| Jun 20, 08:30 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.058 | $1,791 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 20, 08:29 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:29 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.063 | $6,291 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:49 PM | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.008 | $1,423 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:49 PM | Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.008 | $1,000 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:12 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $1,176 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.824 | $2,695 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 04:09 AM | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.016 | $2,835 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:37 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.916 | $32.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:33 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.102 | $2,157 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $2,079 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $2,062 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:17 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,044 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.584 | $1,636 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:10 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.085 | $3,121 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,737 | —— |
| Jun 12, 01:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $1,084 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 01:15 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $1,563 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $2,073 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:35 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $2,302 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.667 | $1,231 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:10 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $2,534 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:47 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.658 | $1,124 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $1,298 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:32 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $41.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:18 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $4,054 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,117 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:42 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $12.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $1,717 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 11:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.947 | $1,822 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:36 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $1,619 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,588 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:30 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $7,551 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:23 PM | Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $2,522 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:27 PM | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $2,139 | —— |
| Jun 10, 12:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.330 | $2,242 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:06 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $20.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $8,632 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 07:31 PM | Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:49 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.948 | $1,301 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.682 | $1,576 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:41 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.982 | $38.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 01:19 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $1,302 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 9, 12:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.680 | $8,477 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $7,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:16 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $1,278 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 12:47 AM | Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $1,392 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 7, 11:04 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $7,569 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $6,723 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:59 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.928 | $3,032 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:58 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.925 | $1,634 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:53 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $1,066 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.260 | $1,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 7, 07:57 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $1,242 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:52 PM | Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,759 | —— |
| Jun 7, 03:37 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.687 | $1,374 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:53 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.311 | $1,555 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 01:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.290 | $4,253 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 5, 11:52 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $2,011 | —— |
| Jun 5, 02:36 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $1,005 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:53 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 04:50 PM | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | SELL YES | 0.978 | $3,976 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 01:56 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:37 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $15.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:36 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $13.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $1,503 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 09:45 PM | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $2,661 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 08:25 PM | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $2,979 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 08:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $1,360 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:31 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.907 | $1,732 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 02:17 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $69.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:20 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $6,016 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,021 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:53 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $56.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.401 | $1,562 | —— |
| May 29, 07:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,128 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:52 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.882 | $1,266 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:52 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.863 | $6,453 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:39 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.769 | $2,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,096 | —— |
| May 29, 03:08 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $1,625 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:54 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.609 | $2,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 29, 02:52 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.149 | $8,388 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 01:32 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.135 | $1,422 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:35 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $5,538 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:48 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.532 | $1,803 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 06:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $1,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 06:27 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.357 | $2,573 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 06:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $9,018 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:51 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $1,087 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,582 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $3,456 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $1,194 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,312 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,079 | —— |
| May 27, 08:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,542 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:40 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.858 | $1,906 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:10 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.843 | $2,638 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,735 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.689 | $2,199 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,248 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,182 | —— |
| May 27, 03:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $2,277 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,475 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 03:39 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,359 | —— |
| May 27, 03:36 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,374 | —— |
| May 27, 12:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.668 | $1,852 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,014 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:01 AM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $3,693 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 11:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $2,160 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 11:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.640 | $2,528 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 05:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $2,238 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 03:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $1,097 | —— |
| May 26, 02:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $1,951 | —— |
| May 26, 02:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $2,676 | —— |
| May 26, 02:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.200 | $1,270 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 02:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $2,795 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:56 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.697 | $2,056 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 12:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,366 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.510 | $1,959 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:22 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $2,412 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $1,133 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,595 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,998 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:16 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | BUY YES | 0.845 | $1,094 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:15 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.863 | $1,159 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:57 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.600 | $1,553 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:50 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $9,742 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:50 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $8,593 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,402 | —— |
| May 25, 09:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,686 | —— |
| May 25, 09:45 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.241 | $1,797 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $18.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $1,213 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 07:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.608 | $1,373 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 07:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.599 | $2,635 | —— |
| May 25, 06:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,232 | —— |
| May 25, 06:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.489 | $1,233 | —— |
| May 25, 05:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,078 | —— |
| May 25, 04:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.439 | $1,572 | —— |
| May 25, 03:34 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.559 | $2,718 | —— |
| May 25, 03:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $1,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:05 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,767 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 02:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $4,595 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 01:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $1,047 | —— |
| May 25, 01:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:45 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,729 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,932 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:29 PM | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.188 | $1,122 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,732 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.400 | $1,048 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,850 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:05 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,834 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:45 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.605 | $1,210 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:17 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.882 | $5,518 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:57 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.692 | $1,547 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:12 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $1,755 | —— |
| May 24, 10:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.345 | $1,461 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 10:08 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.349 | $1,753 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 09:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,778 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:18 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.597 | $1,304 | —— |
| May 24, 07:18 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $8,454 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,180 | —— |
| May 24, 04:53 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $2,931 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.776 | $5,355 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,016 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:16 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.785 | $3,017 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:15 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.658 | $2,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.260 | $2,600 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 02:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.771 | $3,617 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:12 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.706 | $2,317 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:12 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,561 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.525 | $1,050 | —— |
| May 24, 11:19 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,140 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 10:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,311 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 04:01 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.248 | $1,238 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 03:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $1,225 | —— |
| May 24, 03:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.569 | $1,115 | —— |
| May 24, 03:31 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,997 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:29 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.688 | $3,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:57 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.323 | $1,856 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:47 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,866 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.280 | $2,582 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 01:55 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.282 | $1,271 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:49 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,056 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 01:35 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.379 | $1,043 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:09 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.663 | $1,477 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $1,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.689 | $2,669 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $1,103 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $1,332 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:24 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | SELL YES | 0.850 | $4,146 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:11 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.943 | $5,577 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.600 | $1,338 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:44 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.859 | $2,863 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $1,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,537 | —— |