| Jun 20, 08:34 PM | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.006 | $3,974 | —— |
| Jun 20, 08:24 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $18.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? | BUY NO | 0.877 | $3,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $5,854 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:15 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.017 | $1,140 | —— |
| May 25, 03:13 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $2,011 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:52 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.187 | $3,009 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $3,197 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 10:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $2,281 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.280 | $2,145 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.230 | $1,402 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:08 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,071 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $4,626 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:01 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.452 | $1,865 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $3,949 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,790 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,628 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.222 | $15.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $1,329 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:07 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.469 | $3,590 | —— |
| May 24, 04:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,120 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 04:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.447 | $1,383 | —— |
| May 24, 04:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.363 | $2,742 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:47 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $4,543 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:31 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.180 | $7,437 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 03:28 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $3,038 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:24 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.218 | $1,830 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 03:22 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.656 | $3,444 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:15 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.580 | $2,012 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,160 | —— |
| May 24, 03:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,273 | —— |
| May 24, 02:59 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,366 | —— |
| May 24, 02:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,170 | —— |
| May 24, 02:50 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $8,247 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:48 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.130 | $1,125 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $1,075 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:44 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.383 | $1,991 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:44 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.292 | $1,576 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 02:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $2,056 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $3,503 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,309 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:27 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $2,242 | —— |
| May 24, 02:27 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.582 | $4,478 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:13 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.303 | $1,814 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.670 | $2,101 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:07 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.413 | $1,487 | —— |
| May 24, 01:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.309 | $1,067 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:01 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $2,398 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 11:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.739 | $11.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.730 | $1,856 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $2,331 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.661 | $11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.670 | $2,066 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:59 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $6,423 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:08 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.182 | $1,715 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $3,463 | —— |
| May 23, 08:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.100 | $1,758 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $1,119 | —— |
| May 23, 08:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.598 | $2,456 | —— |
| May 23, 08:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.854 | $1,247 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:35 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.384 | $4,320 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:34 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.473 | $1,232 | —— |
| May 23, 08:34 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,100 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.327 | $3,099 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.216 | $1,264 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 06:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.423 | $1,537 | —— |
| May 23, 06:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.440 | $3,639 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $1,513 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 06:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.791 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $3,345 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.540 | $1,442 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.425 | $2,302 | —— |
| May 23, 06:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $2,407 | —— |
| May 23, 06:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.395 | $1,149 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $5,148 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $6,213 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:34 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.160 | $2,075 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.570 | $1,041 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $3,488 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 02:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.252 | $14.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.668 | $2,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.534 | $1,664 | —— |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.724 | $1,287 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.251 | $2,727 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,116 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.271 | $2,280 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:35 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $3,509 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 10:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $7,949 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 09:53 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $1,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:36 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.200 | $1,793 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 09:35 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.620 | $1,029 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:31 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $2,573 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $4,002 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $2,420 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 05:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,547 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 04:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.067 | $4,081 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 03:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,640 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 01:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $2,104 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 09:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,562 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:00 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $5,442 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 05:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $3,253 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:35 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.081 | $1,230 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 05:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,621 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 05:20 PM | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.743 | $1,214 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.069 | $1,113 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $3,874 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 02:31 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.221 | $1,518 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $1,022 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,278 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $3,360 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $2,392 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 06:18 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.058 | $7,285 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 05:45 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,184 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 05:32 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,187 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 12:13 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,451 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 11:53 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $14.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 12:03 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $2,373 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 11:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $2,536 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 04:00 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY YES | 0.147 | $2,086 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 03:40 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.304 | $10.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 12:26 AM | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.748 | $1,813 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 09:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.955 | $3,625 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 04:00 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,017 | —— |
| May 11, 03:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,794 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 02:34 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.268 | $3,627 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 11, 02:22 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $14.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 03:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.147 | $6,244 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 01:50 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $1,005 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 12:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.099 | $4,224 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 12:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $4,581 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 12:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.139 | $1,226 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 12:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $6,451 | —— |
| May 10, 02:18 AM | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $1,174 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 9, 06:44 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $105.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 06:39 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $4,988 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 05:10 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.990 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:05 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.781 | $1,053 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 07:40 PM | Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.311 | $1,315 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 04:11 PM | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,382 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $6,144 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 06:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $2,849 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 6, 06:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.139 | $2,469 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 3, 10:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $7,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 04:34 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,583 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 1, 02:45 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.108 | $1,165 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 1, 02:44 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $2,331 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 30, 09:40 PM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $4,025 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 09:39 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $29.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 09:39 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.994 | $25.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 09:38 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $99.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 03:59 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $16.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 03:55 PM | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $1,858 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 08:49 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY YES | 0.525 | $1,155 | —— |
| Apr 28, 07:25 PM | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.035 | $1,450 | —— |
| Apr 28, 04:45 PM | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.136 | $1,054 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 28, 12:37 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,269 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 03:50 AM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $3,875 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 07:14 PM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $1,144 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 06:25 PM | Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.249 | $1,249 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 27, 04:03 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $2,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:53 PM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $4,188 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:53 PM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $3,610 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:53 PM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.951 | $9,092 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:51 PM | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.608 | $13.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:51 PM | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $8,996 | —— |
| Apr 24, 02:17 PM | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $43.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 02:13 PM | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $15.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 05:17 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $25.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 05:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $2,041 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 04:56 AM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $2,625 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 08:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $3,475 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 20, 08:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $3,785 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 04:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,422 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 20, 04:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.159 | $1,211 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 20, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.152 | $1,343 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 02:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $3,050 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 20, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,307 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 02:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $1,775 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 02:04 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL YES | 0.101 | $1,423 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 01:43 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.447 | $3,054 | —— |
| Apr 20, 01:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $3,766 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 20, 01:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $2,719 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 20, 01:11 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $2,818 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 07:51 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,610 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:51 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.769 | $1,993 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 03:19 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $19.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 02:32 PM | Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.240 | $8,618 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 18, 03:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $11.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 05:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.371 | $2,699 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 05:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.439 | $2,975 | —— |
| Apr 17, 02:41 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,333 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 17, 01:23 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $2,219 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 01:19 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $1,251 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 01:08 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $6,285 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 17, 01:08 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $3,634 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 17, 01:00 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $3,230 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 17, 12:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,332 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $9,087 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:19 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,345 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |