| Jun 9, 03:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $3,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:30 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.400 | $2,963 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 09:16 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $1,438 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:27 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $1,653 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 05:13 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.908 | $1,332 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 05:13 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.908 | $1,350 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 10:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,620 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 07:16 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,660 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:11 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $2,385 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:10 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $2,985 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 02:25 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $1,081 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 12:02 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $1,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 11:02 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $1,542 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:51 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $2,291 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $4,955 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $7,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:38 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,038 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.770 | $11.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:29 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $3,972 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:28 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,092 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:26 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $1,818 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:24 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $1,220 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.361 | $1,449 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:28 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $1,117 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,016 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $1,809 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $1,601 | —— |
| May 28, 02:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $6,783 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 09:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $1,132 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 09:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 09:28 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 09:17 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $4,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 09:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $3,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,496 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:09 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.719 | $1,814 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 02:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $1,745 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $3,000 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 08:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,100 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 08:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 11:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,973 | —— |
| May 26, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $2,662 | —— |
| May 26, 12:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $8,490 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.517 | $1,055 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.550 | $3,515 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.752 | $6,768 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 10:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.455 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 10:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.441 | $2,762 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 10:46 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,127 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:10 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $8,228 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $5,485 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $9,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $8,900 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:03 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,191 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 07:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.550 | $1,406 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.602 | $2,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:19 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | SELL NO | 0.942 | $1,096 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,459 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:25 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | SELL NO | 0.941 | $1,883 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:49 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.640 | $3,046 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:31 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $2,198 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:36 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $2,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:06 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,279 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:26 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $3,716 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:07 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.958 | $2,246 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:53 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.958 | $2,395 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:50 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $4,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 05:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,470 | —— |
| May 23, 04:03 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $6,986 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 04:01 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $2,505 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,045 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,350 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.405 | $2,027 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:59 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $1,078 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $2,160 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.996 | $9,960 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,351 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 01:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 12:05 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,052 | —— |
| May 22, 11:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.468 | $1,049 | —— |
| May 22, 11:48 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,782 | —— |
| May 22, 11:34 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $2,037 | —— |
| May 22, 11:28 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.871 | $1,954 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 11:10 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $1,187 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:05 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.550 | $1,652 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $1,213 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:03 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.851 | $1,702 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:03 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.853 | $1,563 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.440 | $1,051 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.320 | $1,266 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.441 | $1,776 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $2,189 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:18 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $3,308 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:16 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.820 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:32 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.979 | $8,292 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:19 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $3,532 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.730 | $3,650 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $2,410 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $2,338 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:49 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:22 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $1,227 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.985 | $9,854 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:15 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $2,275 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:15 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.850 | $4,904 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 01:48 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,686 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $3,012 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:54 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $1,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:54 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $1,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:12 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $1,139 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 09:12 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.850 | $2,342 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:56 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.971 | $1,942 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:07 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $3,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:00 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $3,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:59 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $3,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 10:47 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $1,377 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $1,271 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:44 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $4,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:43 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.850 | $1,145 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 02:47 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.910 | $1,820 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 05:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $3,797 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 04:44 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $3,490 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 04:16 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.642 | $3,607 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.610 | $1,220 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:34 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $2,734 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.880 | $1,999 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $3,074 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.907 | $6,649 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,566 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:12 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:10 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $1,705 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:09 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,795 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 01:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 01:38 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,607 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 01:08 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.700 | $1,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $2,413 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:06 PM | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,008 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,087 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $2,354 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:05 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $1,206 | —— |
| May 18, 06:23 PM | Iran leadership change by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,790 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 01:09 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $3,737 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 12:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,500 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 18, 12:17 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,394 | —— |
| May 18, 11:45 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $2,090 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 08:38 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $2,213 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:30 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $5,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 06:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $3,022 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 08:32 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $1,240 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 12:42 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.255 | $1,005 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 12:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $1,000 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 10:23 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $1,442 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 12:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $2,991 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 12:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $2,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 11:49 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $4,995 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 11:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $3,661 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 10:53 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.752 | $2,690 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:20 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:08 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 01:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $3,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:08 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.748 | $3,885 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 11:43 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $8,186 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 08:33 AM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $1,200 | —— |
| May 12, 08:25 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $1,413 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 08:21 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.684 | $3,546 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 06:02 PM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.772 | $1,945 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $2,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:14 PM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | SELL YES | 0.900 | $6,667 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.173 | $1,731 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $3,371 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 07:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $1,055 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $5,531 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 06:17 PM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $2,798 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 05:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,350 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:57 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $7,970 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 02:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $4,925 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 10:43 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.261 | $1,316 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 9, 10:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $2,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 10:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $4,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 03:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $1,481 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 03:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.420 | $2,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 03:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $4,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 10:14 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $4,824 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 03:19 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $2,760 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 01:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.505 | $2,526 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 01:40 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $1,182 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 08:55 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $2,500 | —— |
| May 6, 01:49 AM | Israel closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,871 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 07:25 PM | Israel closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,806 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 06:36 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,190 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 04:21 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 11:51 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,994 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 10:29 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,190 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 10:25 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:36 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,340 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 05:08 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $1,050 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 3, 05:24 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,620 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |