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chungguskhan
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x7744…999e with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
4
lifetime
PnL per $
-75%
historical realized
Win rate
19.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$136.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 4 resolved trades · -75% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
15
Distinct markets
8
Volume (90d)
$364.5K
avg $24.3K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$160.8K / $203.7K
net direction
Recent trades
last 15 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 10:24 AM | 0xba175e58 | BUY | 0.460 | $20.6K | — |
| Apr 7, 10:13 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.700 | $1,934 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 08:45 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $20.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 09:34 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $2,583 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 09:34 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $24.5K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 06:38 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $9,512 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 30, 08:50 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.940 | $4,374 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 04:57 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.931 | $2,223 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 04:50 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.935 | $2,323 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 08:16 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.850 | $9,950 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 08:10 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.850 | $6,894 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 07:51 PM | 0x7cb525e8 | SELL NO | 0.995 | $143.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 06:41 PM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.300 | $1,524 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 23, 08:52 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.550 | $5,787 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 08:47 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $108.5K | — |
Markets active in
8 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7cb525e8 | — | 1 | $143.1K | $-143,063 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Other | 3 | $135.0K | +$123.4K |
| 0x306d10d4 | — | 5 | $25.8K | $-25,764 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Other | 1 | $24.5K | $-24,537 |
| 0xba175e58 | — | 1 | $20.6K | +$20.6K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Other | 2 | $11.4K | +$7,578 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Other | 1 | $2,583 | $-2,583 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Politics | 1 | $1,524 | +$1,524 |