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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the spec
YES price
1.0¢
settled
Total volume
+$539.0K
+$45.3K / 24h
Liquidity
+$49.5K
Whale trades (90d)
4
3 distinct wallets
Whale buy volume
+$89.6K
last 90d, $10K+ trades
Whale sell volume
$0
last 90d
Net flow
+$89.6K
buy-side dominant
Conviction fires
0
trades passing wave-34 gate
Top wallets on this market
3 wallets · sorted by net buy| Wallet | Trades | Buy | Sell | Net | PnL/$ | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HongKongMenace | 2 | +$38.9K | $0 | +$38.9K | -36% | — |
| Trustinghorse | 1 | +$37.5K | $0 | +$37.5K | -0% | — |
| MisTKy | 1 | +$13.2K | $0 | +$13.2K | -5% | — |
Recent whale trades
4 trades · ≥$10K · 90d window| When | Wallet | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 07:41 AM | Trustinghorse | BUY NO | 0.998 | +$37.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 04:22 PM | HongKongMenace | BUY NO | 0.970 | +$12.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 04:10 PM | MisTKy | BUY NO | 0.964 | +$13.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 02:19 AM | HongKongMenace | BUY NO | 0.960 | +$26.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
All trades pulled from on-chain Polymarket fills via the Polygon CTF Exchange. Methodology badges apply the same wave-34 classifier as /whales. Full per-wallet audit on /trader/[address].