yen4u

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf0d5…c665 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf0d5eb1cbe7350f1f896ade6c172e6700414c665·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

181

lifetime

PnL per $

-29%

historical realized

Win rate

64.6%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$582.8K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 181 resolved trades · -29% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$680.6K

avg $3,403 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$551.7K / $128.8K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 06:25 PM	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.150	$2,972	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 06:24 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	SELL YES	0.993	$2,979	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 06:13 PM	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.144	$2,859	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 06:13 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	SELL YES	0.992	$3,472	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 05:37 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	SELL YES	0.991	$3,003	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 10:49 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY YES	0.193	$1,789	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 10:45 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	SELL YES	0.994	$1,988	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 12:15 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.993	$14.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:14 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.991	$8,330	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:13 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.977	$3,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:12 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,761	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:12 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.970	$3,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:10 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.960	$3,422	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:38 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.958	$1,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:38 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.958	$1,916	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:37 PM	Trump out as President before 2027?	SELL NO	0.920	$4,600	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 04:18 AM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:04 AM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,013	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:22 AM	Will Trump say "Interfere" or "Interference" during Speech to the Nation?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,130	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 12:10 AM	Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be less than 5 minutes long?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,924	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:38 PM	Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,071	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 03:21 PM	Trump out as President before 2027?	SELL NO	0.920	$1,840	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 03:01 PM	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15?	BUY YES	0.978	$1,087	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:33 AM	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.998	$5,755	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:48 AM	Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?	BUY NO	0.997	$3,667	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:43 AM	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,009	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:29 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,101	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:56 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$4,154	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:55 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:35 PM	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,019	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:03 AM	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,221	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:03 AM	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,225	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:06 AM	Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.961	$1,666	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 06:22 PM	Will LeBron James buy the Seattle Seahawks?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,311	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 06:21 PM	Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,512	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:57 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,562	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:18 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.968	$2,376	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:07 PM	LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,693	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:50 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:47 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.880	$6,844	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:33 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.910	$3,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:37 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:34 AM	Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 09:53 PM	Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,471	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 03:17 PM	Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,491	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	SELL NO	0.380	$2,219	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 07:33 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:31 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.701	$1,165	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 04:54 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.860	$4,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:31 PM	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:18 AM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.610	$2,795	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:07 AM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL YES	0.310	$1,509	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 11:48 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.210	$1,181	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 6, 09:44 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.850	$3,481	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:44 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.850	$1,902	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:42 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.850	$7,486	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:17 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.814	$2,058	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 03:31 PM	Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,352	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:04 AM	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,836	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:03 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:57 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 12:04 AM	England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?	BUY YES	0.999	$6,010	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 04:34 PM	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	BUY NO	0.500	$1,372	—
Jul 5, 06:28 AM	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,033	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 06:23 AM	Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in July 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,607	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 09:27 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.328	$5,317	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 09:09 PM	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	BUY NO	0.962	$2,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 07:36 PM	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 07:34 PM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 05:40 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 1, 2026?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:32 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 1, 2026?	BUY YES	0.975	$1,303	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:39 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:38 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.968	$2,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:38 PM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,996	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 12:32 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.292	$6,876	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 3, 12:31 PM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$6,993	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 08:12 AM	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	BUY NO	0.955	$1,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:22 AM	Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,057	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:31 PM	Will Claude be restored for international customers by December 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,288	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:06 PM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,031	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 09:42 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 09:07 AM	US bank failure by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:57 AM	Trump out as President before 2027?	BUY NO	0.920	$9,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:56 AM	Netanyahu out by July 31?	BUY NO	0.979	$5,351	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:49 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:45 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.795	$3,561	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:42 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY NO	0.185	$8,045	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 08:40 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.875	$2,594	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:43 AM	Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,892	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:42 AM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,468	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:39 AM	Will Amazon acquire TikTok?	BUY NO	0.999	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:38 AM	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	BUY NO	0.999	$14.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:37 AM	Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	BUY NO	0.999	$13.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:44 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,077	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 06:30 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.695	$2,259	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 04:52 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.380	$1,373	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 04:51 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.642	$1,789	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 04:08 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	SELL NO	0.917	$2,879	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 04:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.995	$3,277	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 03:12 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.995	$1,990	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 03:03 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.948	$1,826	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 11:05 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.875	$1,930	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:20 AM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,958	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:04 AM	0xd27337fc	BUY NO	0.999	$1,649	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 04:21 PM	No one announced as next James Bond?	BUY NO	0.094	$3,045	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 04:21 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$3,719	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 04:07 PM	No one announced as next James Bond?	BUY NO	0.079	$2,133	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 04:06 PM	0xff78bad3	SELL YES	0.998	$2,495	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:45 AM	Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	BUY NO	0.100	$5,258	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 06:44 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL NO	0.992	$1,984	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:44 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL NO	0.993	$3,279	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:35 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL NO	0.993	$1,986	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:23 AM	Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	BUY NO	0.200	$3,042	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 06:20 AM	Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	BUY NO	0.200	$1,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 06:19 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL NO	0.993	$4,965	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 02:14 PM	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.920	$3,266	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 02:42 AM	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,034	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 01:47 AM	Will Sinda's market cap be between $1.6B and $2B at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 06:10 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,368	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:06 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,566	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:00 AM	0xe9e8784d	BUY YES	0.999	$2,688	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:56 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$2,991	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 12:50 AM	0xe9e8784d	BUY YES	0.999	$1,686	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:45 AM	0x9f741b85	BUY YES	0.995	$1,103	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 10:11 PM	Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,829	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 07:20 PM	Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.993	$2,318	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:53 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,551	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:17 PM	0x872f8663	BUY YES	0.997	$2,759	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 12:54 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,035	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 02:42 AM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,500	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 02:33 AM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,500	— (SELL)
Jun 22, 04:11 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.992	$2,250	— (SELL)
Jun 22, 04:02 AM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,130	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:15 PM	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,510	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:13 PM	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,743	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 02:07 PM	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:33 PM	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,889	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:33 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY YES	0.993	$1,905	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:11 AM	Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:09 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.998	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:05 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.824	$2,709	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:43 AM	0xfcc93de8	BUY YES	0.999	$7,545	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:41 AM	0xfcc93de8	BUY YES	0.999	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:00 AM	0xc18b1b9c	BUY YES	0.999	$7,786	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:37 PM	0xc18b1b9c	BUY YES	0.998	$3,261	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:21 PM	0xc18b1b9c	BUY YES	0.997	$4,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:26 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,006	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 08:13 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:41 PM	Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,805	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:26 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,123	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:25 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:25 PM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,018	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:18 PM	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,163	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:57 PM	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:24 PM	0x876047c0	BUY YES	0.138	$1,105	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 02:41 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,750	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:43 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,497	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 06:50 AM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 06:40 AM	Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 06:11 AM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,798	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 06:11 AM	Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 06:09 AM	0x35c73eb4	SELL NO	0.774	$2,680	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:04 AM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$6,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:55 AM	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:42 AM	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:16 AM	Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:05 AM	0x36ffcc6d	BUY YES	0.999	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:14 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	SELL NO	0.988	$1,482	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:52 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.951	$1,031	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:37 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.954	$1,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:36 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	SELL YES	0.982	$1,977	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:36 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.948	$2,036	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:35 PM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.928	$2,042	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 10:18 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.958	$1,918	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:16 PM	0x36ffcc6d	SELL YES	0.997	$2,496	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 10:15 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:05 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.939	$1,543	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:04 PM	0x88c7ec61	SELL NO	0.998	$1,898	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 09:37 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.934	$1,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:59 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.889	$1,779	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:58 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.999	$5,116	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 05:58 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.878	$4,874	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:58 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 05:46 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,899	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 03:17 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.966	$7,782	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 07:24 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,022	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:37 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	BUY NO	0.998	$13.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:48 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.850	$8,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:07 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,028	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:06 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,028	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 10:06 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:04 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,514	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:01 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:11 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 12?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,308	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:10 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,547	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:45 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,825	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:35 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$8,876	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:03 AM	0x88c7ec61	BUY NO	0.999	$5,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:44 AM	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$15.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

95 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	12	$48.1K	+$12.9K
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	10	$46.4K	+$23.6K
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	Politics	13	$28.8K	+$6,202
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	5	$23.9K	+$23.9K
0xfcc93de8	—	2	$20.4K	+$20.4K
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Other	5	$19.5K	$-6,488
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	Other	3	$17.4K	+$14.4K
0xc18b1b9c	—	3	$16.0K	+$16.0K
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	3	$15.6K	+$2,760
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Tech	1	$15.4K	+$15.4K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Tech	4	$15.0K	$-15,038
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Other	2	$15.0K	+$15.0K
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Tech	1	$14.2K	+$14.2K
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	Other	1	$13.9K	+$13.9K
Will Amazon acquire TikTok?	Tech	1	$13.5K	+$13.5K
0x36ffcc6d	—	2	$13.5K	+$8,479
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Other	5	$13.3K	$-13,290
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Politics	6	$12.6K	+$12.6K
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	Tech	5	$12.6K	+$12.6K
0x876047c0	—	2	$11.1K	+$11.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Tech	2	$10.3K	+$5,826
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Tech	1	$9,990	+$9,990
0x2cd24d17	—	2	$9,824	+$5,740
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	Other	5	$9,604	+$9,604
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	Politics	3	$9,300	+$9,300
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Other	3	$9,269	+$9,269
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	3	$8,960	$-8,960
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Other	3	$7,610	+$7,610
0x88c7ec61	—	2	$7,338	+$3,542
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	3	$7,167	$-3,367

Showing top 30 by volume.