The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x0c0e…434e with our methodology badges per row.

0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

110

lifetime

PnL per $

-17%

historical realized

Win rate

78.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.54M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 110 resolved trades · -17% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

196

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$2.27M

avg $11.6K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.90M / $366.4K

net direction

Recent trades

last 196 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 11, 03:18 AM	Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,459	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:17 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:17 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.968	$18.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:43 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$29.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:16 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.910	$54.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:54 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.720	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:57 PM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.995	$4,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:06 PM	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL YES	0.012	$1,050	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:28 AM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$2,254	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 02:04 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	BUY NO	0.820	$8,572	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:56 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.972	$6,859	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 08:21 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.850	$7,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:47 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY NO	0.961	$9,153	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:08 AM	Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.995	$18.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:08 AM	Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,050	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:26 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$25.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:49 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.760	$40.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:48 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.590	$1,293	—
Jun 1, 01:15 PM	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL YES	0.052	$1,091	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:59 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$2,862	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:59 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$21.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:44 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,981	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:33 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$199.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:31 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.720	$2,304	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:31 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,321	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:30 AM	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.973	$2,033	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:29 AM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$6,745	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:27 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	BUY NO	0.800	$7,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:27 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.963	$7,582	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:25 AM	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	BUY YES	0.964	$2,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:36 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$6,918	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:06 AM	Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL YES	0.008	$4,775	— (SELL)
May 30, 11:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.930	$18.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.710	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:33 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	BUY NO	0.979	$7,813	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:29 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$18.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:28 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$25.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:27 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	BUY NO	0.790	$9,778	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:27 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:27 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$48.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:26 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.905	$42.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:24 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.944	$3,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:52 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.620	$5,725	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:46 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$24.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:48 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.650	$4,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:39 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.992	$9,920	— (SELL)
May 27, 07:24 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.992	$5,952	— (SELL)
May 27, 12:24 PM	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	BUY NO	0.968	$4,583	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:24 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.810	$4,756	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:23 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.530	$1,400	—
May 27, 12:20 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 09:08 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.984	$85.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:13 PM	New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	SELL NO	0.960	$5,568	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:26 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$20.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:25 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.991	$44.3K	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:09 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.991	$29.7K	— (SELL)
May 26, 05:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$7,830	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:38 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:26 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.840	$5,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:17 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.990	$4,914	— (SELL)
May 26, 03:08 AM	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	BUY NO	0.961	$2,846	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:24 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$17.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:20 AM	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	BUY YES	0.958	$1,407	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:20 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.977	$2,483	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:19 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.610	$2,923	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:18 PM	New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:08 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.950	$13.6K	— (SELL)
May 17, 02:48 PM	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY NO	0.816	$5,444	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:29 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.965	$3,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:28 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	SELL NO	0.940	$10.2K	— (SELL)
May 16, 06:45 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.957	$1,783	— (SELL)
May 16, 06:32 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:06 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$3,091	— (SELL)
May 16, 03:06 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$1,821	— (SELL)
May 16, 02:11 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.940	$33.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:10 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL NO	0.978	$7,952	— (SELL)
May 16, 02:08 PM	New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	BUY NO	0.948	$4,793	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:06 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$9,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.956	$3,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:40 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.968	$6,848	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:21 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$9,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:55 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$30.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:42 PM	New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,467	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 09:38 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 13, 07:46 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 13, 06:08 PM	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	BUY YES	0.999	$8,625	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 05:23 PM	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	BUY YES	0.992	$1,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:25 PM	New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,690	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 12:55 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.730	$3,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 12:29 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.540	$3,881	—
May 13, 12:27 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.920	$6,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:43 PM	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	BUY YES	0.988	$2,979	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 04:09 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.996	$4,217	— (SELL)
May 12, 04:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.910	$54.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:54 AM	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	SELL NO	0.959	$1,424	— (SELL)
May 10, 08:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.840	$17.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 03:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,160	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:10 PM	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL NO	0.995	$1,026	— (SELL)
May 9, 05:10 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,739	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:09 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 03:32 PM	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	BUY YES	0.900	$7,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 03:20 AM	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	SELL YES	0.943	$1,062	— (SELL)
May 4, 06:36 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.972	$15.5K	— (SELL)
May 4, 03:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$27.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 02:06 AM	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	BUY YES	0.943	$1,414	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 02:14 PM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL YES	0.996	$10.2K	— (SELL)
May 2, 06:07 PM	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL NO	0.934	$3,860	— (SELL)
May 1, 03:58 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.972	$9,829	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 09:13 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,343	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 02:44 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,554	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 02:43 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 02:41 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$67.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 01:31 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.780	$7,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 01:30 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,097	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 06:33 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.720	$6,974	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 05:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.710	$6,653	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 05:15 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,951	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:47 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$6,468	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:43 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$9,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 07:52 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$7,805	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 07:42 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,120	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:35 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.996	$86.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:33 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,792	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 12:44 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.992	$8,313	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 12:43 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.992	$8,317	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 12:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.996	$49.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 27, 01:18 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,562	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 03:11 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.850	$21.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 12:53 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.920	$18.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 02:59 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	SELL NO	0.992	$4,362	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:41 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.860	$9,755	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 05:08 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.840	$7,579	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 05:03 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY NO	0.970	$5,514	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 05:02 AM	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 12:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.970	$49.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 12:29 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.969	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 05:23 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.880	$9,282	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:27 AM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY YES	0.941	$3,952	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:23 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:22 AM	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	SELL NO	0.995	$2,990	— (SELL)
Apr 22, 04:15 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$7,864	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:14 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.850	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 12:53 AM	Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	SELL YES	0.999	$9,990	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 11:45 PM	Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?	BUY NO	0.919	$3,632	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 11:34 PM	0x38e8e723	BUY NO	0.943	$8,141	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 05:31 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.981	$3,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 04:06 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$9,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 03:52 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$4,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 05:20 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$7,867	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.760	$3,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 10:15 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.730	$1,939	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 04:29 AM	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY YES	0.438	$3,893	—
Apr 17, 02:48 AM	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,697	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:47 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	BUY NO	0.978	$4,531	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:46 AM	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	BUY NO	0.954	$6,085	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 06:36 PM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$37.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:54 PM	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	BUY NO	0.992	$3,134	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:54 PM	0x10d4b55e	BUY NO	0.998	$34.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 09:47 PM	Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,731	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 05:28 PM	0x0e47ad37	BUY YES	0.999	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 11:19 PM	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$21.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:57 PM	0x10d4b55e	BUY NO	0.980	$2,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:57 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.820	$7,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:50 PM	0x3ed8d5fa	BUY YES	0.996	$5,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:49 PM	0x02230382	BUY YES	0.989	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:47 PM	0x02230382	BUY YES	0.987	$2,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:53 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.941	$3,952	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:52 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$19.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:49 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	SELL NO	0.995	$12.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 11, 05:45 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$3,591	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:45 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.934	$1,133	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:45 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$2,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 04:03 PM	Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	BUY YES	0.920	$18.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 02:46 AM	Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:05 PM	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?	BUY NO	0.981	$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:03 PM	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	BUY NO	0.974	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 02:54 AM	0xfee70407	BUY YES	0.950	$2,250	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 03:04 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	BUY NO	0.995	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 03:04 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	BUY NO	0.994	$34.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 12:21 AM	0x09c3c088	BUY NO	0.999	$2,412	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:43 PM	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.650	$6,210	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:41 PM	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL YES	0.010	$1,626	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 02:06 PM	Netanyahu out by April 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,503	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:56 PM	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY NO	0.971	$2,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:55 PM	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,084	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:55 PM	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY NO	0.921	$3,721	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:54 PM	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY NO	0.954	$4,139	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:54 PM	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY NO	0.784	$4,357	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:01 PM	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY NO	0.968	$1,776	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:00 PM	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL YES	0.175	$5,997	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 06:59 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$20.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 04:39 PM	0x17bbbc84	BUY	0.990	$8,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 02:34 AM	0xbd20296a	BUY NO	0.992	$2,157	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 01:59 PM	0xf6c566e3	BUY NO	0.995	$3,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 01:08 PM	0x551f9d23	BUY NO	0.989	$5,644	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

84 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	3	$227.2K	+$227.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Tech	6	$213.8K	$-59,096
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	13	$205.0K	+$173.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	9	$162.5K	+$162.5K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Tech	8	$151.6K	$-6,250
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	11	$148.1K	+$131.7K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Tech	8	$143.7K	+$143.7K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Tech	4	$69.6K	+$69.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	5	$53.9K	+$53.9K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Other	3	$49.9K	+$29.6K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	Tech	7	$49.5K	+$49.5K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Other	1	$42.0K	+$42.0K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Finance	6	$38.6K	+$38.6K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	3	$38.1K	+$11.0K
0x10d4b55e	—	2	$36.8K	+$36.8K
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	Crypto	1	$34.4K	+$34.4K
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	Other	3	$29.6K	+$9,661
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Finance	2	$28.4K	+$28.4K
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Other	3	$27.7K	+$21.7K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Tech	3	$25.9K	+$25.9K
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	Crypto	2	$25.8K	$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	2	$25.4K	$-5,694
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Finance	4	$23.4K	+$23.4K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Tech	6	$22.5K	+$20.3K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?	Crypto	1	$20.5K	+$20.5K
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Politics	2	$19.8K	+$19.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	1	$18.2K	+$18.2K
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?	Politics	5	$16.6K	+$5,478
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	Crypto	2	$16.1K	+$16.1K
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?	Crypto	1	$15.8K	+$15.8K

Showing top 30 by volume.