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unbribeableref

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf742…e039 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf7429705e25b619338412967f0a70260b6e1e039·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
114
lifetime
PnL per $
+17%
historical realized
Win rate
57.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$741.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
130
Distinct markets
72
Volume (90d)
$793.4K
avg $6,103 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$448.0K / $345.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 130 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 08:47 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.380$19.0K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 08:46 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.380$38.0K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 07:12 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.420$42.0K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 04:46 PMWill Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?BUY NO0.810$1,048Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 03:00 PMExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?BUY NO0.961$11.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:16 AMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?SELL YES0.422$10.6K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 08:13 AMWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.919$24.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:22 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.416$22.1K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 08:17 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.416$39.1K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 08:14 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.584$2,920
Jul 16, 08:12 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.584$1,168
Jul 16, 03:13 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.581$4,859
Jul 16, 03:10 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.581$11.6K
Jul 16, 03:08 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.581$32.0K
Jul 16, 01:05 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?BUY YES0.420$10.5K
Jul 16, 01:04 PMWill France win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.500$20.0K
Jul 16, 12:52 PMWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.901$26.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 11:28 PMWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.900$2,518Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:08 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.435$7,163— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:08 PMWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?BUY YES0.432$3,460
Jul 15, 08:07 PMWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?BUY YES0.432$3,953
Jul 15, 08:05 PMWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?BUY YES0.427$5,863
Jul 15, 07:13 PMWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?BUY YES0.350$1,503Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 15, 07:09 PMWill England win on 2026-07-15?BUY NO0.635$34.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:53 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.561$2,193— (SELL)
Jul 14, 05:15 PMWill England win on 2026-07-15?BUY NO0.642$1,638Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:46 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.174$1,020— (SELL)
Jul 12, 04:05 AMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY YES0.930$1,264Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:08 AMWill Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?SELL YES0.570$5,862— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:42 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.179$6,508Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 11, 06:40 PMWill Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?BUY YES0.550$6,099
Jul 10, 02:58 PMWill Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY YES0.285$1,823Conviction tier
Jul 10, 07:41 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?BUY YES0.573$3,375
Jul 9, 11:41 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.173$8,380Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:12 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.170$1,710Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 05:25 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.321$6,414Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 09:16 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?BUY YES0.230$2,333Conviction tier
Jul 7, 04:54 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.720$7,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:30 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?BUY YES0.460$3,722
Jul 7, 03:48 PMWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY YES0.650$2,013Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:07 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.740$7,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:06 PMSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to ScoreSELL YES0.500$1,023— (SELL)
Jul 7, 12:20 AMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-06?SELL YES0.620$3,100— (SELL)
Jul 6, 07:11 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?SELL NO0.530$3,501— (SELL)
Jul 6, 04:35 PMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?SELL YES0.930$1,854— (SELL)
Jul 6, 02:16 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.167$8,350Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 11:53 AMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.046$3,659— (SELL)
Jul 6, 10:57 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.140$1,235— (SELL)
Jul 6, 03:39 AMWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY YES0.270$5,400Conviction tier
Jul 6, 02:18 AMWill England win on 2026-07-05?BUY YES0.440$4,400
Jul 6, 01:51 AMWill England win on 2026-07-05?BUY YES0.580$5,800
Jul 5, 06:23 PMWill United States win on 2026-07-06?SELL NO0.610$11.4K— (SELL)
Jul 5, 05:59 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-06?SELL YES0.340$10.2K— (SELL)
Jul 4, 11:55 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.125$5,853Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 09:52 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.124$1,668Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 09:47 PMWill Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.223$1,187Conviction tier
Jul 4, 09:18 PMWill France win on 2026-07-04?SELL YES0.810$8,100— (SELL)
Jul 4, 01:27 PMWill Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.400$1,348— (SELL)
Jul 3, 11:44 PMWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.026$3,175
Jul 3, 11:41 PMWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.009$1,514
Jul 3, 09:55 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?BUY YES0.510$5,100
Jul 3, 09:51 PMWill USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.500$2,058
Jul 3, 04:41 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?SELL NO0.590$2,950— (SELL)
Jul 3, 01:44 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?SELL YES0.485$4,969— (SELL)
Jul 3, 12:42 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02?SELL YES0.236$1,179— (SELL)
Jul 3, 12:41 AMWill Croatia win on 2026-07-02?SELL NO0.849$4,243— (SELL)
Jul 3, 12:39 AMWill Croatia win on 2026-07-02?SELL NO0.850$4,250— (SELL)
Jul 2, 07:02 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?BUY YES0.730$7,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:15 PMWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY YES0.210$2,572Conviction tier
Jul 2, 05:10 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?SELL YES0.512$4,152— (SELL)
Jul 2, 10:37 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.100$6,030Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 09:56 PMWill USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.490$1,713
Jul 1, 09:30 PMBelgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.540$2,700
Jul 1, 09:27 PMBelgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.520$5,200
Jul 1, 07:58 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?BUY NO0.490$4,900
Jul 1, 05:57 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.102$1,632Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 04:21 PMWill Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.196$1,092Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 02:37 PMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.038$1,140
Jun 30, 02:18 AMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-29?BUY YES0.250$1,629Conviction tier
Jun 30, 01:52 AMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-29?BUY YES0.240$2,258Conviction tier
Jun 30, 01:24 AMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.630$3,150Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:17 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?SELL NO0.580$5,799— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:16 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?SELL NO0.770$7,695— (SELL)
Jun 28, 07:55 PMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?SELL NO0.820$16.4K— (SELL)
Jun 28, 07:19 PMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?BUY NO0.790$7,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 06:05 PMWill Canada win on 2026-06-28?BUY YES0.530$2,650
Jun 27, 11:54 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.085$1,264— (SELL)
Jun 27, 11:49 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.500$5,000
Jun 27, 11:36 PMWill DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.460$2,300
Jun 27, 05:59 PMWill Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?SELL YES0.300$3,950— (SELL)
Jun 27, 12:17 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?SELL NO0.420$3,049— (SELL)
Jun 27, 11:26 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY YES0.490$2,450
Jun 27, 02:05 AMWill Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?BUY YES0.360$6,480Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 12:32 AMWill Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY YES0.320$1,600Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 12:27 AMWill Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY YES0.310$1,550Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 12:25 AMWill Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?BUY YES0.320$1,600Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 12:21 AMWill Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?BUY YES0.320$1,600Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 09:50 PMWill Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?SELL YES0.360$1,800— (SELL)
Jun 26, 07:21 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.193$10.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 07:21 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.191$2,760Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 04:58 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.046$2,300— (SELL)
Jun 26, 04:33 PMWill France win on 2026-06-26?SELL NO0.350$1,750— (SELL)
Jun 26, 04:07 PMWill Spain win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.580$1,160
Jun 26, 01:13 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.550$1,410
Jun 26, 03:14 AMWill Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?BUY YES0.590$1,770
Jun 26, 02:58 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?SELL NO0.790$31.6K— (SELL)
Jun 26, 01:08 AMWill Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?SELL YES0.270$2,700— (SELL)
Jun 25, 06:17 PMWill Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?SELL YES0.420$1,260— (SELL)
Jun 25, 08:40 AMWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.340$1,700Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 08:11 AMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.349$3,490Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 07:11 PMWill Canada win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.710$3,550Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:03 AMWill DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?SELL YES0.230$1,150— (SELL)
Jun 23, 11:13 PMWill Croatia win on 2026-06-23?BUY NO0.360$1,800Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 08:22 PMWill England win on 2026-06-23?SELL YES0.800$1,126— (SELL)
Jun 23, 07:06 PMWill France win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.400$2,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 05:05 PMPortugal leading at halftime?SELL NO0.340$1,162— (SELL)
Jun 23, 10:39 AMPortugal leading at halftime?BUY NO0.330$3,300Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 09:22 AMWill Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?BUY YES0.360$1,080Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 09:20 AMWill Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?BUY YES0.280$1,400Conviction tier
Jun 23, 09:03 AMWill Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?BUY YES0.270$5,735Conviction tier
Jun 23, 08:43 AMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.760$3,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 05:42 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.840$2,386Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 04:42 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.056$2,800— (SELL)
Jun 21, 11:36 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY NO0.530$2,650
Jun 21, 11:36 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY NO0.530$5,300
Jun 21, 11:29 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?SELL YES0.470$3,218— (SELL)
Jun 21, 11:01 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.890$8,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:20 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?SELL YES0.700$2,100— (SELL)
Jun 21, 11:43 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.520$5,200
Jun 21, 11:05 AMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.680$2,040Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

72 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other11$187.4K$-149,477
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech9$74.3K+$69.9K
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$52.7K+$52.7K
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Other2$36.8K$-26,400
Will England win on 2026-07-15?Other2$35.9K+$35.9K
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Other2$24.3K$-8,500
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Tech2$21.1K$-62
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Other4$20.1K+$13.6K
Will France win on 2026-07-18?Other1$20.0K+$20.0K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$19.4K+$19.4K
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?Other4$14.8K+$14.8K
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Other2$13.3K$-13,300
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?Other2$12.0K+$237
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Tech1$11.7K+$11.7K
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?Other1$11.4K$-11,413
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Other2$10.7K$-10,745
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?Crypto3$10.4K$-1,239
Will England win on 2026-07-05?Other2$10.2K+$10.2K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?Other2$9,733+$9,733
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?Other2$9,685+$1,785
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Other3$9,360+$5,760
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?Other2$9,121$-9,121
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?Other2$8,493$-8,493
Will France win on 2026-07-04?Other1$8,100$-8,100
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreOther2$7,900+$7,900
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Other2$7,450+$7,450
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?Tech1$7,300+$7,300
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Other1$7,200+$7,200
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?Tech1$5,400+$5,400
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Other1$5,100+$5,100

Showing top 30 by volume.