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Maratk87
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa3d4…9969 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
8
lifetime
PnL per $
-71%
historical realized
Win rate
16.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$44.6K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 8 resolved trades · -71% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
53
Distinct markets
19
Volume (90d)
$327.7K
avg $6,183 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$94.5K / $233.2K
net direction
Recent trades
last 53 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 09:11 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL NO | 0.885 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 05:27 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL NO | 0.881 | $5,568 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 11:17 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL NO | 0.831 | $1,824 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 05:15 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL NO | 0.705 | $1,578 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 11:44 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.263 | $4,209 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 03:02 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $16.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 08:45 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $2,356 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 08:20 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.253 | $12.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 08:20 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $17.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 06:43 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $10.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 07:31 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.289 | $4,000 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 6, 07:30 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $13.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 01:54 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $5,900 | — |
| Apr 3, 10:35 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.527 | $1,516 | — |
| Apr 3, 10:33 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,304 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 3, 10:32 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $7,500 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 05:49 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $5,500 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 30, 09:41 AM | 0xf6890c70 | SELL NO | 0.631 | $1,411 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 09:41 AM | 0xc5300759 | BUY NO | 0.190 | $1,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 30, 07:09 AM | 0xf6890c70 | SELL NO | 0.642 | $1,450 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 05:10 AM | 0x7da70ee7 | BUY NO | 0.580 | $2,000 | — |
| Mar 30, 02:56 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL YES | 0.075 | $2,495 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 05:50 PM | 0xeb5e4df3 | SELL | 0.990 | $1,213 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 04:25 PM | 0xd5669594 | SELL | 0.990 | $3,184 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 04:05 PM | 0xcf9e299a | SELL | 0.990 | $2,525 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 04:00 PM | 0x66ac7a00 | SELL | 0.990 | $1,934 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 03:56 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $7,200 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 03:47 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY YES | 0.105 | $1,704 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 10:00 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,928 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 09:35 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,750 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 09:27 AM | 0xf6890c70 | SELL NO | 0.484 | $1,204 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 09:27 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $8,748 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 09:26 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $10.9K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 09:24 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $26.6K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 06:56 AM | 0xf6890c70 | SELL NO | 0.492 | $1,181 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 12:05 PM | 0x6a5e8e50 | SELL | 0.990 | $1,072 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 08:45 AM | 0x6f790c42 | SELL | 0.999 | $1,929 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 05:59 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL YES | 0.226 | $3,992 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 05:59 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.028 | $2,018 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 04:21 PM | 0xc5300759 | SELL NO | 0.410 | $7,117 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 11:38 AM | 0xf6890c70 | SELL NO | 0.728 | $8,138 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 11:37 AM | 0xc5300759 | SELL NO | 0.599 | $9,745 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 11:37 AM | 0x814657a1 | SELL NO | 0.877 | $25.6K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 03:51 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.115 | $14.3K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 03:48 AM | 0xc5300759 | SELL NO | 0.706 | $13.0K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 03:12 AM | 0xf6890c70 | SELL NO | 0.833 | $2,882 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 03:11 AM | 0xc5300759 | SELL NO | 0.738 | $7,239 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 01:01 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.625 | $1,624 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 05:15 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $4,151 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 02:43 PM | 0xc5300759 | SELL NO | 0.600 | $9,699 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 02:17 PM | 0xc5300759 | SELL NO | 0.609 | $4,562 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:44 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.202 | $4,923 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 09:31 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.531 | $3,000 | — |
Markets active in
19 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Other | 9 | $67.5K | +$7,118 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Other | 4 | $58.3K | +$9,895 |
| 0xc5300759 | — | 7 | $52.4K | $-50,386 |
| 0x814657a1 | — | 1 | $25.6K | $-25,625 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Other | 4 | $25.4K | $-25,427 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Other | 3 | $21.3K | $-12,042 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | Other | 4 | $20.9K | $-20,855 |
| 0xf6890c70 | — | 6 | $16.3K | $-16,265 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Other | 3 | $11.6K | +$3,207 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Other | 2 | $6,356 | +$6,356 |
| 0x306d10d4 | — | 2 | $4,198 | $-791 |
| 0x773abaa5 | — | 1 | $3,992 | $-3,992 |
| 0xd5669594 | — | 1 | $3,184 | $-3,184 |
| 0xcf9e299a | — | 1 | $2,525 | $-2,525 |
| 0x7da70ee7 | — | 1 | $2,000 | +$2,000 |
| 0x66ac7a00 | — | 1 | $1,934 | $-1,934 |
| 0x6f790c42 | — | 1 | $1,929 | $-1,929 |
| 0xeb5e4df3 | — | 1 | $1,213 | $-1,213 |
| 0x6a5e8e50 | — | 1 | $1,072 | $-1,072 |