| Jun 13, 02:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.539 | $1,832 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.507 | $1,510 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:37 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,520 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 05:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $2,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,664 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.436 | $17.6K | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.475 | $13.3K | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $27.3K | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $3,955 | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.459 | $3,339 | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $4,896 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.437 | $7,303 | —— |
| Jun 11, 05:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.142 | $1,532 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.399 | $1,472 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.257 | $4,205 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 05:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $3,724 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $47.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.244 | $1,050 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 04:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $2,958 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:03 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $56.8K | —— |
| May 29, 03:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,264 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 03:54 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.296 | $2,069 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 03:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $2,125 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 06:52 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $1,909 | —— |
| May 28, 05:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $35.6K | —— |
| May 28, 04:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $3,078 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.371 | $14.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 03:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $1,979 | —— |
| May 28, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.503 | $2,720 | —— |
| May 27, 08:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $8,529 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 08:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $5,447 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 06:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,708 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $2,741 | —— |
| May 27, 04:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $1,224 | —— |
| May 27, 04:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.499 | $1,876 | —— |
| May 27, 01:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $12.7K | —— |
| May 27, 09:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $6,582 | —— |
| May 26, 09:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $27.1K | —— |
| May 26, 09:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,884 | —— |
| May 26, 08:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $8,477 | —— |
| May 26, 03:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $1,286 | —— |
| May 26, 02:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.419 | $2,524 | —— |
| May 26, 02:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $2,254 | —— |
| May 25, 05:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.108 | $3,767 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,875 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 01:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.304 | $23.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 01:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.299 | $3,793 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 02:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.297 | $5,710 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 02:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.538 | $7,062 | —— |
| May 24, 09:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,286 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 09:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $1,399 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 08:55 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $1,116 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 08:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $1,438 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 08:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $3,331 | —— |
| May 24, 07:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.396 | $6,237 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 07:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $2,243 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 06:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.529 | $2,539 | —— |
| May 24, 06:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.289 | $3,844 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 06:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $3,183 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 03:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $1,856 | —— |
| May 24, 03:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $2,445 | —— |
| May 24, 03:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.506 | $1,765 | —— |
| May 24, 02:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.357 | $2,948 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,255 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $11.0K | —— |
| May 24, 01:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $2,720 | —— |
| May 24, 12:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $11.6K | —— |
| May 24, 12:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $1,350 | —— |
| May 24, 12:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.802 | $1,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $1,917 | —— |
| May 24, 12:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.536 | $1,116 | —— |
| May 24, 12:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.357 | $2,253 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $53.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 05:56 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.772 | $13.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:56 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.787 | $85.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 04:53 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 06:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $20.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 12:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $24.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 12:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $49.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 08:05 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $498.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 05:35 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $7,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 07:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $14.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 05:02 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $22.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 12:12 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $42.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 02:02 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $30.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |