elmcap2

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xed10…d2e5 with our methodology badges per row.

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

247

lifetime

PnL per $

-6%

historical realized

Win rate

93.3%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$10.74M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 247 resolved trades · -6% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

100

Volume (90d)

$6.19M

avg $30.9K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$5.46M / $728.6K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 21, 12:20 AM	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:18 AM	Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$6,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:17 AM	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$3,256	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:15 AM	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,912	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:10 AM	Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$3,226	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:18 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,022	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:17 PM	Another Canada election called by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:17 PM	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,227	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:17 PM	Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:16 PM	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:16 PM	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:16 PM	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,351	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:15 PM	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,986	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:11 PM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,158	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:10 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:09 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,787	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:08 PM	Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$9,969	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:06 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,504	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:05 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,182	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:59 PM	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,192	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:21 PM	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$3,155	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:19 PM	Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,445	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:15 PM	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,908	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:16 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.987	$7,014	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:13 PM	Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$25.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 11:37 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.993	$50.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:30 PM	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	SELL NO	0.921	$1,222	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 06:29 PM	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,294	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:12 PM	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:18 PM	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$33.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:16 PM	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,928	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:10 PM	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:56 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	BUY NO	0.999	$1.33M	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:56 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	BUY NO	0.999	$499.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 01:01 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.990	$3,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:22 PM	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,133	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:21 PM	Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:39 PM	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,085	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:37 PM	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	BUY YES	0.930	$19.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:35 PM	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,114	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:28 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$2,645	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:28 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$4,831	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:57 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$5,310	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:51 AM	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	BUY YES	0.920	$7,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:42 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:35 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:46 PM	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$43.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 10:42 PM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:40 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,357	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:34 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,502	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:30 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,608	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:26 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$6,514	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:25 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:03 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.989	$32.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:02 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.988	$31.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:01 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:10 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$6,435	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:10 PM	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 09:04 PM	Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,679	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:45 PM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY NO	0.959	$6,811	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:41 PM	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,621	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:40 PM	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:40 PM	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,485	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:53 PM	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,060	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:52 PM	Chirayu Rana divorced?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,613	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:49 PM	Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$12.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 05:16 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.980	$2,152	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 05:05 PM	0x4c84dd6e	BUY NO	0.990	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:50 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.998	$242.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 03:53 AM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$4,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 09:46 PM	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,645	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:46 PM	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.986	$7,926	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:45 PM	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	SELL NO	0.991	$3,748	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:45 PM	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.989	$4,724	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:43 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	SELL NO	0.986	$17.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:43 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL NO	0.981	$8,043	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 12:19 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$276.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:07 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$143.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:06 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$272.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:06 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$204.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:15 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$296.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:20 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$239.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:32 PM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	SELL NO	0.981	$6,868	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:06 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$65.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:27 AM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,356	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:25 AM	Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$24.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:21 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:52 PM	US bank failure by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:17 PM	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:11 PM	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,469	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:48 AM	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:46 AM	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,921	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:45 AM	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:45 AM	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:35 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$6,749	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:34 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,402	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:05 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$112.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:51 AM	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,498	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:48 AM	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$23.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:34 AM	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:33 AM	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$59.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:34 PM	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$89.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:32 PM	Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,826	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:32 PM	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,590	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:46 PM	Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,288	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:44 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,561	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:44 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$70.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:43 PM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	BUY NO	0.999	$15.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:42 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$117.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:41 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$15.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:34 PM	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:54 AM	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,076	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:52 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:34 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$7,349	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:28 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:15 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,707	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:25 PM	0x924dd7c2	BUY NO	0.999	$29.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:00 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,432	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:00 PM	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,723	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 11:57 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$5,822	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 11:50 AM	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 11:47 AM	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$3,195	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:13 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.993	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:26 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$15.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 10:17 PM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.971	$2,427	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:19 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.956	$4,834	— (SELL)
May 26, 06:38 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:40 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.966	$14.4K	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:37 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.984	$64.7K	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:53 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.994	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:22 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.988	$23.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:21 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.986	$18.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:13 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.993	$4,805	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:11 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:10 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.993	$19.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:06 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.991	$14.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:06 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.989	$14.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:52 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.978	$4,881	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:52 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.974	$15.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:52 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,239	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:10 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:08 PM	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$3,506	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 04:53 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 04:52 PM	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,153	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:47 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.987	$6,694	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:43 PM	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	BUY NO	0.994	$7,346	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:19 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.990	$7,317	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:19 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.989	$8,505	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:17 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$7,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:09 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.983	$4,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:08 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.982	$8,545	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:05 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.980	$14.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:49 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$5,116	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:47 PM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,013	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:44 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.973	$1,926	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:36 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$5,757	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:31 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.971	$2,833	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:23 AM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:44 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$2,631	— (SELL)
May 22, 11:44 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$60.3K	— (SELL)
May 22, 11:44 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$5,668	— (SELL)
May 22, 04:58 PM	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:56 PM	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$8,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:50 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$8,177	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:44 PM	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,671	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:41 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$2,054	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:17 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.994	$3,768	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:00 PM	Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	BUY NO	0.828	$1,301	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:37 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$29.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:36 PM	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$25.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:40 PM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.999	$128.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:40 PM	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.999	$166.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:39 PM	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	BUY NO	0.994	$87.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:37 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$49.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:47 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:45 PM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,705	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:03 PM	Trump kiss by May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$204.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:01 AM	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	BUY NO	0.992	$5,877	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:59 AM	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$16.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:55 AM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$38.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:46 AM	Netanyahu out by May 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,059	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:29 AM	0x924dd7c2	BUY NO	0.995	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:50 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 04:37 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,769	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 04:36 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$5,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:20 AM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.994	$4,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:10 AM	Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:43 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:13 PM	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:52 PM	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.999	$13.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:56 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:54 PM	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	BUY YES	0.926	$2,804	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:34 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,806	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:32 PM	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$9,297	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:53 AM	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15?	BUY NO	0.999	$11.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:15 AM	Trump out as President by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$52.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 03:20 PM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,233	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

100 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Other	2	$1.82M	+$1.82M
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	6	$1.43M	+$954.4K
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Other	1	$242.5K	$-242,546
Trump kiss by May 31?	Politics	1	$204.0K	+$204.0K
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Politics	1	$166.6K	+$166.6K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	6	$153.1K	+$15.9K
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Politics	3	$135.2K	+$135.2K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	6	$128.6K	$-854
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Other	2	$121.3K	+$121.3K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Tech	2	$119.3K	+$119.3K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	12	$115.7K	+$115.7K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	3	$114.9K	+$114.9K
Trump out as President by June 30?	Politics	7	$97.7K	+$63.6K
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Politics	2	$93.3K	+$93.3K
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Finance	1	$89.8K	+$89.8K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	Other	3	$78.2K	+$78.2K
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Other	1	$65.1K	+$65.1K
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Finance	2	$62.8K	+$62.8K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Tech	9	$54.3K	+$54.3K
Trump out as President by May 31?	Politics	1	$52.7K	+$52.7K
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Tech	1	$50.1K	+$50.1K
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Other	2	$45.2K	$-40,815
0x924dd7c2	—	2	$43.2K	+$43.2K
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	Finance	2	$38.0K	+$38.0K
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	5	$37.8K	$-720
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Tech	8	$35.9K	+$35.9K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Other	5	$31.8K	+$15.7K
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Tech	2	$28.0K	+$28.0K
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	2	$27.1K	+$27.1K
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Other	2	$26.0K	+$26.0K

Showing top 30 by volume.