sbimbg

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf519…906b with our methodology badges per row.

0xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906b·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+25%

historical realized

Win rate

81.8%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$837.9K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)

119

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$972.6K

avg $8,173 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$821.7K / $151.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 119 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 19, 09:12 PM	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.930	$1,445	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:07 PM	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.857	$7,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:00 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	SELL NO	0.900	$11.3K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 08:57 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	SELL NO	0.897	$6,953	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 08:00 PM	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	SELL NO	0.593	$10.7K	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:35 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL YES	0.340	$3,206	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 08:41 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY YES	0.150	$3,601	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 18, 08:40 PM	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 England?	BUY NO	0.940	$14.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 08:39 PM	Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?	BUY NO	0.962	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 08:35 PM	Will France vs. England end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.780	$19.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:51 PM	Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?	SELL NO	0.578	$1,931	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 07:19 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	BUY NO	0.723	$18.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:31 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.048	$1,025	—
Jul 14, 08:30 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.049	$1,138	—
Jul 14, 07:41 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	SELL NO	0.440	$8,809	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 07:57 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	SELL YES	0.545	$6,943	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 07:52 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	SELL NO	0.863	$15.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 07:24 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	SELL YES	0.580	$4,674	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 06:39 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	BUY YES	0.590	$17.7K	—
Jul 10, 06:35 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	BUY YES	0.593	$25.5K	—
Jul 10, 04:56 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	BUY NO	0.840	$25.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:50 PM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	BUY NO	0.940	$9,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:05 PM	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	BUY NO	0.650	$6,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:24 PM	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	BUY NO	0.590	$29.5K	—
Jul 7, 06:00 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	BUY YES	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:00 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	BUY YES	0.939	$9,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:59 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	BUY YES	0.940	$4,234	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:53 PM	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.730	$7,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:35 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.200	$20.9K	Conviction tier
Jul 7, 11:16 AM	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?	SELL NO	0.981	$3,811	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 10:58 PM	Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?	SELL NO	0.940	$9,400	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:01 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	BUY YES	0.931	$4,653	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:56 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	BUY YES	0.920	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:32 PM	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	BUY NO	0.830	$8,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 06:25 PM	Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY NO	0.670	$5,360	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:52 AM	Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Belgium?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,028	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 07:53 PM	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.866	$4,769	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:47 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.117	$1,251	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 06:11 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.108	$1,874	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 09:58 PM	Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.950	$4,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:39 PM	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.490	$1,415	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 01:13 AM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.730	$7,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:21 AM	Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco?	BUY NO	0.953	$1,315	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 08:02 PM	Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay?	BUY NO	0.962	$1,493	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 06:52 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:49 PM	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.810	$1,320	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 07:25 PM	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	SELL NO	0.790	$23.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 05:11 PM	Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL NO	0.300	$9,000	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 05:11 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL YES	0.130	$2,724	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 05:57 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:38 AM	Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,240	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 07:50 PM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL YES	0.320	$3,639	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 07:11 PM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.390	$1,658	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 09:51 PM	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.700	$2,411	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 08:19 AM	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY NO	0.930	$5,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 08:15 AM	Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,848	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:54 PM	Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,490	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:54 PM	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?	BUY NO	0.900	$5,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:53 PM	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY NO	0.890	$5,340	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:53 PM	Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:51 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.880	$5,280	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:50 PM	Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:49 PM	Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY NO	0.910	$5,457	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:48 PM	Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY NO	0.910	$5,460	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:47 PM	Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY NO	0.840	$5,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:29 PM	Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,272	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:29 PM	Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,881	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:54 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,739	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:31 PM	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.670	$3,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:29 PM	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.840	$4,254	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:53 AM	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL NO	0.300	$1,145	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 07:57 AM	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL YES	0.640	$1,697	— (SELL)
May 28, 02:56 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$8,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:15 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.752	$10.4K	— (SELL)
May 27, 06:18 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$8,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:58 PM	0xf6f12a1e	BUY YES	0.520	$5,046	—
May 23, 04:20 PM	0xa6a6b8e3	BUY YES	0.840	$2,720	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:10 PM	0xa6a6b8e3	BUY YES	0.690	$3,286	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:47 PM	0xf6f12a1e	BUY YES	0.350	$1,149	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 08:30 PM	0x725ddeb8	BUY YES	0.720	$3,256	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 08:29 PM	0x725ddeb8	BUY YES	0.690	$3,865	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:18 PM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.013	$1,152	— (SELL)
May 21, 07:08 PM	Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$59.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 07:26 PM	0x0f840b13	SELL NO	0.450	$6,438	— (SELL)
May 19, 08:59 PM	0xb99047b9	BUY YES	0.840	$3,843	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 08:33 PM	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$54.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 08:19 PM	0xbb4f0756	BUY YES	0.850	$5,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:42 PM	0x053f9573	SELL NO	0.390	$3,213	— (SELL)
May 18, 09:27 PM	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 08:24 PM	0x95819f16	BUY YES	0.920	$5,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 06:20 PM	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 05:17 PM	Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 04:52 PM	0xa62215c3	BUY YES	0.410	$2,012	—
May 17, 03:51 PM	0x33769d8e	BUY YES	0.740	$1,114	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 03:50 PM	0x33769d8e	BUY YES	0.730	$3,914	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:49 AM	0x8624b864	BUY YES	0.790	$1,947	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:23 AM	Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:41 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY YES	0.261	$1,718	Conviction tier
May 16, 09:14 PM	0xc6ddb19f	BUY YES	0.504	$1,474	—
May 16, 03:49 PM	0x30d49ac0	BUY YES	0.910	$4,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:48 PM	0x30d49ac0	BUY YES	0.890	$4,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:34 PM	0x8fa4e4e7	BUY NO	0.840	$8,344	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:30 PM	0x7e809134	BUY YES	0.640	$6,608	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 06:51 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.883	$3,888	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:52 PM	0xca6ce11f	BUY YES	0.840	$3,959	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:53 PM	0xf33e0690	BUY YES	0.840	$1,565	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:52 PM	0xf33e0690	BUY YES	0.820	$1,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 09:12 PM	0xd982061e	BUY YES	0.760	$3,077	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:45 PM	0x535b665c	BUY YES	0.800	$5,626	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:37 PM	0x831db6dc	BUY YES	0.910	$6,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 04:45 PM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.015	$2,100	— (SELL)
May 12, 07:59 PM	0x00c2a330	BUY YES	0.390	$1,668	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 11, 07:11 PM	Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL NO	0.983	$1,273	— (SELL)
May 9, 08:25 AM	0x0d5b1a5f	BUY YES	0.690	$2,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:51 PM	0xe83055d6	BUY YES	0.680	$1,917	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:46 PM	0x17558c02	BUY YES	0.830	$1,051	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:45 PM	0x17558c02	BUY YES	0.810	$2,849	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:44 PM	0x17558c02	BUY YES	0.800	$3,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:26 PM	0x10e68b6f	BUY YES	0.850	$4,263	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

89 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$154.8K	+$154.8K
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$99.9K	+$99.9K
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$59.9K	+$59.9K
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Tech	4	$54.8K	+$31.6K
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Other	2	$41.1K	+$9,283
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Other	2	$36.0K	+$36.0K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	3	$27.9K	+$7,062
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Other	1	$23.1K	$-23,125
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$20.9K	+$20.9K
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Tech	3	$19.8K	$-1,598
Will France vs. England end in a draw?	Other	1	$19.5K	+$19.5K
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Tech	2	$18.5K	+$18.5K
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Other	3	$18.3K	+$18.3K
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Other	2	$18.2K	$-18,203
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Other	1	$18.1K	+$18.1K
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?	Other	1	$14.4K	+$14.4K
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 England?	Other	1	$14.1K	+$14.1K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Other	1	$9,400	+$9,400
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?	Other	1	$9,400	$-9,400
0x30d49ac0	—	2	$9,110	+$9,110
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Other	1	$9,000	$-9,000
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Tech	1	$8,809	$-8,809
0x8fa4e4e7	—	1	$8,344	+$8,344
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	Other	1	$8,300	+$8,300
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Other	2	$7,604	+$7,604
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Other	1	$7,300	+$7,300
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Other	1	$7,300	+$7,300
0x725ddeb8	—	2	$7,121	+$7,121
0x17558c02	—	3	$7,097	+$7,097
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Other	2	$6,808	+$395

Showing top 30 by volume.