XAE12Archangel

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfbfd…0029 with our methodology badges per row.

0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-36%

historical realized

Win rate

63.2%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$550.3K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 92 resolved trades · -36% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$881.6K

avg $4,408 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$513.7K / $368.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 11, 10:34 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.992	$3,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:59 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:28 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.943	$1,250	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:57 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.941	$2,510	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:03 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.679	$1,358	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:03 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	SELL NO	0.857	$1,687	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:21 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,058	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:18 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.930	$3,078	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:44 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	SELL NO	0.805	$1,343	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:41 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,484	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:49 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL NO	0.850	$1,641	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:37 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	BUY NO	0.951	$1,459	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:01 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.430	$3,014	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:58 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.982	$2,161	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:50 PM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	SELL YES	0.964	$1,708	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:33 PM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	SELL YES	0.963	$1,089	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:33 PM	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?	SELL NO	0.947	$1,638	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:07 PM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,720	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:08 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.988	$1,796	— (SELL)
May 31, 11:01 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	BUY NO	0.819	$1,242	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:15 AM	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?	BUY NO	0.949	$1,294	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:14 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,098	— (SELL)
May 30, 12:08 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,492	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:32 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.959	$2,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:25 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL NO	0.635	$1,269	— (SELL)
May 28, 12:23 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.955	$2,058	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:25 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.982	$4,910	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:18 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,713	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:31 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:04 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.956	$3,684	— (SELL)
May 23, 07:59 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.900	$1,617	— (SELL)
May 23, 07:37 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.970	$1,222	— (SELL)
May 23, 07:27 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.900	$1,440	— (SELL)
May 23, 06:04 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:02 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.968	$1,445	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:42 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.894	$1,667	— (SELL)
May 22, 08:40 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.965	$2,257	— (SELL)
May 22, 03:17 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.939	$1,408	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:13 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,208	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 11:22 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$4,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 10:35 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.950	$6,369	— (SELL)
May 20, 07:20 AM	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	SELL NO	0.802	$1,544	— (SELL)
May 19, 02:15 PM	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	SELL NO	0.693	$1,273	— (SELL)
May 18, 06:59 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.940	$4,839	— (SELL)
May 18, 06:59 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.981	$5,768	— (SELL)
May 18, 06:26 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$2,040	— (SELL)
May 18, 06:25 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.870	$4,152	— (SELL)
May 18, 05:32 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,119	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:28 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,881	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 11:03 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$5,213	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:34 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:20 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,899	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:32 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,686	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:21 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:40 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.990	$2,469	— (SELL)
May 12, 09:50 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.982	$3,577	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 09:50 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 04:01 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.983	$3,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 06:16 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.969	$11.5K	— (SELL)
May 11, 12:20 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$3,574	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 05:24 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	SELL NO	0.992	$2,880	— (SELL)
May 10, 06:51 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 04:10 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,050	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 02:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	SELL NO	0.990	$1,044	— (SELL)
May 8, 08:14 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:11 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.948	$1,422	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:13 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:04 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	SELL NO	0.974	$1,948	— (SELL)
May 6, 09:53 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:52 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY NO	0.987	$5,682	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:54 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,458	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 07:06 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$11.2K	— (SELL)
May 3, 05:40 PM	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	SELL YES	0.160	$1,280	— (SELL)
May 3, 08:21 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,233	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:05 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY NO	0.984	$9,041	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 10:07 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,595	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 01:26 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.951	$9,507	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 06:53 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.002	$2,099	—
Apr 28, 01:02 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.962	$28.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 12:52 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.963	$28.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 09:52 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$3,954	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 09:43 AM	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	SELL NO	0.845	$1,104	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 09:37 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL NO	0.940	$2,089	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 06:22 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,191	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:38 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.001	$2,051	— (SELL)
Apr 26, 03:38 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.001	$4,250	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 03:36 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.002	$3,885	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 07:58 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,032	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 07:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.979	$3,177	— (SELL)
Apr 20, 07:34 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,618	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 07:34 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,868	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:43 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.822	$2,282	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 05:40 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,588	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 05:30 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$4,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 02:48 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.996	$47.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 12:34 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 09:51 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 04:35 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 07:42 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.993	$40.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 07:06 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,160	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:59 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$4,915	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:58 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,796	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.986	$8,714	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.978	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:57 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 02:36 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.983	$2,245	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 12:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.983	$2,210	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:28 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,712	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 03:17 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,662	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:16 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.870	$7,569	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:16 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$9,100	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:12 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$9,100	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 05:38 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$1,163	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 05:38 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$13.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 05:37 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.994	$44.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 03:38 AM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	SELL YES	0.910	$1,938	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 02:14 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.986	$3,849	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 02:06 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	SELL YES	0.690	$2,261	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 02:00 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	SELL NO	0.980	$13.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 01:46 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.900	$1,003	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:46 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.987	$6,655	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:46 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	SELL NO	0.980	$4,900	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:43 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,027	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:43 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.971	$5,266	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 01:42 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.961	$1,839	— (SELL)
Apr 11, 12:15 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 12:15 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.983	$4,915	— (SELL)
Apr 11, 12:15 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 04:52 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,378	— (SELL)
Apr 10, 04:52 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$1,136	— (SELL)
Apr 10, 03:48 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$8,814	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 03:48 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,018	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 05:41 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.982	$1,964	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 04:46 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,653	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 04:45 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.982	$4,910	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 04:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:50 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.974	$4,161	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:49 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,361	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 03:47 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$7,549	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 03:41 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.958	$2,452	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:41 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.928	$1,262	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:40 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.974	$2,918	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:35 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.890	$1,119	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 02:31 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	SELL NO	0.970	$3,899	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 02:29 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.955	$2,463	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 01:06 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.958	$2,469	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 12:48 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,430	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 12:47 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.955	$2,608	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 12:33 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.690	$2,070	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 11:03 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.956	$2,400	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 11:03 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.957	$1,092	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 02:22 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.974	$1,516	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:22 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.956	$1,673	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:21 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$7,786	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 11:33 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 11:27 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,231	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 11:23 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.984	$5,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:24 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.981	$3,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:24 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.988	$2,900	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 02:31 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.992	$8,886	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:21 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,161	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:44 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$3,464	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 10:34 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.973	$4,410	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 10:32 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,446	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:06 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.969	$7,765	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:06 AM	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.989	$7,651	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 08:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,177	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 12:59 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,523	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:14 AM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,305	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:10 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:10 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.954	$1,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:05 AM	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,461	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:05 AM	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,676	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 01:02 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.973	$2,117	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 08:04 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.982	$1,051	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 11:51 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.993	$28.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 11:08 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.993	$14.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:58 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.990	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 11:40 PM	0x4befb52f	SELL NO	0.992	$2,927	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 08:06 PM	0x306d10d4	SELL NO	0.929	$6,528	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 04:46 AM	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.240	$1,200	Cheap band — no rep
Mar 30, 04:45 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.934	$2,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 04:02 AM	0xf6e44da6	SELL NO	0.998	$3,000	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 01:58 AM	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,079	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 09:49 PM	0x306d10d4	SELL NO	0.850	$4,250	— (SELL)
Mar 28, 10:54 AM	0xfc9ee9c2	SELL NO	0.998	$1,779	— (SELL)
Mar 28, 02:31 AM	0x4befb52f	BUY NO	0.940	$2,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 11:18 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL YES	0.390	$1,369	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 09:55 AM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 09:06 AM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.997	$2,991	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 09:03 AM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.997	$2,991	— (SELL)
Mar 26, 02:08 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.974	$4,822	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 08:21 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,547	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 09:56 PM	0x09e8f0db	BUY NO	0.995	$3,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 04:16 PM	0xec63b99c	SELL NO	0.997	$1,616	— (SELL)
Mar 25, 06:28 AM	0x09e8f0db	BUY NO	0.996	$8,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 06:28 AM	0xf6e44da6	SELL NO	0.997	$1,715	— (SELL)
Mar 24, 08:31 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL YES	0.240	$1,200	— (SELL)
Mar 24, 12:03 PM	0xf6e44da6	BUY NO	0.990	$1,991	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

56 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	10	$208.2K	+$199.7K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Other	25	$97.8K	+$19.3K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Other	15	$89.0K	+$16.9K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	4	$61.7K	$-58,761
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Other	17	$60.4K	+$5,569
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Other	11	$56.5K	+$11.4K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	8	$48.4K	$-13,177
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Other	11	$25.0K	$-2,614
0x09e8f0db	—	5	$20.1K	+$4,169
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Other	4	$18.6K	+$10.8K
0x306d10d4	—	3	$13.6K	$-7,977
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$12.5K	$-10,426
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	6	$12.4K	+$2,173
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Other	3	$10.2K	$-5,110
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Other	4	$10.0K	+$5,864
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Other	4	$9,146	$-887
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Other	3	$8,381	+$8,381
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	3	$7,462	$-7,462
0xf6e44da6	—	3	$6,707	$-2,724
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Other	4	$6,040	$-3,430
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$5,936	$-5,936
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Other	1	$5,768	$-5,768
0x4befb52f	—	2	$5,747	$-107
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Other	3	$5,251	+$5,251
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Other	2	$4,906	$-4,906
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Other	3	$4,860	+$4,860
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	3	$4,797	$-1,317
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Other	4	$4,670	$-134
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	2	$4,110	$-4,110
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	2	$3,924	$-3,924

Showing top 30 by volume.