9,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:27 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $7,695 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:23 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $2,643 | —— |
| Jun 5, 11:23 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.549 | $1,821 | —— |
| Jun 2, 01:24 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $5,530 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $6,154 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 01:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:20 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,514 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $5,587 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:21 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $2,160 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:24 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,504 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 03:47 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $6,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 03:47 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $2,496 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 03:46 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $8,073 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 03:36 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,546 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 06:35 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.927 | $1,298 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 06:33 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 06:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $4,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:37 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $4,954 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:45 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,316 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 02:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $3,683 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 01:23 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,182 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,809 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:15 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,766 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $1,838 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:24 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,534 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $2,432 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:22 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.707 | $1,861 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:01 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.713 | $1,557 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:11 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 02:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,817 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 02:08 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.821 | $6,181 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:27 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.872 | $2,703 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:15 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $2,962 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:13 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.610 | $4,746 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 03:29 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $4,396 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.573 | $4,941 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 06:16 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $5,000 | —— |
| May 6, 02:09 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.813 | $4,841 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 02:09 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.856 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 02:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.819 | $9,987 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 03:34 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:33 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:57 AM | 0x940f0142 | SELL YES | 0.995 | $3,846 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 05:54 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:50 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.874 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:50 AM | Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $3,209 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 05:49 AM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $7,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 05:49 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 05:30 AM | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.415 | $4,186 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 11:59 PM | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.594 | $6,000 | —— |
| Apr 29, 11:58 PM | 0x940f0142 | BUY YES | 0.900 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 11:53 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $4,064 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 11:41 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $14.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 12:45 AM | Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? | BUY NO | 0.763 | $3,893 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 12:44 AM | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.973 | $3,960 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 12:34 AM | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $3,988 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 05:09 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.719 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 03:40 AM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.939 | $1,155 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 03:30 AM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 02:41 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.762 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 02:40 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.762 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 02:37 AM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $6,440 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 02:32 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $14.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 02:31 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.761 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 12:52 AM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 10:43 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,235 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 10:43 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $4,221 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 09:51 AM | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 09:48 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.602 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 09:48 AM | EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $1,520 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 09:39 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 09:36 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.583 | $1,700 | —— |
| Mar 31, 09:34 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.564 | $3,000 | —— |
| Mar 31, 09:11 AM | EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.795 | $2,344 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 09:07 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.419 | $1,282 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 08:08 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.463 | $1,007 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 04:57 AM | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,335 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 04:31 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.379 | $1,178 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 04:21 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.367 | $1,467 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 08:36 AM | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.634 | $9,821 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 08:35 AM | EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.828 | $9,975 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 05:04 AM | 0xcc079207 | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,754 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 05:02 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $10.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 05:00 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.790 | $14.3K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 04:09 AM | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 04:08 AM | Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $1,583 | — (SELL) |