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RobertoRubio

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x3c4c…dd95 with our methodology badges per row.

0x3c4c03892f47d3166ee049a48a73d4743a17dd95·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
24
lifetime
PnL per $
-0%
historical realized
Win rate
98.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$381.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 24 resolved trades · -0% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
52
Distinct markets
30
Volume (90d)
$749.1K
avg $14.4K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$674.0K / $75.0K
net direction

Recent trades

last 52 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 11, 09:41 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.850$2,042Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:41 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.710$5,690Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:40 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.680$12.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:37 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.930$23.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:35 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.995$41.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:20 AMIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY YES0.830$1,494Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:49 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.620$1,860Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:35 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.720$3,917Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:45 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.979$2,934Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:44 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.980$29.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:29 AMIran closes its airspace by May 27?BUY NO0.882$1,660Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:29 AMIran closes its airspace by May 24?BUY NO0.973$2,265Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 09:40 AMWill Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?BUY YES0.999$2,519Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 08:01 AMWill Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?BUY YES0.995$2,386Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:58 PMWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.983$3,930Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 07:20 AMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.984$1,262Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 07:20 AMWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.984$13.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 01:00 AMWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.975$3,917Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:58 AMWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.976$3,143Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 10:09 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?BUY NO0.993$23.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 09:19 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.999$25.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 03:22 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.790$8,797Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 01:00 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.999$136.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 09:27 AMWill SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.996$9,448Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 03:29 PM0x83b5e51cBUY NO0.985$6,895Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 10:16 AM0xdc6f95f9SELL NO0.901$13.5K— (SELL)
Apr 13, 10:15 AM0xdc6f95f9SELL NO0.899$28.6K— (SELL)
Apr 11, 02:42 PM0xdc6f95f9BUY NO0.992$3,501Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:40 PM0x7fec9ca2BUY YES0.995$3,625Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:40 PM0xdba42146BUY YES0.995$1,346Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:39 PM0xe9d2e51dBUY YES0.995$1,114Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:38 PM0xdc6f95f9BUY NO0.991$7,259Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:21 PM0xdc6f95f9BUY NO0.992$2,124Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:20 PM0xdc6f95f9BUY NO0.991$16.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 04:37 AM0x4c5701bcBUY YES0.998$1,597Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:06 AM0x4c5701bcBUY YES0.998$166.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 12:00 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.995$2,540Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 02:54 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.998$10.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 09:09 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.997$41.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 01:24 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?SELL YES0.830$21.4K— (SELL)
Apr 2, 05:18 PM0x6aa39e48BUY NO0.995$8,525Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:52 AM0xd50c434cBUY NO0.997$7,515Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 10:36 AMBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?BUY NO0.996$5,499Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:08 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.700$6,027Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:07 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.700$4,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:06 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.700$6,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:06 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.390$3,671Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 25, 06:54 AM0x24fb7c2dSELL YES0.999$1,998— (SELL)
Mar 24, 03:53 AM0x24fb7c2dSELL YES0.993$1,986— (SELL)
Mar 23, 01:39 PM0x24fb7c2dBUY YES0.988$2,401Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 11:25 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?SELL YES0.518$1,555— (SELL)
Mar 23, 11:24 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?SELL YES0.532$5,914— (SELL)

Markets active in

30 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x4c5701bc—2$168.3K+$168.3K
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Other1$136.9K+$136.9K
0xdc6f95f9—6$71.1K$-13,192
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other4$58.1K+$58.1K
US forces enter Iran by December 31?Other6$46.1K$-11,673
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Tech1$41.9K+$41.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech3$41.1K+$41.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Tech1$25.8K+$25.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Tech1$23.8K+$23.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech1$23.3K+$23.3K
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics2$17.8K+$17.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Other2$16.3K+$16.3K
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?Tech1$9,448+$9,448
0x6aa39e48—1$8,525+$8,525
0xd50c434c—1$7,515+$7,515
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics2$7,073+$7,073
0x83b5e51c—1$6,895+$6,895
0x24fb7c2d—3$6,385$-1,583
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Other1$5,690+$5,690
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Tech1$5,499+$5,499
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Other2$4,906+$4,906
0x7fec9ca2—1$3,625+$3,625
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Tech1$2,265+$2,265
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other1$2,042+$2,042
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech1$1,860+$1,860
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Tech1$1,660+$1,660
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Other1$1,494+$1,494
0xdba42146—1$1,346+$1,346
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics1$1,262+$1,262
0xe9d2e51d—1$1,114+$1,114