| Jun 13, 03:00 PM | Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.969 | $2,525 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:59 PM | Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $40.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $30.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $60.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $2,076 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:57 PM | Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.948 | $8,831 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:55 PM | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $25.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 03:03 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,149 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 03:03 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,149 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 03:02 PM | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.020 | $5,151 | —— |
| Jun 5, 02:49 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,149 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:46 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,357 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:45 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.096 | $1,948 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:16 PM | Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.948 | $15.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:10 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,641 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:08 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.096 | $1,152 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:07 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,405 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:06 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,313 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:06 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,641 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:06 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.084 | $1,296 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:05 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,810 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:05 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.095 | $1,905 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:02 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.084 | $1,209 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:02 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,641 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:01 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,641 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:01 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,171 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:01 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,810 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 02:00 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.094 | $1,732 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 01:59 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.054 | $5,558 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 08:19 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $82.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 08:18 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $11.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:17 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,395 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:16 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.112 | $1,151 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:15 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.167 | $3,426 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:14 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.104 | $4,275 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:11 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.103 | $1,557 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:10 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.901 | $2,797 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 11:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $9,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:22 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.106 | $9,221 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 10:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $65.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:24 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $60.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:51 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.097 | $2,317 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:49 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.097 | $1,994 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:49 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.083 | $1,707 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:48 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.083 | $1,707 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:48 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.096 | $1,813 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:47 AM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:46 AM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $1,070 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:46 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $2,221 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:41 AM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.091 | $1,871 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:41 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.096 | $3,947 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:40 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $2,676 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:40 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.176 | $3,609 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:36 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.928 | $4,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:19 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.467 | $2,273 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:17 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.533 | $2,807 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $8,284 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:10 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.605 | $1,642 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:08 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.684 | $1,753 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:20 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $2,262 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:19 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.173 | $3,548 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:17 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $2,006 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:16 AM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,291 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 04:02 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,357 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 04:02 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.051 | $1,326 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 04:00 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,357 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 03:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $25.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $34.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:36 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $4,077 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:50 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.929 | $65.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:47 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.169 | $9,119 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 04:45 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $26.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:42 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.181 | $14.3K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 04:41 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.928 | $19.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $9,657 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:38 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $7,124 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 12:05 PM | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $14.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 08:19 AM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $5,352 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 08:09 AM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $6,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 08:05 AM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.092 | $9,458 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 11:07 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $37.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:39 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.914 | $37.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:38 PM | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $33.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:37 PM | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $14.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:37 PM | Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $28.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:35 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $65.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:34 PM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.783 | $1,874 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:30 AM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,660 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:26 AM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.911 | $20.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:26 AM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL NO | 0.570 | $22.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 08:26 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | SELL NO | 0.440 | $2,658 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 01:51 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $144.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:45 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $4,711 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:43 PM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,579 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:43 PM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.907 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:41 PM | Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $9,219 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:41 PM | Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $5,247 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 06:39 AM | Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $23.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:18 PM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $6,182 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:16 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $15.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 01:58 PM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $21.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 10:44 AM | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 10:42 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 10:31 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $22.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 10:16 AM | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,799 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $89.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 01:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $30.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 05:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.971 | $114.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 08:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $47.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 02:39 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $44.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:57 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $7,812 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:51 PM | 0xd81f6116 | BUY NO | 0.798 | $1,871 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:49 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.879 | $3,947 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:40 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $6,115 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:40 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.909 | $81.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:39 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $34.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:39 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $59.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:37 PM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.856 | $6,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:36 PM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.921 | $5,935 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:35 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.949 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:34 PM | 0x49131d36 | BUY NO | 0.857 | $6,202 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:34 PM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL YES | 0.850 | $55.4K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 04:03 PM | 0x49131d36 | BUY NO | 0.730 | $3,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 03:52 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $3,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 12:01 PM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.995 | $125.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 09:10 PM | 0xe5dfdee5 | BUY NO | 0.960 | $5,785 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 09:08 PM | 0xe5dfdee5 | BUY NO | 0.957 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 11:55 AM | 0x49131d36 | BUY NO | 0.756 | $6,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 11:53 AM | 0x85e99fb9 | BUY YES | 0.942 | $3,919 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 10:18 AM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $8,683 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:02 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $20.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:47 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $7,530 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:38 PM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $21.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $54.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |