| Jun 9, 04:39 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $5,419 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 12:24 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $1,992 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:21 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $6,735 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 12:48 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.954 | $1,921 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:37 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,913 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 09:31 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $28.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:26 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,559 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 06:48 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $18.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 10:03 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $4,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:15 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:16 AM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $4,655 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:51 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $190.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:49 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $190.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 12:31 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $6,323 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 09:55 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:55 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $2,812 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:16 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 06:58 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,160 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:51 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $1,101 | —— |
| May 8, 06:38 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,467 | —— |
| May 8, 06:37 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.450 | $9,038 | —— |
| May 8, 06:36 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,177 | —— |
| May 8, 06:35 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $17.0K | —— |
| May 8, 06:34 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $2,919 | —— |
| May 8, 06:33 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,266 | —— |
| May 8, 06:24 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $3,806 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:24 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,884 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 02:43 PM | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $2,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 8, 10:20 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,542 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 02:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $1,080 | —— |
| May 8, 02:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $4,433 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 12:30 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.788 | $3,556 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 12:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.805 | $1,621 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:54 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,711 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:39 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $1,394 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:06 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $13.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:06 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $1,895 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,159 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,805 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $3,342 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,356 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $3,622 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,125 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.817 | $2,578 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.818 | $2,064 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.460 | $2,620 | —— |
| May 7, 07:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,768 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 07:09 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $8,872 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 06:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $5,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 06:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $6,482 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 06:53 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 06:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,911 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 06:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.540 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $2,016 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:30 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.837 | $3,340 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:29 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 05:28 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.858 | $8,585 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.278 | $2,782 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 04:29 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $1,629 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:21 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.775 | $3,005 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.709 | $1,430 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.683 | $1,433 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.714 | $2,276 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 02:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $3,301 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 01:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,966 | —— |
| May 7, 01:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $5,700 | —— |
| May 7, 01:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $6,140 | —— |
| May 7, 01:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $5,700 | —— |
| May 7, 11:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.791 | $2,216 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 03:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 03:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $2,620 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 6, 02:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.831 | $1,701 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 12:19 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.817 | $1,545 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 11:57 AM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.785 | $1,351 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 11:07 AM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,153 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 10:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.748 | $1,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 10:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,013 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 6, 10:47 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $4,789 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:58 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,781 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 6, 09:52 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $1,486 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 09:38 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $49.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:18 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 11:32 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $9,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 10:56 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 10:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $3,133 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 10:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $4,199 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 10:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 10:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.039 | $1,163 | —— |
| May 4, 07:29 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,033 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 30, 10:58 PM | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $38.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 10:57 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $46.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 10:04 PM | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $99.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 10:03 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $6,394 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 10:00 PM | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $111.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 10:59 AM | 0x9823d715 | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,214 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 06:30 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $1,730 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 03:16 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,608 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 10:29 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.994 | $30.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 06:44 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $1,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 02:01 AM | 0x02f0c60b | BUY NO | 0.996 | $1,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |