| Jun 12, 09:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,821 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:35 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,577 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $3,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $9,115 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $13.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:15 PM | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,121 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:15 PM | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $2,257 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:31 AM | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $8,436 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 03:56 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 03:38 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $1,082 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 03:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $6,513 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:02 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $5,092 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:25 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $9,793 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:33 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.759 | $3,178 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:31 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $8,084 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:59 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $2,303 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:51 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.698 | $3,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:51 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,399 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:50 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.686 | $6,843 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:50 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $6,439 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 01:09 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.590 | $5,036 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 12:55 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.607 | $25.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 12:50 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.620 | $2,246 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 11:09 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $1,354 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 05:17 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $4,985 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:33 PM | Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $3,259 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:54 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $1,274 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $1,059 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 11:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.995 | $11.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,418 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 12:03 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $8,353 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $3,126 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 12:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $3,892 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $3,540 | —— |
| May 24, 03:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $5,606 | —— |
| May 24, 03:25 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $14.5K | —— |
| May 24, 01:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.710 | $3,192 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.618 | $6,169 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,898 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $13.7K | —— |
| May 23, 10:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.448 | $7,626 | —— |
| May 23, 10:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,722 | —— |
| May 23, 09:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $5,795 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.489 | $1,017 | —— |
| May 22, 04:01 AM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,536 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 04:28 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.720 | $2,301 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 11:45 PM | Chirayu Rana sued? | BUY YES | 0.915 | $12.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:58 PM | Chirayu Rana sued? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $9,279 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:45 PM | Chirayu Rana sued? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:44 PM | Chirayu Rana sued? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $8,470 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:11 PM | Chirayu Rana sued? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $2,336 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 02:14 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 02:12 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,946 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 02:12 AM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,886 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 02:04 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $9,445 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 04:01 PM | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $8,888 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 04:01 PM | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $1,109 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 04:42 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.692 | $7,806 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 04:39 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $1,775 | —— |
| Apr 15, 02:47 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $4,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 01:10 AM | 0x9b14ba5c | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 11:41 PM | 0xdc6f95f9 | BUY NO | 0.939 | $1,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 11:38 PM | 0xdc6f95f9 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,758 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:01 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $8,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:40 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $4,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 03:28 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $18.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:52 AM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:33 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $7,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:33 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $7,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:27 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:27 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $18.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:11 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 04:23 AM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $14.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 04:23 AM | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $9,135 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:25 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.220 | $3,482 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 11:06 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.898 | $5,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:06 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.891 | $1,035 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:05 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.940 | $15.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:03 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $8,689 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:01 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $3,192 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:59 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.980 | $1,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:58 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $1,133 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:58 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $2,307 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:42 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $16.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:20 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $8,477 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:20 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $2,797 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:12 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $2,490 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:10 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $12.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:08 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $9,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:07 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $9,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 04:07 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $9,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 02:07 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.360 | $5,442 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 03:55 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.830 | $15.8K | — (SELL) |