| Jun 13, 02:32 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY YES | 0.097 | $1,407 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.620 | $1,697 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $1,690 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 04:39 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.881 | $1,193 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 04:28 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $3,171 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,402 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $4,662 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.670 | $6,461 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 10:55 AM | 0x5b4be999 | BUY YES | 0.460 | $2,377 | —— |
| May 26, 10:55 AM | 0x5b4be999 | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,289 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 10:55 AM | 0x5b4be999 | BUY YES | 0.291 | $1,102 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 26, 02:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $3,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 07:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.727 | $3,634 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $1,750 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:49 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 06:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.605 | $1,828 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.626 | $1,285 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $3,575 | —— |
| May 23, 08:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.763 | $2,007 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $2,094 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,564 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.761 | $3,125 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.772 | $4,521 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:20 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.703 | $3,452 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:41 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.619 | $1,264 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:40 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.201 | $1,342 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:21 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.711 | $3,416 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:02 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.543 | $2,377 | —— |
| May 23, 09:01 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.536 | $1,090 | —— |
| May 23, 08:57 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $1,613 | —— |
| May 23, 02:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $1,105 | —— |
| May 22, 11:08 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.207 | $1,073 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.516 | $1,538 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $2,142 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.422 | $4,041 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $1,648 | —— |
| May 22, 12:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $2,411 | —— |
| May 21, 09:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $1,296 | —— |
| May 21, 08:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.371 | $2,197 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:14 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.291 | $1,374 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $1,750 | —— |
| May 20, 09:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $4,817 | —— |
| May 20, 09:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $3,113 | —— |
| May 20, 08:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,352 | —— |
| May 20, 07:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $2,951 | —— |
| May 20, 07:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.502 | $9,836 | —— |
| May 20, 06:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $3,786 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $3,800 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:00 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,613 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $10.0K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 18, 09:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $2,565 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 09:39 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.349 | $1,957 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.301 | $1,741 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 06:23 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $2,059 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:15 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $2,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:15 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $1,335 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:13 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.855 | $1,576 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:13 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.847 | $1,507 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:10 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.793 | $1,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:10 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,340 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:10 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $1,696 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:10 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $1,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $5,133 | —— |
| May 10, 08:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.720 | $10.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.407 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 01:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $3,094 | —— |
| May 10, 12:44 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.301 | $1,165 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 06:32 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.449 | $2,014 | —— |
| May 9, 06:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.730 | $4,868 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 10:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $2,238 | —— |
| May 7, 10:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.576 | $3,485 | —— |
| May 7, 10:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,030 | —— |
| May 7, 10:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.559 | $5,568 | —— |
| May 7, 10:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.535 | $4,068 | —— |
| May 7, 10:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.501 | $3,012 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.545 | $2,944 | —— |
| May 7, 09:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.517 | $2,475 | —— |
| May 7, 09:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.472 | $4,968 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.483 | $7,091 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.507 | $5,165 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 11:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $2,305 | —— |
| May 6, 08:56 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.349 | $3,218 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 6, 08:50 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $4,480 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 11:35 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.321 | $1,411 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 11:03 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.337 | $3,004 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 10:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $9,893 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 03:46 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $3,244 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 03:25 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $1,247 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 02:15 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $5,597 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 4, 08:12 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $2,418 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 07:53 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL YES | 0.280 | $1,372 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 07:51 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $2,320 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 07:26 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY YES | 0.329 | $15.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 4, 03:42 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL YES | 0.273 | $4,117 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 03:16 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY YES | 0.278 | $3,974 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 4, 03:14 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.661 | $1,802 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 01:02 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.660 | $4,103 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 10:11 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.670 | $1,032 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $8,046 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 08:40 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $2,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 08:39 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $3,471 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 08:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $9,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 3, 02:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $10.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 1, 06:55 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $1,507 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:54 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY YES | 0.623 | $1,309 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:49 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $1,044 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 04:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.460 | $1,838 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 03:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $6,561 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 02:49 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.510 | $2,958 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 12:57 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.520 | $3,142 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 12:16 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $2,273 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 11:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $19.9K | —— |
| Apr 29, 05:56 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.310 | $1,597 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 05:29 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,085 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 29, 05:27 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.335 | $3,849 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 25, 02:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.340 | $8,055 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:49 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.505 | $1,901 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 04:42 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.265 | $1,254 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 08:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.590 | $2,082 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 07:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,462 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 06:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.601 | $1,010 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 06:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 06:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $2,675 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 01:54 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.466 | $1,269 | —— |
| Apr 20, 01:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $1,333 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 11:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.599 | $4,796 | —— |
| Apr 20, 11:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.358 | $3,894 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 20, 11:43 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.705 | $3,323 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 02:38 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.613 | $1,494 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 05:32 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL YES | 0.591 | $2,921 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 05:26 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL YES | 0.634 | $1,816 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 05:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.612 | $7,214 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 03:19 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $2,177 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 03:18 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.731 | $2,043 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 02:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $2,985 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 02:58 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.510 | $4,996 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 02:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.510 | $4,081 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 02:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.521 | $2,871 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 01:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.555 | $2,733 | —— |
| Apr 17, 01:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.539 | $3,269 | —— |
| Apr 17, 01:01 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.695 | $1,942 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 12:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.579 | $2,695 | —— |
| Apr 17, 12:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $4,719 | —— |
| Apr 17, 12:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,822 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,261 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $2,316 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:44 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $4,992 | —— |
| Apr 17, 12:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $4,988 | —— |