| Jun 12, 05:16 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:16 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.828 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:56 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.344 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 01:39 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.338 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 10:49 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:59 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.352 | $1,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:54 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:54 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:53 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:53 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.661 | $2,645 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:08 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $7,369 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:08 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $11.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:07 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $26.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 01:37 AM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.523 | $1,398 | —— |
| Jun 6, 01:34 AM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.516 | $1,795 | —— |
| Jun 5, 09:28 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $2,500 | —— |
| May 29, 02:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.602 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:16 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 28, 02:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.747 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:15 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.232 | $2,114 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:07 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:43 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.315 | $1,120 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:04 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,400 | —— |
| May 23, 06:20 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.723 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:26 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.417 | $2,122 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:25 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.429 | $2,692 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $1,949 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 05:02 PM | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.841 | $1,013 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:16 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY YES | 0.641 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:28 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $3,000 | —— |
| May 20, 02:22 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | BUY YES | 0.305 | $1,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 01:21 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,600 | —— |
| May 18, 03:15 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 03:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $2,280 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 08:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,735 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 02:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 03:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.823 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 03:17 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.822 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:49 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,400 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 02:29 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,092 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 02:22 PM | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $2,300 | —— |
| May 5, 10:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 07:04 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | SELL NO | 0.121 | $1,370 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 04:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.351 | $5,052 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 01:10 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | BUY YES | 0.526 | $6,791 | —— |
| May 1, 12:52 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $6,000 | —— |
| Apr 30, 06:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $9,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 06:16 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.195 | $5,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 29, 04:00 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 02:26 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $4,000 | —— |
| Apr 25, 12:50 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.720 | $1,453 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 25, 12:49 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.730 | $1,610 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:43 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.723 | $3,388 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:43 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.736 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:42 PM | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $27.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:42 PM | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $27.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:40 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.678 | $1,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:36 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.536 | $2,775 | —— |
| Apr 19, 08:36 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.250 | $1,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 19, 07:46 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.349 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 12:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.496 | $1,810 | —— |
| Apr 18, 11:48 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,155 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 11:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,443 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 11:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,181 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 11:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,559 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 10:40 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $10.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $5,000 | —— |
| Apr 17, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.473 | $6,000 | —— |
| Apr 17, 04:23 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL NO | 0.355 | $3,829 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 04:23 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL NO | 0.569 | $2,048 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 04:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.764 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 04:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.681 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 04:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.538 | $6,458 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 12:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.709 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 12:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 12:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.689 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 06:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.417 | $3,000 | —— |
| Apr 15, 03:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.353 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 14, 11:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.483 | $3,000 | —— |
| Apr 13, 04:45 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | BUY YES | 0.211 | $1,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 13, 04:39 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | BUY YES | 0.723 | $4,340 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 04:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $5,000 | —— |
| Apr 12, 01:34 AM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 05:39 PM | US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.796 | $4,965 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 05:39 PM | US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.771 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 01:33 AM | 0x68beecc8 | SELL NO | 0.794 | $2,482 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 01:23 AM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.995 | $15.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 09:56 PM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.540 | $3,684 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 09:42 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $6,000 | —— |
| Apr 7, 08:00 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.108 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 07:48 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.639 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 02:56 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $3,000 | —— |
| Apr 6, 09:24 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,794 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 6, 02:41 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.538 | $5,007 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 02:39 PM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,655 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 02:23 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.549 | $5,000 | —— |
| Apr 6, 02:22 AM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.185 | $5,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 5, 03:12 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 01:47 AM | Iran leadership change by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $4,978 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 01:47 AM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 12:47 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 12:30 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.764 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 04:53 PM | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 04:53 PM | Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.923 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 10:15 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $3,026 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 01:33 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL YES | 0.459 | $7,580 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 09:56 PM | 0x93ab6cbb | BUY NO | 0.879 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 08:20 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.855 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 08:19 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.856 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 10:24 AM | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 02:41 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $3,112 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 06:08 PM | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $2,316 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 05:48 PM | 0xaaacff0f | BUY YES | 0.899 | $2,436 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 05:43 PM | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 01:55 AM | 0x2cbfefb1 | BUY NO | 0.821 | $2,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 08:40 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY YES | 0.213 | $4,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 24, 08:30 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY YES | 0.255 | $10.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 23, 01:05 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.624 | $1,281 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:51 AM | 0x73e113c0 | BUY | 0.880 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |