TeemuPukki

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc254…3f73 with our methodology badges per row.

0xc25427ea224b8f9fa2df801233f944006ed33f73·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-42%

historical realized

Win rate

54.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$137.2K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 27 resolved trades · -42% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$348.4K

avg $5,531 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$250.9K / $97.6K

net direction

Recent trades

last 63 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 10, 08:07 PM	Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.913	$2,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:39 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$9,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:31 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:32 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:35 AM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:32 AM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:31 AM	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:31 AM	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,179	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:28 AM	Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,605	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:02 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.860	$11.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 02:43 PM	Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:42 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,938	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 04:21 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	BUY YES	0.985	$2,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	BUY YES	0.960	$2,281	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 04:52 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.996	$1,884	— (SELL)
May 24, 04:52 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.996	$8,076	— (SELL)
May 24, 04:51 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.982	$1,963	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 04:03 AM	Iran leadership change by May 31?	BUY NO	0.983	$3,244	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 04:03 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.996	$3,499	— (SELL)
May 24, 04:03 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.996	$1,162	— (SELL)
May 24, 04:03 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.996	$2,453	— (SELL)
May 22, 02:30 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$2,583	— (SELL)
May 8, 11:46 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$7,361	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:51 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.965	$1,566	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:01 AM	0xd81f6116	BUY NO	0.989	$1,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:29 AM	0xd81f6116	BUY NO	0.960	$5,046	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 12:18 AM	0x46f15cb0	BUY NO	0.920	$2,544	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:03 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,163	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 09:57 AM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:50 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.992	$5,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 10:45 PM	0x773abaa5	BUY NO	0.298	$3,243	Cheap band — no rep
Apr 7, 10:37 PM	0x773abaa5	SELL NO	0.160	$2,030	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 10:37 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL NO	0.161	$1,436	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 05:07 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.427	$4,273	—
Apr 5, 05:05 AM	0x773abaa5	SELL NO	0.950	$4,750	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 01:17 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY NO	0.620	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 01:17 AM	0x773abaa5	BUY NO	0.820	$8,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:53 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY NO	0.640	$3,411	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:56 AM	0x00bd764e	BUY NO	0.999	$8,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:37 AM	0xcc079207	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:27 AM	0xcc079207	BUY NO	0.998	$1,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:26 AM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.950	$9,500	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 01:11 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.989	$9,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:11 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.950	$9,500	— (SELL)
Mar 31, 11:41 PM	0xcc079207	BUY NO	0.997	$20.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 01:27 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.966	$2,433	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 11:11 PM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.953	$5,783	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 11:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.930	$18.6K	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 05:07 PM	0x6aa39e48	BUY YES	0.779	$2,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 01:30 PM	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?	BUY NO	0.927	$1,652	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 10:17 AM	0x77508b9c	BUY YES	0.998	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 08:00 AM	0x77508b9c	BUY YES	0.998	$9,067	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 03:22 PM	0x773abaa5	BUY NO	0.700	$1,710	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 02:12 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$4,542	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 11:41 AM	0xcab77c44	SELL NO	0.910	$2,795	— (SELL)
Mar 25, 11:27 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.790	$7,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 10:16 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.690	$6,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 10:11 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL NO	0.800	$2,080	— (SELL)
Mar 25, 10:03 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	SELL NO	0.380	$4,387	— (SELL)
Mar 25, 10:03 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL NO	0.490	$1,076	— (SELL)
Mar 25, 10:02 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL NO	0.800	$10.2K	— (SELL)
Mar 23, 11:29 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$9,100	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

29 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	4	$46.7K	$-28,500
0xcc079207	—	3	$41.3K	+$41.3K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	3	$29.0K	+$29.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Other	4	$27.6K	+$4,503
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	7	$27.0K	$-12,296
0x773abaa5	—	5	$19.9K	+$6,373
0x77508b9c	—	2	$19.3K	+$19.3K
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?	Politics	3	$19.1K	+$19.1K
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Other	3	$18.1K	+$18.1K
0x306d10d4	—	3	$17.8K	+$17.8K
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Other	3	$16.8K	$-7,747
0x00bd764e	—	1	$8,661	+$8,661
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Other	4	$7,783	+$2,759
0xd81f6116	—	2	$6,978	+$6,978
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Other	2	$5,231	+$5,231
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Other	1	$4,387	$-4,387
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	1	$4,273	+$4,273
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Other	1	$3,244	+$3,244
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?	Politics	1	$3,179	+$3,179
0xcab77c44	—	1	$2,795	$-2,795
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Other	1	$2,640	+$2,640
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?	Politics	1	$2,605	+$2,605
0x46f15cb0	—	1	$2,544	+$2,544
0x6aa39e48	—	1	$2,337	+$2,337
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?	Other	1	$2,228	+$2,228
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	1	$1,963	+$1,963
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Politics	1	$1,730	+$1,730
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?	Other	1	$1,652	+$1,652
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Other	1	$1,566	+$1,566