gaven-willwin

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfbe6…00f8 with our methodology badges per row.

0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-41%

historical realized

Win rate

50.3%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.10M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 80 resolved trades · -41% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

128

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.42M

avg $11.1K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$836.7K / $583.5K

net direction

Recent trades

last 128 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 15, 11:58 PM	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	BUY YES	0.639	$48.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 11:56 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.953	$49.6K	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 04:00 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.645	$21.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:58 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.952	$18.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 03:08 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.950	$4,750	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 03:05 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.620	$1,566	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:59 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.950	$1,900	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 02:29 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.616	$1,912	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:29 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.600	$1,406	—
Jul 3, 09:58 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.760	$9,879	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 04:12 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.800	$13.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 08:12 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.810	$59.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 08:09 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.636	$9,903	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:45 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.820	$14.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:25 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.820	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 06:46 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.810	$22.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 08:13 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.740	$22.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 10:29 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.750	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:45 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.790	$2,655	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:43 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.790	$4,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:42 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.500	$1,294	—
Jun 13, 02:45 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.450	$1,359	—
Jun 13, 02:45 PM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY YES	0.820	$2,214	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:32 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$4,600	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:30 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$4,600	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:57 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.490	$4,410	—
Jun 13, 12:44 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$3,616	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:07 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.500	$1,272	—
Jun 13, 12:05 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$4,600	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 05:09 AM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY YES	0.810	$9,857	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:08 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$9,941	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 04:59 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$9,200	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:54 AM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY YES	0.810	$9,072	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:52 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$12.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:51 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.600	$9,199	—
Jun 13, 02:04 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$9,200	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:26 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.590	$5,908	—
Jun 12, 08:30 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.570	$4,230	—
Jun 12, 08:28 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$3,036	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 08:05 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.540	$1,131	—
Jun 12, 08:05 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$2,760	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 07:51 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.560	$1,680	—
Jun 12, 07:50 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.560	$1,850	—
Jun 12, 07:49 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$7,360	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 07:42 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.550	$1,450	—
Jun 12, 07:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$4,600	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 12:23 PM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY YES	0.820	$6,773	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:39 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.610	$3,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:36 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.600	$2,947	—
Jun 12, 11:14 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.930	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:10 AM	0x876047c0	SELL NO	0.841	$8,061	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 09:10 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.882	$2,392	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:54 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.862	$1,283	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:51 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.865	$6,578	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:51 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.858	$5,671	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:12 AM	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY YES	0.690	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:57 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.740	$5,649	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:24 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.810	$1,179	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 09:11 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.820	$3,030	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 12:53 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.750	$7,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:36 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.940	$2,448	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:01 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.748	$1,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 01:43 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.986	$27.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 11:39 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.940	$3,211	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:38 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.986	$8,525	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 10:18 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.940	$2,068	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:38 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.940	$18.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.987	$3,591	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 02:08 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.940	$38.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:07 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.986	$38.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:02 AM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.951	$2,245	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:58 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$2,248	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 06:20 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.730	$5,103	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 06:18 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$4,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 06:17 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$8,467	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 06:17 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$1,363	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 06:11 AM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.950	$5,225	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:58 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:24 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.920	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:38 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,734	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.982	$8,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.982	$1,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$47.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:37 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.982	$3,068	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:36 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$177.6K	— (SELL)
May 27, 08:33 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$72.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:16 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.770	$2,301	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:47 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.650	$2,847	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.650	$3,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.640	$1,595	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.750	$24.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:46 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.740	$1,494	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:09 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,656	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:06 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:39 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.920	$31.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:38 AM	0x53098776	SELL NO	0.997	$16.1K	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:37 AM	0x53098776	SELL NO	0.998	$15.0K	— (SELL)
May 22, 12:29 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.850	$2,204	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:27 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.920	$5,398	— (SELL)
May 20, 03:23 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.916	$1,229	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:22 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.930	$3,798	— (SELL)
May 20, 03:15 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.945	$3,969	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:15 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.944	$1,415	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:10 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.940	$4,879	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:10 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.939	$14.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:04 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.977	$25.5K	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:08 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$9,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 01:07 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$2,604	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:07 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$2,822	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:07 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$1,683	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:07 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$1,831	— (SELL)
May 15, 03:27 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$29.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:27 PM	0x1db02ba5	SELL NO	0.997	$28.9K	— (SELL)
May 15, 03:25 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$21.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:11 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.910	$3,587	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:21 PM	0x667c01a1	BUY NO	0.953	$3,909	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:20 PM	0x667c01a1	BUY NO	0.946	$1,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:20 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.971	$5,146	— (SELL)
May 10, 09:58 AM	0x667c01a1	BUY NO	0.967	$1,949	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:52 AM	0x1db02ba5	BUY NO	0.840	$24.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:51 AM	0x2509daa2	BUY NO	0.910	$3,050	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:47 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.972	$12.6K	— (SELL)
May 10, 02:47 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.973	$19.3K	— (SELL)
May 10, 12:26 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.973	$1,460	— (SELL)
May 10, 12:25 AM	0xda2386db	BUY NO	0.918	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:24 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.973	$9,730	— (SELL)
May 10, 12:22 AM	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	SELL YES	0.964	$2,073	— (SELL)
May 8, 10:57 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,518	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

20 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	37	$416.7K	+$98.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	9	$322.2K	$-32,942
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	22	$249.7K	$-95,250
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Other	5	$60.6K	+$60.6K
0x53098776	—	7	$57.3K	$-4,805
0x1db02ba5	—	2	$53.3K	$-4,543
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Finance	9	$52.0K	+$52.0K
0x6114a8a3	—	15	$48.6K	+$40.2K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Finance	1	$48.2K	+$48.2K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Other	4	$27.9K	+$27.9K
0x876047c0	—	5	$24.0K	+$7,863
0xda2386db	—	1	$11.7K	+$11.7K
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Other	1	$11.5K	+$11.5K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$9,879	+$9,879
0x366f8964	—	2	$7,470	+$7,470
0x667c01a1	—	3	$7,077	+$7,077
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	1	$4,730	+$4,730
0x2509daa2	—	1	$3,050	+$3,050
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	1	$2,204	+$2,204
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Finance	1	$2,073	$-2,073