Back to whale feed

AshleySchaeffer

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf387…61c0 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf387570fc0f9d8fa1f07ce798fc98ff909a361c0·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
95
lifetime
PnL per $
-20%
historical realized
Win rate
62.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$349.4K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 95 resolved trades · -20% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
100
Distinct markets
43
Volume (90d)
$422.9K
avg $4,229 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$295.6K / $127.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 100 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 20, 09:56 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.988$30.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:20 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.849$3,982Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:20 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.600$30.0K
Jun 20, 08:20 PMWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?BUY NO0.773$1,949Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 05:22 PMWill Sweden win on 2026-06-20?SELL NO0.986$7,596— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:22 AMWill United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?SELL NO0.990$1,888— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:58 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?SELL YES0.987$6,609— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:51 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY YES0.964$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:51 AMWill United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?BUY NO0.989$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:35 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?SELL NO0.980$2,913— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:32 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.970$2,883Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:31 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?SELL NO0.920$5,943— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:29 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.967$6,241Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:13 AMUnited States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreSELL YES0.580$1,998— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:12 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?SELL YES0.710$13.0K— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:12 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?SELL NO0.910$9,635— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:09 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY YES0.719$14.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:09 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.924$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:09 AMUnited States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.659$4,999Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:27 AMWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?SELL NO0.820$4,591— (SELL)
Jun 12, 03:25 AMWill Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?BUY YES0.289$3,510Cheap band — no rep
Jun 12, 03:25 AMWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.368$2,062Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 10:39 PMWill England win on 2026-06-10?SELL YES0.995$1,371— (SELL)
Jun 10, 10:34 PMWill England win on 2026-06-10?BUY YES0.986$1,358Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 09:54 PMWill England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw?SELL NO0.955$1,603— (SELL)
Jun 10, 09:53 PMWill England win on 2026-06-10?SELL YES0.950$1,222— (SELL)
Jun 10, 09:50 PMWill England win on 2026-06-10?BUY YES0.984$1,770Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 09:50 PMWill England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw?BUY NO0.988$1,648Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:19 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-09?SELL YES0.930$1,733— (SELL)
Jun 10, 01:17 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-09?BUY YES0.835$1,557Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:24 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?SELL YES0.930$1,333— (SELL)
Jun 8, 08:19 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?BUY YES0.958$1,554Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:48 PMWill Jordan win on 2026-06-07?SELL NO0.970$2,280— (SELL)
Jun 7, 11:46 PMWill Jordan win on 2026-06-07?BUY NO0.939$2,208Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:26 PMWill Venezuela win on 2026-06-06?SELL NO0.940$2,260— (SELL)
Jun 6, 11:19 PMWill Venezuela win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.968$4,999Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:12 PMWill Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.544$1,930
Jun 6, 11:12 PMWill Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw?BUY NO0.697$2,283Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:12 PMWill Venezuela win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.878$1,675Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:52 PMWill Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?SELL YES0.534$1,120— (SELL)
Jun 6, 10:45 PMWill Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.351$3,069Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 6, 09:26 PMWill England win on 2026-06-06?SELL YES0.930$2,146— (SELL)
Jun 6, 09:22 PMWill England win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.963$2,662Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 09:22 PMWill England vs. New Zealand end in a draw?BUY NO0.980$1,438Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:48 PMWill England win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.830$4,999Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:48 PMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.979$4,999Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:33 PMWill Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw?BUY NO0.975$1,019Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:27 PMWill Bolivia win on 2026-06-06?SELL NO0.980$1,967— (SELL)
Jun 6, 08:26 PMWill Bolivia win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.987$3,480Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:34 PMWill Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw?SELL NO0.990$1,881— (SELL)
Jun 6, 07:30 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-06?SELL YES0.990$2,721— (SELL)
Jun 6, 07:28 PMWill Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw?BUY NO0.932$4,816Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:28 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.916$2,517Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:13 PMWill Australia win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.946$4,302Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:31 PMWill Chile win on 2026-06-06?SELL NO0.951$4,798— (SELL)
Jun 6, 06:30 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-06?SELL YES0.790$1,165— (SELL)
Jun 6, 06:25 PMWill Chile win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.990$4,999Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:25 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.803$1,185Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:39 AMWill Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw?BUY NO0.922$1,125Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:33 AMWill Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?SELL NO0.990$1,813— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:32 AMWill Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?BUY NO0.955$1,749Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 12:15 AMWill Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?SELL NO0.980$5,160— (SELL)
Jun 5, 12:15 AMWill Czechia win on 2026-06-04?SELL YES0.930$1,715— (SELL)
Jun 5, 12:11 AMWill Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?BUY NO0.951$4,999Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 12:11 AMWill Czechia win on 2026-06-04?BUY YES0.835$1,535Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:01 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?SELL NO0.990$1,504— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:57 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?BUY NO0.960$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:47 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?SELL NO0.910$1,023— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:47 AMWill Haiti win on 2026-06-02?SELL YES0.880$2,587— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:47 AMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-02?SELL NO0.970$2,545— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:46 AMWill Haiti win on 2026-06-02?BUY YES0.660$2,054Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:46 AMHaiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.545$1,127
Jun 3, 01:46 AMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-02?BUY NO0.907$3,991Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:12 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?SELL NO0.720$1,400— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:09 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?BUY NO0.758$1,473Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:49 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?SELL NO0.750$2,886— (SELL)
Jun 3, 12:46 AMWill Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?BUY NO0.696$2,674Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:00 PMWill Senegal win on 2026-05-31?BUY NO0.836$1,005Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:49 PMWill United States win on 2026-05-31?SELL YES0.906$1,340— (SELL)
May 31, 08:46 PMWill United States win on 2026-05-31?BUY YES0.709$1,049Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:27 PMWill United States vs. Senegal end in a draw?SELL YES0.183$1,139— (SELL)
May 31, 08:23 PMWill United States win on 2026-05-31?SELL NO0.281$1,701— (SELL)
May 31, 08:03 PMWill United States win on 2026-05-31?SELL YES0.850$1,667— (SELL)
May 31, 08:01 PMWill United States vs. Senegal end in a draw?SELL NO0.900$1,941— (SELL)
May 31, 07:57 PMWill Senegal win on 2026-05-31?BUY NO0.861$2,653Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:57 PMWill United States win on 2026-05-31?BUY YES0.708$3,699Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:57 PMWill United States vs. Senegal end in a draw?BUY NO0.838$1,807Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:48 PMWill Senegal win on 2026-05-31?SELL NO0.800$1,708— (SELL)
May 31, 07:43 PMWill Senegal win on 2026-05-31?BUY NO0.657$2,167Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:29 PMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?SELL YES0.510$2,715— (SELL)
May 30, 05:29 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?SELL NO0.632$6,692— (SELL)
May 30, 05:29 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?SELL YES0.222$1,606— (SELL)
May 30, 05:26 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY NO0.382$7,000Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 05:26 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY YES0.136$7,000Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 05:26 PMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY YES0.311$5,000Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 04:06 PMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY YES0.490$5,000
May 27, 08:13 PMWill Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?SELL NO0.790$1,471— (SELL)
May 27, 08:13 PMWill Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27?SELL NO0.950$2,935— (SELL)
May 27, 08:12 PMWill Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?BUY NO0.574$5,000
May 27, 08:12 PMWill Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27?BUY NO0.840$7,574Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

43 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Other4$54.4K+$15.3K
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?Other6$47.6K+$10.6K
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?Other2$34.0K+$34.0K
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Other1$30.0K+$30.0K
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Other2$21.9K+$18.1K
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw?Tech7$16.0K+$2,335
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?Other4$13.7K$-224
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?Other2$13.7K+$308
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27?Other2$10.5K+$4,639
Will England win on 2026-06-06?Other3$9,807+$5,516
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06?Other2$9,797+$202
Will United States win on 2026-05-31?Other5$9,456+$40
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06?Other3$8,935+$4,414
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?Tech2$8,606+$5,394
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other2$7,715+$2,285
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?Other1$7,596$-7,596
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06?Other4$7,588$-184
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31?Other4$7,533+$4,117
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreOther2$6,997+$3,001
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw?Other2$6,697+$2,935
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Other2$6,653$-2,529
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02?Other2$6,536+$1,445
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?Other2$6,471+$3,528
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?Other3$6,119+$3,879
Will England win on 2026-06-10?Other4$5,722+$535
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06?Other2$5,447+$1,512
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other1$5,000+$5,000
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06?Other1$4,999+$4,999
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw?Other3$4,887$-1,273
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?Tech2$4,641$-533

Showing top 30 by volume.