| Jun 20, 10:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $105.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 07:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $9,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 07:24 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $6,032 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 07:07 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $53.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:01 AM | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $8,826 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 04:01 AM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $141.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 10:04 PM | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,884 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:59 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $9,839 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:49 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $49.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:49 PM | Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $1,145 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:48 PM | Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $11.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:17 PM | Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $50.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:09 PM | Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? | BUY YES | 0.966 | $1,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:55 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.957 | $20.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:35 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $7,416 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:26 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $3,611 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.538 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:01 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:01 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,473 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $2,044 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.963 | $43.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:11 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.918 | $4,244 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:05 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.917 | $12.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:41 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $7,496 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:53 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.959 | $7,520 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:19 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $4,030 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:32 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $5,709 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:22 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.862 | $17.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:22 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.677 | $7,781 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:22 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.947 | $6,247 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:21 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.976 | $3,503 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:21 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $4,137 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $2,473 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:56 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.959 | $9,593 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $28.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:41 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $16.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:16 AM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.942 | $3,158 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:14 AM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $4,899 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:09 AM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $3,879 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:23 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $3,134 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:23 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $9,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:52 AM | Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $2,721 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:51 AM | Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,644 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:39 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $107.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 09:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $28.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $38.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:37 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $7,937 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:31 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:59 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $28.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 01:28 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,404 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 11:10 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $2,272 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $19.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 12:38 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.988 | $9,536 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 12:14 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.988 | $18.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 12:01 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:06 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $18.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 02:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $6,085 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 02:25 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $237.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 11:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $19.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 11:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.700 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 11:00 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $8,081 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:42 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $7,986 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:10 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.222 | $1,716 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 8, 06:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $28.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:21 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $12.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:04 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.689 | $17.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:00 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $399.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 01:05 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $19.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 01:05 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.887 | $17.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 11:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.877 | $23.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 02:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $81.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $17.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 04:32 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $16.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 12:55 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $3,115 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 12:26 AM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,464 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 12:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $8,669 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 12:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $31.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 12:02 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $12.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 12:01 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 11:45 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,272 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 06:06 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:32 AM | Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,910 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:32 AM | Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,709 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:54 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $3,872 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 04:47 AM | Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 03:51 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.970 | $12.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 03:49 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.807 | $18.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:37 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $16.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 01:17 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $21.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $23.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:48 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $2,006 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:45 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $2,362 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 10:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.456 | $5,210 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 10:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 10:01 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $10.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 03:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.812 | $5,910 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 02:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.814 | $18.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 02:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $1,081 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 01:53 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | SELL YES | 0.710 | $1,159 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 02:25 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 12:03 AM | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $3,383 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 12:03 AM | Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,843 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 11:38 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $3,093 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 11:23 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,581 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 10:06 PM | Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.785 | $1,169 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 09:55 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,367 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 09:15 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $4,719 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:15 PM | Will Trump say "Miner" 3+ times during coal announcement? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:01 PM | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.828 | $1,796 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 07:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $37.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $79.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:02 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:43 PM | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $14.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:42 PM | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $4,084 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $5,949 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:13 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,103 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:12 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.503 | $1,896 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 02:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $10.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 04:11 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $8,337 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:44 AM | Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $5,176 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:44 AM | Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,993 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:43 AM | Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,638 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:42 AM | Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $6,434 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:42 AM | Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $5,737 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:42 AM | Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $6,113 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $16.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $7,999 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 02:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $1,260 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:55 AM | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.915 | $4,843 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 04:27 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.966 | $20.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 03:55 AM | Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.862 | $1,359 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 03:36 AM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $1,726 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 03:36 AM | Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $3,082 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 03:34 AM | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.793 | $5,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 03:34 AM | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.864 | $4,816 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 02:48 AM | Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $1,980 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 02:16 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $2,411 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 01:52 AM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,096 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:59 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $14.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:54 PM | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.824 | $1,769 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:53 PM | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL YES | 0.692 | $6,545 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:48 PM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.903 | $1,312 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:48 PM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.904 | $3,874 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:47 PM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.910 | $1,820 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:47 PM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.911 | $1,890 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:46 PM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.906 | $4,286 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 05:53 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:12 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $12.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:09 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $8,656 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:46 PM | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | BUY YES | 0.988 | $23.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:44 PM | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $4,826 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:39 PM | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $3,286 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:51 AM | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 03:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $17.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:51 AM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.945 | $14.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 10:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $18.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 10:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $38.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 03:51 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.964 | $4,820 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 09:01 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $34.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $51.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $20.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:23 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:55 AM | Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:54 AM | X Money released by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,091 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:39 AM | Trump ballroom project unblocked by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,512 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:32 AM | Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,856 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:26 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $9,172 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:25 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $2,476 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:17 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,434 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:15 AM | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,917 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:14 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,311 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:13 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.892 | $1,974 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:11 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.893 | $5,889 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:10 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $2,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:36 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,092 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:32 AM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $10.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:29 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:21 AM | Grok 4.4 released by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,139 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:07 AM | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $2,322 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:07 AM | Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,525 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $13.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:02 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,597 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:02 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $2,962 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:02 AM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $5,140 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:59 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,418 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:57 AM | Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,519 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:57 AM | Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:56 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $99.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:54 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $3,495 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:54 AM | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $2,480 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:53 AM | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,066 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:53 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:53 AM | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $2,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:51 AM | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,392 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:49 AM | Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,439 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |