Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to

OtherEnds Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket ↗

YES price

9.5¢

current

Total volume

+$20.49M

+$8,329 / 24h

Liquidity

+$363.8K

Whale trades (90d)

42 distinct wallets

Whale buy volume

+$1.16M

last 90d, $10K+ trades

Whale sell volume

+$605.5K

last 90d

Net flow

+$559.3K

buy-side dominant

Conviction fires

trades passing wave-34 gate

Top wallets on this market

42 wallets · sorted by net buy

Wallet	Trades	Buy	Sell	Net	PnL/$	Gate
Llalalala	6	+$237.9K	+$56.3K	+$181.6K	-42%	—
Erasmus.	5	+$176.5K	$0	+$176.5K	-9%	—
stupid22	2	+$86.5K	$0	+$86.5K	+23%	🟢
GoriIIa	2	+$83.9K	$0	+$83.9K	-14%	—
yikaiz	4	+$141.9K	+$78.0K	+$63.9K	-32%	—
Clicker1	3	+$54.9K	$0	+$54.9K	+3%	—
aff3	2	+$52.9K	$0	+$52.9K	-10%	—
basedd	1	+$49.8K	$0	+$49.8K	-17%	—
afdafdafdafdafd	1	+$32.8K	$0	+$32.8K	+7%	—
TeamA	1	+$25.4K	$0	+$25.4K	—	—
ULYSSES18	1	+$25.3K	$0	+$25.3K	+1647%	—
Thomas58	1	+$19.3K	$0	+$19.3K	+5%	—
0x78322520D66C41d56703a0Fc152AEBe86C9dC6E3-1771273156473	1	+$15.5K	$0	+$15.5K	—	—
Djfere	1	+$14.5K	$0	+$14.5K	—	—
debased	2	+$24.6K	+$10.9K	+$13.7K	-29%	—
opulent	1	+$12.5K	$0	+$12.5K	—	—
denizz	1	+$11.7K	$0	+$11.7K	-10%	—
ScottyNooo	1	+$10.3K	$0	+$10.3K	-10%	—
99problems123	1	+$10.3K	$0	+$10.3K	-41%	—
0xc67c310db8677fdbb360ba40eeecb6690c809ad5	3	+$26.2K	+$21.7K	+$4,508	-48%	—
vitamin.eth	2	+$11.4K	+$12.7K	-$1,257	+8%	—
0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	3	+$17.8K	+$20.0K	-$2,247	+226%	🟢
0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050	1	$0	+$11.2K	-$11.2K	-75%	—
KrackenSruster	1	$0	+$11.3K	-$11.3K	-24%	—
0x88c4…129a	1	$0	+$11.6K	-$11.6K	-51%	—

Showing top 25 of 42 by net flow.

Recent whale trades

68 trades · ≥$10K · 90d window

When	Wallet	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 02:38 PM	Llalalala	BUY NO	0.890	+$65.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:53 PM	BTCGOOSE	BUY NO	0.870	+$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:07 AM	BTCGOOSE	SELL NO	0.870	+$26.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 01:19 PM	0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050	SELL NO	0.870	+$11.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:02 AM	Taikatalvi	SELL NO	0.860	+$11.6K	— (SELL)
May 28, 08:13 PM	SlavaUkraini	SELL NO	0.842	+$18.1K	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:13 PM	Erasmus.	BUY NO	0.839	+$68.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:13 PM	Erasmus.	BUY NO	0.849	+$23.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:52 AM	Llalalala	SELL NO	0.830	+$28.1K	— (SELL)
May 22, 11:33 PM	debased	SELL NO	0.830	+$10.9K	— (SELL)
May 21, 06:14 PM	debased	BUY NO	0.830	+$24.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 06:22 AM	Djfere	BUY YES	0.170	+$14.5K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 16, 11:09 PM	GoriIIa	BUY NO	0.830	+$56.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:07 PM	aff3	BUY NO	0.820	+$37.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:25 AM	twe2nty	SELL NO	0.810	+$20.3K	— (SELL)
May 10, 03:34 PM	0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	SELL NO	0.820	+$10.0K	— (SELL)
May 10, 03:08 PM	0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	SELL NO	0.820	+$10.0K	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:56 AM	gopfan2	SELL NO	0.830	+$12.4K	— (SELL)
May 8, 04:41 PM	vitamin.eth	SELL NO	0.840	+$12.7K	— (SELL)
May 7, 04:53 PM	Clicker1	BUY NO	0.870	+$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 06:43 PM	Llalalala	BUY NO	0.850	+$80.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 06:35 PM	Clicker1	BUY NO	0.840	+$20.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 01:35 PM	GoriIIa	BUY NO	0.840	+$27.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 12:47 PM	Clicker1	BUY NO	0.840	+$24.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:38 AM	basedd	BUY NO	0.830	+$49.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 04:16 PM	aff3	BUY NO	0.820	+$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 01:02 PM	afdafdafdafdafd	BUY NO	0.820	+$32.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:30 AM	stupid22	BUY NO	0.810	+$29.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:29 AM	stupid22	BUY NO	0.800	+$57.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:21 PM	vitamin.eth	BUY NO	0.800	+$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 05:23 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	SELL NO	0.790	+$23.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 04:41 PM	0x88c4…129a	SELL NO	0.770	+$11.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 04:32 PM	0x2974…9c23	SELL NO	0.777	+$14.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 12:02 AM	hollyber	SELL NO	0.793	+$26.5K	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 09:38 AM	Llalalala	SELL NO	0.830	+$28.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:16 PM	Llalalala	BUY NO	0.830	+$27.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:43 PM	yikaiz	BUY NO	0.825	+$80.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:42 PM	Llalalala	BUY NO	0.820	+$63.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 02:09 PM	NELF	SELL NO	0.810	+$11.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 15, 03:14 PM	Erasmus.	BUY NO	0.810	+$34.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:33 PM	Erasmus.	BUY NO	0.800	+$19.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:01 PM	0xc67c310db8677fdbb360ba40eeecb6690c809ad5	BUY NO	0.800	+$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 10:51 AM	0xc67c310db8677fdbb360ba40eeecb6690c809ad5	BUY NO	0.790	+$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 06:21 PM	opulent	BUY YES	0.247	+$12.5K	Cheap band — no rep
Apr 12, 01:34 PM	yikaiz	SELL NO	0.778	+$47.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:34 PM	yikaiz	SELL NO	0.763	+$30.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:00 PM	wan123	SELL NO	0.790	+$26.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:20 AM	Anjun	SELL NO	0.794	+$25.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 11, 11:46 PM	yikaiz	BUY NO	0.816	+$61.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 03:14 PM	TeamA	BUY NO	0.800	+$25.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 09:17 AM	0xc67c310db8677fdbb360ba40eeecb6690c809ad5	SELL NO	0.784	+$21.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 06:51 AM	denizz	BUY NO	0.770	+$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 10:46 PM	Erasmus.	BUY NO	0.789	+$31.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:20 AM	Maratk87	SELL YES	0.253	+$12.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 08:20 AM	Maratk87	SELL YES	0.240	+$17.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 3, 01:53 PM	99problems123	BUY YES	0.270	+$10.3K	Cheap band — no rep
Apr 2, 06:11 AM	0x5d2f…5034	SELL NO	0.753	+$33.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 06:35 PM	0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	BUY NO	0.780	+$17.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:26 PM	melidani	SELL NO	0.780	+$17.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 09:34 AM	chungguskhan	SELL NO	0.780	+$24.5K	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 07:07 AM	0x78322520D66C41d56703a0Fc152AEBe86C9dC6E3-1771273156473	BUY NO	0.780	+$15.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 04:56 PM	ULYSSES18	BUY NO	0.670	+$25.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 07:33 PM	mr.ozi	SELL NO	0.660	+$24.1K	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 11:32 AM	ChangeNameChangeLuck	SELL YES	0.328	+$25.5K	— (SELL)
Mar 29, 07:52 PM	KrackenSruster	SELL NO	0.636	+$11.3K	— (SELL)
Mar 29, 09:26 AM	Maratk87	BUY YES	0.340	+$10.9K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 26, 12:21 AM	Thomas58	BUY YES	0.330	+$19.3K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 23, 01:10 PM	ScottyNooo	BUY NO	0.650	+$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative

All trades pulled from on-chain Polymarket fills via the Polygon CTF Exchange. Methodology badges apply the same wave-34 classifier as /whales. Full per-wallet audit on /trader/[address].