| Jul 20, 04:23 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $2,490 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 03:45 PM | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.557 | $1,002 | —— |
| Jul 20, 07:58 AM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $6,239 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:25 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $3,154 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 05:07 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,156 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 04:10 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY NO | 0.841 | $1,511 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 04:10 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.759 | $3,038 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 01:10 AM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $7,360 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 09:56 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,186 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 09:18 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.152 | $3,495 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 09:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 09:16 PM | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.137 | $1,574 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 09:14 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $3,060 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 09:08 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $4,343 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 08:19 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.705 | $2,537 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 07:27 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $4,455 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 07:26 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.717 | $1,290 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 07:12 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $1,615 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 07:12 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $3,280 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 07:10 PM | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,710 | —— |
| Jul 18, 01:14 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,950 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 07:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.016 | $1,250 | —— |
| Jul 17, 07:34 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL NO | 0.610 | $2,013 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 07:09 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.798 | $2,394 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 07:06 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $1,530 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 07:06 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $4,251 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 01:45 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $1,564 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 12:31 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $2,160 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 06:51 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY YES | 0.183 | $1,464 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 03:05 PM | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $9,446 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 11:23 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 01:31 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.717 | $1,362 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 01:30 AM | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.785 | $2,242 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 08:50 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $5,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:40 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $3,996 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 11:39 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $3,480 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 04:57 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY YES | 0.168 | $1,006 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 04:56 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,225 | —— |
| Jul 12, 04:56 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $1,955 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 01:42 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | SELL NO | 0.815 | $3,666 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 12:16 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.042 | $3,789 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 12:09 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $2,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 02:30 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY YES | 0.317 | $2,666 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 02:30 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,701 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 11, 10:45 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $15.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 09:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $6,080 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 02:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 9, 08:46 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL NO | 0.451 | $1,354 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 08:46 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,095 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 07:05 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,715 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:59 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.932 | $1,374 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $2,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:55 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY NO | 0.689 | $1,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 03:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $3,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 11:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.410 | $2,050 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 11:21 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $2,546 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 09:21 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $1,079 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 07:00 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | SELL NO | 0.714 | $1,856 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 05:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 05:08 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 05:08 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.869 | $13.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 05:08 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.901 | $1,262 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 02:46 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $3,979 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 07:59 PM | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.499 | $1,077 | —— |
| Jul 7, 07:58 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.345 | $4,144 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 06:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,330 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 03:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,840 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 03:14 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY NO | 0.552 | $8,275 | —— |
| Jul 7, 02:54 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $1,786 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 02:52 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL YES | 0.690 | $3,450 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 02:51 PM | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL NO | 0.536 | $7,087 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 09:57 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL YES | 0.680 | $1,595 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 09:10 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY YES | 0.679 | $8,823 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 08:54 PM | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.497 | $9,445 | —— |
| Jul 4, 08:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $5,740 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 08:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $13.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 04:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $3,050 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 02:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $3,420 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 02:58 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $13.6K | —— |
| Jun 29, 12:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $7,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 28, 08:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.600 | $4,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 05:29 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $2,334 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 04:44 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $5,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 03:56 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 03:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 28, 03:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,690 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 28, 03:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $2,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 02:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.969 | $7,240 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 07:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.450 | $2,250 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 01:19 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $5,609 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 06:51 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $4,920 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 10:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.700 | $2,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 01:44 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $1,433 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 07:10 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $3,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 06:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,351 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 03:08 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.450 | $1,196 | —— |
| Jun 13, 03:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.210 | $1,890 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.189 | $2,841 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $2,280 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.245 | $1,377 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $2,065 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 02:14 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY YES | 0.424 | $1,786 | —— |
| Jun 13, 01:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $1,220 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $3,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 06:20 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,181 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 05:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $3,998 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,572 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 01:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 11:41 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $3,080 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 09:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,259 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 09:21 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,422 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $1,620 | —— |
| Jun 11, 11:14 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,560 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,213 | —— |
| Jun 11, 10:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $6,320 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $3,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.558 | $1,116 | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:09 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $1,922 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $15.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $3,360 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $3,360 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $8,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 12:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $4,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 12:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $7,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 04:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $4,920 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 02:53 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:37 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:36 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:36 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 12:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.718 | $5,746 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,602 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 11:48 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $3,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 07:56 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $2,490 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 07:46 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.842 | $4,208 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 07:20 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $5,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 07:18 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $3,360 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 07:14 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $2,550 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:52 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.751 | $3,755 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $3,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $2,480 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $3,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $2,921 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:55 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $2,160 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.580 | $2,320 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:48 PM | 0x71c49500 | SELL YES | 0.251 | $1,004 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,520 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:03 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY YES | 0.794 | $2,964 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:59 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.617 | $1,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.630 | $1,890 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $2,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 12:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $2,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 11:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $2,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 11:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $2,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 06:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $3,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $2,911 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,660 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:46 PM | 0xb4067f81 | SELL NO | 0.962 | $2,404 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:39 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.679 | $2,716 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:37 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | SELL NO | 0.936 | $1,123 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $9,387 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.684 | $4,141 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.163 | $17.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $9,920 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $11.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:39 PM | 0xbfca16aa | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 03:38 PM | 0xbfca16aa | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,972 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 12:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 09:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $5,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,488 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $1,681 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.612 | $5,685 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:35 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.610 | $4,880 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,160 | —— |
| May 25, 08:33 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.950 | $2,375 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:20 PM | 0x92485347 | SELL YES | 0.963 | $1,926 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:49 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.956 | $9,561 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:48 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | SELL YES | 0.952 | $4,571 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 06:08 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.986 | $3,451 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 06:08 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | SELL YES | 0.962 | $3,848 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 06:08 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.960 | $5,762 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 06:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.976 | $1,464 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:49 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.986 | $1,479 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:22 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.987 | $2,494 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.460 | $1,840 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 10:46 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.980 | $3,142 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 08:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.510 | $3,060 | —— |
| May 24, 06:42 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.982 | $1,098 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,743 | —— |
| May 24, 06:24 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.981 | $3,924 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $1,960 | —— |
| May 24, 04:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 24, 03:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.520 | $1,040 | —— |
| May 24, 02:37 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,000 | —— |
| May 24, 02:29 PM | 0xb4067f81 | SELL NO | 0.930 | $8,370 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:13 AM | 0xb4067f81 | BUY NO | 0.953 | $5,718 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:04 AM | 0x9bdb4d01 | SELL YES | 0.690 | $1,443 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:03 AM | 0xb4067f81 | BUY NO | 0.956 | $4,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $2,050 | —— |