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timemachinee
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfb74…1513 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
4
lifetime
PnL per $
-57%
historical realized
Win rate
40.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$10.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 4 resolved trades · -57% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
4
Distinct markets
3
Volume (90d)
$56.8K
avg $14.2K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$44.7K / $12.1K
net direction
Recent trades
last 4 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 05:54 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,037 | — |
| May 15, 03:38 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,158 | — |
| May 12, 04:54 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $42.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:37 AM | 0xcddc048c | SELL NO | 0.980 | $12.1K | — (SELL) |
Markets active in
3 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Other | 1 | $42.5K | +$42.5K |
| 0xcddc048c | — | 1 | $12.1K | $-12,096 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Crypto | 2 | $2,195 | +$2,195 |