| Jun 13, 02:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.450 | $1,359 | —— |
| Jun 13, 02:45 PM | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $2,214 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:32 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $4,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:30 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $4,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 12:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $4,410 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:44 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $3,616 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 12:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,272 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:05 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $4,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 05:09 AM | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $9,857 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 05:08 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $9,941 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:59 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $9,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:54 AM | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $9,072 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:52 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $12.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $9,199 | —— |
| Jun 13, 02:04 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $9,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 12:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $5,908 | —— |
| Jun 12, 08:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $4,230 | —— |
| Jun 12, 08:28 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $3,036 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $1,131 | —— |
| Jun 12, 08:05 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $2,760 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,680 | —— |
| Jun 12, 07:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,850 | —— |
| Jun 12, 07:49 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $7,360 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,450 | —— |
| Jun 12, 07:41 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $4,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:23 PM | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $6,773 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $3,837 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:36 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $2,947 | —— |
| Jun 12, 11:14 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.841 | $8,061 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.882 | $2,392 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:54 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.862 | $1,283 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:51 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.865 | $6,578 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:51 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.858 | $5,671 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:12 AM | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 12:57 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $5,649 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 09:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $1,179 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 09:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $3,030 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 12:53 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $7,997 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:36 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $2,448 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:01 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.748 | $1,073 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 01:43 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.986 | $27.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 11:39 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $3,211 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:38 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.986 | $8,525 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 10:18 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $2,068 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:38 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $18.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:41 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.987 | $3,591 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 02:08 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $38.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:07 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.986 | $38.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 12:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.951 | $2,245 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 11:58 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $2,248 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:20 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $5,103 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:17 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $8,467 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:17 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $1,363 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $5,225 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:58 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $16.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:24 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:38 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,734 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:37 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $8,945 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:37 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $1,289 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:37 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $47.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:37 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $3,068 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:36 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $177.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 08:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $72.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,301 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $2,847 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,595 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $24.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,494 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,656 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $31.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $16.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:37 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:29 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $2,204 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:27 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $5,398 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.916 | $1,229 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:22 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.930 | $3,798 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.945 | $3,969 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $1,415 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,879 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $14.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:04 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.977 | $25.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 01:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $9,790 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 01:07 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $2,604 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 01:07 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $2,822 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 01:07 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $1,683 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 01:07 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $1,831 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 03:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $29.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $28.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 03:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $21.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:11 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $3,587 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 01:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $3,909 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 01:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.946 | $1,219 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 01:20 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.971 | $5,146 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 09:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $1,949 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $24.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $3,050 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:47 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.972 | $12.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 02:47 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.973 | $19.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 12:26 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.973 | $1,460 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 12:25 AM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.918 | $11.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 12:24 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.973 | $9,730 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 12:22 AM | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | SELL YES | 0.964 | $2,073 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 10:57 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,518 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:04 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $19.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 03:35 PM | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 03:34 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.930 | $1,209 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 06:08 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $3,394 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 05:56 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.988 | $2,182 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 02:01 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $59.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 01:58 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.989 | $8,815 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 01:58 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.996 | $44.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 11:11 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $4,767 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 11:10 AM | 0xfcde02af | BUY YES | 0.848 | $5,086 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 11:09 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.981 | $9,810 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 11:07 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $3,586 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |