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gaven-willwin

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfbe6…00f8 with our methodology badges per row.

0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
91
lifetime
PnL per $
-45%
historical realized
Win rate
46.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$1.05M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 91 resolved trades · -45% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
119
Distinct markets
21
Volume (90d)
$1.25M
avg $10.5K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$675.6K / $575.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 119 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 13, 02:45 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.450$1,359
Jun 13, 02:45 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?BUY YES0.820$2,214Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:32 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$4,600— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:30 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$4,600— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:57 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.490$4,410
Jun 13, 12:44 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$3,616— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:07 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.500$1,272
Jun 13, 12:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$4,600— (SELL)
Jun 13, 05:09 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?BUY YES0.810$9,857Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:08 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$9,941— (SELL)
Jun 13, 04:59 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$9,200— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:54 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?BUY YES0.810$9,072Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:52 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$12.0K— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:51 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.600$9,199
Jun 13, 02:04 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$9,200— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:26 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.590$5,908
Jun 12, 08:30 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.570$4,230
Jun 12, 08:28 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$3,036— (SELL)
Jun 12, 08:05 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.540$1,131
Jun 12, 08:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$2,760— (SELL)
Jun 12, 07:51 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.560$1,680
Jun 12, 07:50 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.560$1,850
Jun 12, 07:49 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$7,360— (SELL)
Jun 12, 07:42 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.550$1,450
Jun 12, 07:41 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$4,600— (SELL)
Jun 12, 12:23 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?BUY YES0.820$6,773Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:39 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.610$3,837Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:36 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.600$2,947
Jun 12, 11:14 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$11.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:10 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.841$8,061— (SELL)
Jun 11, 09:10 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.882$2,392Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:54 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.862$1,283Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:51 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.865$6,578Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:51 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.858$5,671Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:12 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?BUY YES0.690$11.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:57 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.740$5,649Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:24 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.810$1,179— (SELL)
Jun 9, 09:11 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.820$3,030— (SELL)
Jun 9, 12:53 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.750$7,997Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:36 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$2,448Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:01 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.748$1,073Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 01:43 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.986$27.1K— (SELL)
Jun 5, 11:39 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$3,211Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:38 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.986$8,525— (SELL)
Jun 5, 10:18 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$2,068Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:38 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$18.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:41 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.987$3,591— (SELL)
Jun 5, 02:08 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$38.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:07 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.986$38.5K— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:02 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.951$2,245Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:58 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.983$2,248— (SELL)
Jun 2, 06:20 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.730$5,103Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 06:18 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.860$4,730Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 06:17 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.983$8,467— (SELL)
Jun 2, 06:17 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.983$1,363— (SELL)
Jun 2, 06:11 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.950$5,225Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:58 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.983$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:24 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.920$12.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:38 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$1,734Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.982$8,945Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.982$1,289Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.983$47.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.982$3,068Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:36 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.999$177.6K— (SELL)
May 27, 08:33 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.790$72.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:16 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.770$2,301Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:47 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.650$2,847Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.650$3,900Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.640$1,595Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.750$24.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.740$1,494Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:09 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.910$1,656Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:06 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.900$2,203Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:39 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.920$31.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:38 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?SELL NO0.997$16.1K— (SELL)
May 23, 02:37 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?SELL NO0.998$15.0K— (SELL)
May 22, 12:29 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.850$2,204Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:27 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.920$5,398— (SELL)
May 20, 03:23 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.916$1,229Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:22 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.930$3,798— (SELL)
May 20, 03:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.945$3,969Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.944$1,415Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:10 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.940$4,879Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:10 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.939$14.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:04 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.977$25.5K— (SELL)
May 16, 01:08 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.890$9,790Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 01:07 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.980$2,604— (SELL)
May 16, 01:07 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.980$2,822— (SELL)
May 16, 01:07 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.980$1,683— (SELL)
May 16, 01:07 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.980$1,831— (SELL)
May 15, 03:27 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$29.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:27 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?SELL NO0.997$28.9K— (SELL)
May 15, 03:25 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$21.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:11 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$3,587Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:21 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?BUY NO0.953$3,909Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:20 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?BUY NO0.946$1,219Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:20 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.971$5,146— (SELL)
May 10, 09:58 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?BUY NO0.967$1,949Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:52 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.840$24.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:51 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?BUY NO0.910$3,050Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:47 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.972$12.6K— (SELL)
May 10, 02:47 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.973$19.3K— (SELL)
May 10, 12:26 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.973$1,460— (SELL)
May 10, 12:25 AMUS x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?BUY NO0.918$11.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:24 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.973$9,730— (SELL)
May 10, 12:22 AMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?SELL YES0.964$2,073— (SELL)
May 8, 10:57 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.900$1,518Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 09:04 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.960$19.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 03:35 PMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?BUY YES0.900$1,170Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 03:34 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.930$1,209— (SELL)
Apr 26, 06:08 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$3,394Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 05:56 AMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?SELL YES0.988$2,182— (SELL)
Apr 26, 02:01 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$59.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 01:58 AMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?SELL YES0.989$8,815— (SELL)
Apr 26, 01:58 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.996$44.7K— (SELL)
Apr 12, 11:11 AMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?BUY YES0.810$4,767Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 11:10 AM0xfcde02afBUY YES0.848$5,086Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 11:09 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.981$9,810— (SELL)
Apr 12, 11:07 AMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?BUY YES0.800$3,586Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

21 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance26$333.1K$-14,274
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other9$322.2K$-32,942
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance24$179.7K+$10.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other5$60.6K+$60.6K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Other7$57.3K$-4,805
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Finance2$54.5K$-54,548
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Other2$53.3K$-4,543
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other15$48.6K+$40.2K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Other4$27.9K+$27.9K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Other5$24.0K+$7,863
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Other4$19.4K$-2,643
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance3$14.7K+$14.7K
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Politics1$11.7K+$11.7K
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Other1$11.5K+$11.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Other2$7,470+$7,470
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Other3$7,077+$7,077
0xfcde02af1$5,086+$5,086
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other1$4,730+$4,730
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Finance2$3,243$-903
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Other1$3,050+$3,050
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other1$2,204+$2,204