peoplearestrange

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x182b…f3d3 with our methodology badges per row.

0x182bd8bf2f11a572c4ec686aae3a0d919adcf3d3·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-57%

historical realized

Win rate

39.5%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$461.2K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 18 resolved trades · -57% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$849.8K

avg $19.8K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$419.9K / $430.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 43 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 12:29 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.963	$1,878	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 11:09 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.962	$32.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 08:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.790	$7,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:56 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.973	$9,912	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 12:41 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.620	$14.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:41 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.821	$18.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:19 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.650	$1,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:26 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.638	$6,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:52 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.620	$5,602	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.822	$49.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 11:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.820	$32.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 11:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,055	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 10:53 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.830	$29.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 08:57 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.800	$1,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 06:59 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.779	$2,928	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:20 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.770	$8,779	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:19 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.764	$5,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:14 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.760	$6,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 11:56 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.840	$29.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 11:56 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.740	$5,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:02 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.985	$7,295	— (SELL)
May 29, 01:51 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.630	$8,278	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.630	$1,589	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:44 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.994	$49.8K	— (SELL)
May 27, 12:06 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.972	$43.8K	— (SELL)
May 25, 11:37 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.966	$72.4K	— (SELL)
May 25, 12:31 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.966	$29.0K	— (SELL)
May 24, 07:10 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.963	$23.8K	— (SELL)
May 24, 04:28 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.690	$5,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:12 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.894	$47.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:11 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.973	$92.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:50 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.949	$28.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 11:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.690	$3,262	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 11:44 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.680	$31.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:17 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.670	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:48 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.637	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:23 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.620	$47.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 11:49 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.600	$12.8K	—
May 6, 11:58 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.555	$14.9K	—
May 6, 11:47 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.500	$1,491	—
May 2, 12:02 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.620	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:21 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.617	$9,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:20 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.607	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

6 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	8	$387.7K	$-49,900
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	15	$303.7K	$-15,612
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	10	$84.9K	+$16.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	5	$43.2K	+$43.2K
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	3	$18.0K	$-1,864
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	2	$12.4K	$-2,185