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HongKongMenace

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x7919…72b2 with our methodology badges per row.

0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
26
lifetime
PnL per $
-36%
historical realized
Win rate
60.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$339.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 26 resolved trades · -36% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
32
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$380.7K
avg $11.9K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$237.2K / $143.4K
net direction

Recent trades

last 32 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 06:43 PMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?SELL NO0.869$8,429— (SELL)
Jul 20, 06:38 PMWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?SELL YES0.540$3,507— (SELL)
Jul 18, 03:23 PMWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?BUY YES0.960$1,928Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 03:22 PMWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?BUY NO0.961$11.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 03:12 PMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY NO0.874$14.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:26 PMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY NO0.860$5,848Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:22 PMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?BUY NO0.970$12.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:47 AMWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?BUY YES0.750$1,527Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:46 AMWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?BUY YES0.715$2,274Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:46 AMWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?BUY YES0.325$3,699Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 17, 06:40 AMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?SELL YES0.998$7,979— (SELL)
Jul 17, 02:19 AMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?BUY NO0.960$26.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:51 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.939$43.9K— (SELL)
Jun 27, 07:29 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.944$9,444Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:28 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.998$9,980— (SELL)
Jun 27, 07:27 AMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.975$29.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:26 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.998$29.9K— (SELL)
Jun 27, 07:25 AMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.975$15.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 07:47 AMStarmer out by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.969$6,453Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 07:47 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.996$6,972— (SELL)
Jun 22, 07:22 AMStarmer out by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.969$8,331Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:35 AM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?BUY NO0.967$11.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:35 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.996$19.9K— (SELL)
Jun 22, 06:32 AMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?BUY YES0.936$7,485Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:31 AMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.964$19.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 12:28 AMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.963$9,630Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 12:27 AMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.963$9,630Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:50 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?BUY YES0.951$14.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:26 AM0x4ba34832BUY YES0.987$9,472Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:02 AMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?SELL YES0.987$12.9K— (SELL)
May 23, 12:59 AM0x4ba34832BUY YES0.986$2,464Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:00 PMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.982$2,549Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$89.4K+$1,681
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other4$66.8K$-66,812
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?Other2$38.9K+$38.9K
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$38.5K+$38.5K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Other3$29.1K+$12.3K
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Politics2$27.7K+$2,007
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Other2$15.5K$-494
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Other2$14.8K+$14.8K
0x4ba34832—2$11.9K+$11.9K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Other1$11.6K+$11.6K
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Politics1$11.5K+$11.5K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech1$9,444+$9,444
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?Crypto2$7,206+$192
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Crypto2$3,801+$3,801
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Other1$2,549+$2,549
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Politics1$1,928+$1,928