stupid22

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8afa…adb6 with our methodology badges per row.

0x8afa03dd6974e44d00c4d14dcccb00c0ddf6adb6·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+23%

historical realized

Win rate

73.1%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$860.1K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.61M

avg $8,028 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.29M / $311.2K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 03:32 PM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.993	$15.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:27 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.934	$1,621	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:26 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.933	$2,302	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 08:06 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$6,022	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:34 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.992	$9,920	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 03:33 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.992	$3,408	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 03:32 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$3,616	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:10 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.980	$34.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:10 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.991	$32.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 01:53 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.980	$9,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:03 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.979	$5,972	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:14 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.910	$5,953	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:10 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.979	$13.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:47 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,668	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:13 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 03:35 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.986	$2,328	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 03:31 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$9,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:03 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$2,922	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 12:01 PM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.972	$1,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:59 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$2,922	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:11 AM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.973	$2,675	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 10:09 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$6,702	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:05 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.972	$8,505	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:03 AM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.970	$3,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 10:02 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.973	$4,597	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:01 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$4,550	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:59 AM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.961	$4,165	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:25 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.984	$1,107	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 12:17 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$5,922	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:17 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$3,324	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:11 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.983	$8,957	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 12:09 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.973	$2,642	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:08 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.985	$1,031	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 08:32 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$2,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:59 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:44 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,819	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:11 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 08:21 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,691	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:52 PM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.830	$2,490	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:16 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$4,867	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:13 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,721	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:45 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,123	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:44 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:53 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.850	$6,328	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:36 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:16 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:14 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:39 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.973	$1,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:22 AM	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	BUY YES	0.450	$2,030	—
May 29, 05:59 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,063	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:39 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,973	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:06 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:54 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.985	$5,641	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:49 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,588	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 01:34 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,583	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:49 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$5,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:41 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.850	$5,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:45 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$5,891	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:37 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,409	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 07:52 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.981	$6,272	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:27 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$1,823	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:20 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,529	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:19 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,927	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:16 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$5,508	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:58 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.984	$2,411	— (SELL)
May 24, 07:00 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:59 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$5,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:31 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,072	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:28 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.981	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:45 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.984	$5,990	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:35 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,843	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:29 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,142	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:28 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$63.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:55 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$7,699	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:57 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,462	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:30 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$5,589	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:12 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:05 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$7,370	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:57 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,915	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:46 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.971	$22.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:22 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,377	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 02:22 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.810	$1,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:40 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,298	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:36 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,114	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 06:30 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.954	$3,816	— (SELL)
May 20, 04:57 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.820	$3,964	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 04:57 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.954	$4,770	— (SELL)
May 19, 12:45 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.961	$2,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:47 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.953	$2,217	— (SELL)
May 19, 03:46 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$3,405	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:45 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.972	$2,486	— (SELL)
May 19, 03:45 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.973	$1,499	— (SELL)
May 19, 03:43 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:45 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$3,515	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:24 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:23 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.950	$9,677	— (SELL)
May 19, 01:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$4,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:04 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,419	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:20 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,972	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:19 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.940	$3,894	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:12 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.973	$2,277	— (SELL)
May 18, 02:59 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.945	$1,888	— (SELL)
May 18, 12:53 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.950	$4,432	— (SELL)
May 17, 12:44 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$15.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:16 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,032	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:12 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,057	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:10 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.958	$4,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 02:56 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,423	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:15 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,984	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 03:37 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.967	$2,874	— (SELL)
May 12, 08:55 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,231	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 06:21 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,231	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 02:22 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	SELL NO	0.990	$1,727	— (SELL)
May 7, 07:12 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.971	$6,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 01:48 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.969	$5,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 03:42 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.973	$1,153	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 03:36 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$29.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 02:09 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,667	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:49 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$76.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:47 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$20.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:29 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,606	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 08:23 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$11.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 06:08 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$7,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 05:39 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$6,666	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 02:28 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 01:39 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,632	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 01:33 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.700	$12.5K	— (SELL)
May 5, 01:32 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.890	$8,900	— (SELL)
May 5, 01:32 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.934	$20.7K	— (SELL)
May 4, 02:52 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	SELL NO	0.984	$1,476	— (SELL)
May 4, 02:12 PM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.949	$5,351	— (SELL)
May 4, 01:23 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.820	$4,217	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 01:21 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	SELL NO	0.984	$5,904	— (SELL)
May 4, 04:12 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.930	$33.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:54 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,463	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:52 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.969	$7,524	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 03:06 PM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.941	$25.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 01:15 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,901	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 09:46 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,064	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 09:14 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,147	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 07:10 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:03 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$7,361	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:02 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:01 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,859	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:00 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$3,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:00 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$5,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 03:56 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.986	$5,295	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 09:30 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 09:29 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:30 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.810	$29.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:29 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.800	$57.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 01:46 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.870	$8,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 02:19 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.860	$5,917	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 01:54 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 04:16 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 04:15 AM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.880	$22.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 03:08 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.860	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 12:44 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.934	$1,868	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 12:24 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.963	$40.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 04:18 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.974	$5,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:05 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$32.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:03 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.850	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 01:57 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.800	$8,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 03:38 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,084	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 06:59 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 12:05 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$18.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 11:52 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$46.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 11:18 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,819	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:31 PM	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,339	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:24 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.925	$1,952	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:50 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.967	$13.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 02:40 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.967	$9,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 03:45 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,591	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:44 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.676	$2,137	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:44 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.700	$2,128	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 02:02 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,439	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:41 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$19.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:25 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	SELL NO	0.988	$1,319	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 07:59 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:59 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$76.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:52 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.984	$4,817	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 07:52 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.984	$30.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 15, 04:18 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$5,859	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:15 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,571	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 11:07 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.984	$5,060	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 07:35 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,889	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:09 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:03 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$26.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 01:40 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$9,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 01:39 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$27.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 11:18 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.790	$7,971	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 04:08 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.969	$4,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 04:06 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,522	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 04:01 AM	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$2,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:18 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.930	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 02:39 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$9,179	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 01:31 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$6,825	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 01:28 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$4,875	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 04:34 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:21 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.940	$9,400	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

26 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	32	$287.8K	+$253.6K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Other	23	$217.3K	+$153.0K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Other	45	$201.6K	+$52.5K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Other	18	$157.1K	+$157.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	5	$155.8K	+$74.3K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	13	$93.1K	+$66.9K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Other	15	$83.8K	+$83.8K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Other	5	$78.5K	+$78.5K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	4	$64.1K	+$64.1K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Tech	3	$51.1K	$-959
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	4	$47.4K	$-47,422
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Tech	2	$31.0K	$-31,003
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	Other	7	$26.7K	+$8,533
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Other	3	$20.8K	+$20.8K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Other	3	$16.6K	+$8,034
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Other	1	$15.7K	+$15.7K
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Politics	5	$14.4K	+$14.4K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Tech	1	$12.5K	$-12,514
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Tech	4	$7,743	+$4,007
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Other	1	$6,022	+$6,022
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Other	1	$5,953	+$5,953
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	Other	1	$2,668	+$2,668
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Other	1	$2,339	+$2,339
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Politics	1	$2,198	+$2,198
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	1	$2,030	+$2,030
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Other	1	$1,319	$-1,319