Back to whale feed
hollyber
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x1604…ff0e with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
24
lifetime
PnL per $
-43%
historical realized
Win rate
50.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$189.4K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 24 resolved trades · -43% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
117
Distinct markets
42
Volume (90d)
$862.4K
avg $7,371 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$348.1K / $514.3K
net direction
Recent trades
last 117 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 11:17 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.988 | $1,976 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 24, 11:17 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $2,286 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:02 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.793 | $26.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:00 AM | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.925 | $6,548 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.335 | $20.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:00 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.917 | $56.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 01:58 AM | 0x13f7be3d | BUY | 0.790 | $9,117 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 01:57 AM | 0x13f7be3d | BUY | 0.774 | $1,218 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 12:22 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,079 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 18, 10:40 PM | 0xcce77771 | BUY | 0.820 | $1,198 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 10:17 PM | 0xe46b6dda | BUY | 0.960 | $2,913 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 10:16 PM | 0xe46b6dda | BUY | 0.940 | $4,176 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 01:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,600 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 09:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $5,900 | — |
| Apr 17, 09:27 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,820 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 09:26 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,520 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 02:46 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $59.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 06:59 AM | 0x46f15cb0 | SELL NO | 0.991 | $4,945 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 03:44 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.734 | $1,022 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 04:05 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.988 | $12.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 03:21 AM | 0x4b003509 | BUY | 0.670 | $1,327 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 03:16 AM | 0x4b003509 | BUY | 0.597 | $1,768 | — |
| Apr 12, 03:07 AM | 0x1c58e09f | SELL | 0.999 | $9,129 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 03:05 AM | 0xf8734a88 | SELL | 0.999 | $44.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 02:50 AM | 0x1c58e09f | SELL | 0.999 | $9,129 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 02:49 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.930 | $18.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:48 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.938 | $2,404 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:48 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.920 | $2,862 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:47 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.890 | $1,379 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:46 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.809 | $1,364 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:45 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.720 | $2,542 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:39 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.670 | $3,055 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:34 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.797 | $3,460 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:31 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.690 | $1,010 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 12:31 AM | 0x1c58e09f | BUY | 0.990 | $5,669 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 12:28 AM | 0x1c58e09f | BUY | 0.930 | $4,012 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 12:24 AM | 0x1c58e09f | BUY | 0.920 | $1,293 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 11:50 PM | 0x4214defe | SELL | 0.999 | $5,759 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 02:18 PM | 0x639dc788 | BUY YES | 0.979 | $1,125 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 01:19 PM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,400 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 01:04 PM | 0x639dc788 | BUY YES | 0.965 | $1,521 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 01:02 PM | 0x639dc788 | BUY YES | 0.953 | $1,598 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 05:33 PM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $4,441 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 05:12 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $1,297 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 05:10 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $3,753 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 05:07 PM | 0x68beecc8 | SELL NO | 0.810 | $2,430 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:35 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $14.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:34 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.700 | $3,850 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:33 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.820 | $4,510 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 10:23 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $13.1K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:21 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.830 | $3,320 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 10:18 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $5,548 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 11:34 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,720 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 11:29 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,580 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 02:45 AM | 0xe8dfe4aa | BUY | 0.918 | $1,812 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 02:27 AM | 0x78d55081 | SELL | 0.999 | $25.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 02:11 AM | 0x78d55081 | BUY | 0.900 | $1,105 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 02:07 AM | 0x78d55081 | BUY | 0.711 | $13.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 01:33 AM | 0x16d384d0 | SELL | 0.999 | $22.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 01:28 AM | 0x16d384d0 | BUY | 0.970 | $7,268 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 01:22 AM | 0x16d384d0 | BUY | 0.840 | $1,471 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 12:39 AM | 0x1f7804e0 | SELL | 0.999 | $27.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 12:38 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 12:37 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $9,236 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 12:31 AM | 0x1f7804e0 | BUY | 0.940 | $2,815 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 12:29 AM | 0x1f7804e0 | BUY | 0.950 | $5,411 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 12:26 AM | 0x1f7804e0 | BUY | 0.740 | $7,345 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 12:00 AM | 0xceb8e9b8 | BUY | 0.823 | $4,092 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 11:58 PM | 0xceb8e9b8 | BUY | 0.798 | $1,160 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 11:58 PM | 0xceb8e9b8 | BUY | 0.823 | $1,989 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 11:53 PM | 0xceb8e9b8 | BUY | 0.749 | $1,313 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 11:40 PM | 0xcd6d9b62 | SELL | 0.999 | $8,168 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 11:28 PM | 0xcd6d9b62 | BUY | 0.916 | $2,506 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:53 PM | 0xd9cbf690 | SELL | 0.990 | $15.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:50 PM | 0xd9cbf690 | BUY | 0.547 | $2,213 | — |
| Apr 4, 10:48 PM | 0xd9cbf690 | BUY | 0.680 | $1,047 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:46 PM | 0xd9cbf690 | BUY | 0.850 | $2,149 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.958 | $5,269 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:30 PM | 0x86c37c11 | SELL | 0.990 | $3,481 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:10 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $1,436 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:10 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $5,743 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:08 PM | 0x69b2ff2c | SELL | 0.990 | $9,909 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:05 PM | 0x69b2ff2c | BUY | 0.800 | $2,385 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:05 PM | 0x69b2ff2c | BUY | 0.800 | $2,201 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 05:59 AM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,700 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 05:54 AM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.989 | $21.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 06:26 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,600 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 06:22 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.967 | $4,835 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 01:04 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,600 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 01:03 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $3,850 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 01:01 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,310 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 04:24 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,020 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 04:23 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $21.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:04 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:02 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.920 | $6,440 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 09:24 PM | 0xecf63047 | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,225 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:52 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $4,500 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 08:19 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,730 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 08:03 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,890 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:54 AM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.978 | $3,912 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 11:26 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.991 | $5,487 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 11:12 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.991 | $1,804 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 11:11 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $9,960 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 11:09 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,420 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 11:08 PM | 0x4befb52f | SELL NO | 0.997 | $5,484 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 07:07 PM | 0x705479cc | BUY NO | 0.990 | $10.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 06:50 PM | 0x705479cc | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,900 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 06:12 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $15.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 05:58 PM | 0xf82ce6cd | BUY NO | 0.997 | $3,058 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 02:35 PM | 0xcc079207 | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,577 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 02:33 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.985 | $2,481 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 01:23 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.981 | $11.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 01:12 PM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.997 | $2,856 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 07:00 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,460 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 06:59 AM | 0xcc079207 | BUY NO | 0.981 | $3,920 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 12:26 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,580 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 12:54 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.993 | $32.8K | — (SELL) |
Markets active in
42 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Other | 6 | $82.4K | $-31,307 |
| 0xf8734a88 | — | 10 | $81.5K | $-7,536 |
| 0x306d10d4 | — | 7 | $66.7K | $-15,663 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Finance | 1 | $59.9K | +$59.9K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Other | 8 | $52.2K | $-39,061 |
| 0x1f7804e0 | — | 4 | $43.0K | $-11,902 |
| 0x78d55081 | — | 3 | $39.7K | $-10,950 |
| 0x61ce3773 | — | 1 | $32.8K | $-32,769 |
| 0x16d384d0 | — | 3 | $31.4K | $-13,940 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Other | 3 | $31.4K | $-21,718 |
| 0x1c58e09f | — | 5 | $29.2K | $-7,285 |
| 0x4c5701bc | — | 2 | $28.2K | $-15,318 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Other | 3 | $27.8K | $-13,807 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Other | 3 | $26.3K | +$3,575 |
| 0xd9cbf690 | — | 4 | $20.6K | $-9,761 |
| 0x705479cc | — | 2 | $20.2K | +$20.2K |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Tech | 4 | $20.2K | $-11,577 |
| 0x773abaa5 | — | 4 | $17.0K | +$1,370 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Other | 4 | $15.1K | $-3,658 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Other | 2 | $14.8K | $-14,820 |
| 0x69b2ff2c | — | 3 | $14.5K | $-5,322 |
| 0xcd6d9b62 | — | 2 | $10.7K | $-5,662 |
| 0x13f7be3d | — | 2 | $10.3K | +$10.3K |
| 0x68beecc8 | — | 3 | $9,530 | +$4,670 |
| 0xceb8e9b8 | — | 4 | $8,555 | +$8,555 |
| 0x4befb52f | — | 2 | $8,340 | $-2,627 |
| 0xe46b6dda | — | 2 | $7,089 | +$7,089 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Other | 1 | $6,548 | $-6,548 |
| 0x4214defe | — | 1 | $5,759 | $-5,759 |
| 0xcc079207 | — | 2 | $5,496 | +$5,496 |
Showing top 30 by volume.