| Jun 20, 08:42 PM | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $12.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:40 PM | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.969 | $3,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:40 PM | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.967 | $1,718 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:25 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $85.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:24 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 06:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.882 | $5,642 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:54 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $8,519 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:43 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.599 | $5,119 | —— |
| Jun 13, 02:28 PM | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.421 | $1,290 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:34 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $1,735 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.282 | $1,064 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 11:52 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY YES | 0.199 | $1,003 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 01:05 AM | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.767 | $2,892 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 01:05 AM | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $1,923 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $1,161 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $2,614 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:01 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $3,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $1,542 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:23 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.906 | $2,733 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:17 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,573 | —— |
| Jun 12, 01:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.846 | $1,692 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:48 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $3,664 | —— |
| Jun 12, 01:57 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.809 | $1,728 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:16 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,899 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:16 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY YES | 0.151 | $3,201 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:16 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,606 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.093 | $9,221 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 09:26 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.962 | $1,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:58 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,948 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:13 PM | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,196 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:12 PM | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $3,841 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:12 PM | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $1,627 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:06 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.438 | $1,332 | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:00 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.317 | $2,100 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.419 | $1,095 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:24 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $1,082 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:57 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $26.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $1,837 | —— |
| Jun 11, 06:21 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $1,257 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.399 | $3,316 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.287 | $2,295 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 12:23 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $1,512 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 04:33 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $12.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:33 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.056 | $1,376 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 10:35 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,390 | —— |
| Jun 10, 06:46 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $17.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:21 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $2,197 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:21 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.847 | $5,881 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:57 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.779 | $1,705 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:53 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.769 | $5,980 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:10 AM | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $2,908 | —— |
| Jun 10, 01:34 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $18.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:00 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.987 | $3,339 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:00 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $7,287 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $2,048 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 12:18 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,453 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 03:07 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.891 | $1,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 03:07 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $57.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 03:06 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $3,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:17 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,006 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:08 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.527 | $1,475 | —— |
| Jun 8, 03:06 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.535 | $1,020 | —— |
| Jun 8, 01:07 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,565 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 12:51 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $5,856 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 12:50 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $5,999 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:24 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $64.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:19 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.964 | $2,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:09 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:08 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $3,757 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:07 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,124 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:52 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,296 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:51 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:51 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $2,462 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:35 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.955 | $1,644 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:35 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.955 | $2,002 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $1,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:45 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $6,717 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:44 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.739 | $2,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:44 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $1,320 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:44 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.874 | $1,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:44 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.736 | $1,023 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.669 | $1,976 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.646 | $3,752 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:21 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.573 | $1,352 | —— |
| Jun 7, 08:09 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,479 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:09 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,212 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 07:20 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.300 | $1,461 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 7, 05:33 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,624 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:10 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.933 | $3,838 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:10 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $3,437 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:08 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $7,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:08 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.898 | $1,143 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:07 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.893 | $2,672 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 12:47 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.843 | $4,245 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 11:07 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,336 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 11:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,705 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 11:01 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $3,857 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $1,423 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 06:42 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $5,846 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:00 PM | Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,062 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:59 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $3,243 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 12:43 AM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,879 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 09:03 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,925 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 08:58 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,194 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 08:16 PM | Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $66.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 05:00 PM | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $3,376 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:59 PM | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.861 | $1,305 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:59 PM | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.854 | $1,481 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:21 AM | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.951 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 07:27 AM | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $5,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 03:24 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $6,357 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 11:33 PM | Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY YES | 0.379 | $2,735 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 4, 04:14 PM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,358 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:20 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.644 | $5,411 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 11:55 PM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.535 | $2,134 | —— |
| Jun 3, 11:38 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,878 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 11:38 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,399 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 11:07 PM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.478 | $3,083 | —— |
| Jun 3, 10:36 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $45.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:17 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.064 | $1,407 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 10:00 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $1,412 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $14.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 06:55 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.073 | $1,520 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 04:15 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $1,378 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:54 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,171 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:45 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY YES | 0.067 | $1,620 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 01:26 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $4,043 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:42 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.230 | $1,339 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 04:56 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,195 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 10:27 PM | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $4,985 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 08:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $1,134 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,222 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:07 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $21.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $6,646 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,594 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:44 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.053 | $1,876 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:02 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $3,520 | —— |
| May 29, 04:55 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.812 | $1,059 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:53 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.153 | $4,109 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:53 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.146 | $4,369 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:53 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.043 | $1,540 | —— |
| May 29, 04:23 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $13.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:22 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $4,323 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:02 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.297 | $3,311 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 03:49 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.943 | $2,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:32 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.755 | $1,528 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:31 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.745 | $5,930 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,708 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,496 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,799 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:01 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.827 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:59 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,223 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:49 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:18 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $6,742 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:17 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $5,314 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:26 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,955 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,556 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 05:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $4,338 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 05:39 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,513 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:38 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,337 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.189 | $1,081 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 05:14 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $1,734 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $2,668 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 04:42 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $1,345 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:40 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $4,152 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:04 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $2,249 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 03:56 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.121 | $2,441 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 03:08 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $8,935 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $36.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:38 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.028 | $1,261 | —— |
| May 28, 02:37 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,006 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:36 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.843 | $1,104 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:21 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.459 | $1,204 | —— |
| May 28, 02:19 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $2,233 | —— |
| May 28, 02:19 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $2,237 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:15 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $4,030 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.248 | $2,942 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.245 | $2,851 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:31 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $15.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:06 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,256 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 12:10 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $1,618 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 02:27 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $3,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 02:09 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $24.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:09 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.973 | $8,168 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:08 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $22.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 01:57 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.627 | $1,093 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 01:00 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $6,667 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:59 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $5,538 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:56 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.915 | $4,283 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:20 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.543 | $6,740 | —— |
| May 27, 03:15 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $5,096 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 02:33 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.098 | $1,053 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 12:16 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 10:28 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $5,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 10:09 PM | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $1,695 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 09:52 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.178 | $10.6K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |