elmcap2

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xed10…d2e5 with our methodology badges per row.

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

251

lifetime

PnL per $

-6%

historical realized

Win rate

93.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$7.83M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 251 resolved trades · -6% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

112

Volume (90d)

$7.22M

avg $36.1K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$7.02M / $195.5K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 04:05 PM	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	SELL NO	0.907	$1,519	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 03:59 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	SELL NO	0.361	$3,250	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:51 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.949	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:34 PM	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.997	$9,971	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:45 PM	Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:41 PM	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	BUY NO	0.500	$5,000	—
Jul 19, 03:18 AM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$3,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:38 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.999	$272.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 12:21 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.992	$1,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:26 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,238	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:56 AM	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	BUY YES	0.999	$173.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:52 AM	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,204	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 05:27 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$5,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 05:26 AM	Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 05:23 AM	Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 01:45 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	BUY NO	0.992	$3,428	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:12 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	SELL NO	0.930	$2,325	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 05:11 AM	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.798	$2,324	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 02:20 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.997	$49.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 05:59 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.997	$39.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 05:51 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.780	$2,321	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 04:54 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 04:52 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.995	$4,753	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 03:05 AM	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	BUY YES	0.878	$2,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:19 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	BUY NO	0.857	$2,446	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:52 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$5,522	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:51 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.750	$2,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:50 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 11:13 PM	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	SELL NO	0.930	$3,296	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 03:44 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$13.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 06:55 AM	UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026?	BUY YES	0.975	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 06:45 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.949	$3,156	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 06:44 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 04:29 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$6,737	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:01 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	BUY NO	0.999	$814.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:22 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	BUY NO	0.998	$35.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:47 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	SELL NO	0.988	$2,470	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 11:46 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.999	$2.93M	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:27 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	BUY NO	0.998	$283.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:19 PM	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	BUY NO	0.943	$6,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:18 PM	Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?	BUY NO	0.939	$1,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:16 PM	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	BUY NO	0.932	$1,421	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:11 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,529	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 01:47 PM	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	BUY YES	0.496	$1,995	—
Jul 5, 01:43 PM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.990	$3,656	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 09:35 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$95.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 08:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$569.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:30 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,806	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:28 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.838	$8,697	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:25 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.967	$6,404	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:21 AM	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.930	$43.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 11:38 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,946	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:23 AM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	BUY NO	0.975	$2,973	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:04 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$4,474	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:14 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.966	$37.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:13 PM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY YES	0.992	$1,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:12 PM	New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?	BUY NO	0.987	$7,151	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:49 PM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:32 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.986	$2,488	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:23 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,859	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:09 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,578	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:08 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$4,707	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.996	$50.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:53 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.968	$2,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:32 AM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$25.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:25 PM	Trump out as President before 2027?	BUY NO	0.910	$96.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 06:19 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$26.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 06:11 AM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,344	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 05:27 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 03:22 PM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,410	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 03:05 PM	Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.861	$1,879	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 07:50 AM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,129	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:40 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.954	$4,698	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:38 PM	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$25.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:37 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$112.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:36 PM	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$39.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:35 PM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$7,604	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 04:06 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,828	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 04:05 PM	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 03:54 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.952	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 03:52 PM	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,453	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 03:45 PM	Will Tim Walz resign by July 31?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,505	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:05 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:05 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$24.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:05 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$38.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:05 AM	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:05 AM	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,974	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:04 AM	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,310	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:04 AM	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,281	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:03 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$37.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:03 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$65.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:02 AM	Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,818	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:01 AM	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$17.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:01 AM	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,055	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 08:52 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,463	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 08:51 AM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,612	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 08:49 AM	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,931	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:21 PM	Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?	BUY NO	0.969	$1,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:17 PM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,027	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:16 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$79.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:16 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$9,971	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:12 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$6,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:11 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$12.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	BUY YES	0.998	$7,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:08 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$3,059	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:07 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:02 PM	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:56 PM	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:55 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$12.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:41 AM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:17 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:16 AM	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$4,076	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:11 AM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY NO	0.992	$2,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:07 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$95.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:06 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$83.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:06 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,087	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:06 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:42 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$14.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:39 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?	BUY NO	0.968	$4,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:55 PM	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$5,546	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:55 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$37.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:56 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$52.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 12:22 AM	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	BUY YES	0.989	$14.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 12:18 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$157.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 11:24 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,041	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 09:29 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$5,341	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 09:22 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,749	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:21 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,976	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:20 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,172	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:15 PM	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,469	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:14 PM	Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:14 PM	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$9,857	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:12 PM	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:11 PM	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:11 PM	Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,464	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:10 PM	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,652	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:10 PM	Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,830	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:08 PM	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$13.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:07 PM	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:05 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$7,715	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:04 PM	Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,798	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:04 PM	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,296	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:03 PM	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:03 PM	Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:03 PM	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,630	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:02 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,088	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:02 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:01 PM	Bill Gates charged by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:59 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:53 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL NO	0.900	$22.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 08:27 PM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY YES	0.130	$2,199	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 08:22 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$25.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 08:18 PM	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,156	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 08:14 PM	Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:27 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$20.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:23 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$6,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:12 AM	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	BUY NO	0.920	$22.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:09 AM	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:02 AM	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:56 AM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,234	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:51 AM	Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.983	$3,299	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:45 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$38.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:37 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$5,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:24 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,731	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:52 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,502	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:51 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:32 PM	Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:30 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$9,503	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:29 PM	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,293	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:28 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,058	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:26 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:21 PM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:19 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$3,403	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 01:15 PM	Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$3,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:30 PM	Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.948	$2,162	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:22 PM	Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:20 PM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.984	$6,425	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:19 PM	Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,447	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:16 PM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$4,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:19 PM	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:16 PM	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:06 PM	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$6,554	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:04 PM	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:56 PM	Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:55 PM	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,947	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:52 PM	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	BUY NO	0.845	$1,736	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:47 PM	Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,196	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:37 PM	Amouranth divorced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,108	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:36 PM	Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:40 AM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:37 AM	Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,958	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:37 AM	Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:37 AM	Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,689	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:36 AM	Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,313	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:35 AM	Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30	BUY NO	0.996	$1,279	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:33 AM	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,662	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:33 AM	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,044	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:32 AM	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,260	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:28 AM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.995	$4,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:20 AM	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,367	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

112 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	1	$2.93M	+$2.93M
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	Other	2	$849.4K	+$849.4K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	2	$620.5K	+$620.5K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Tech	4	$367.2K	+$367.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	Tech	1	$283.8K	+$283.8K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Other	7	$257.8K	$-57,806
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Other	5	$244.4K	+$244.4K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Tech	3	$216.1K	+$216.1K
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Other	2	$174.4K	+$174.4K
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Other	9	$155.5K	+$155.5K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	5	$145.2K	+$145.2K
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	1	$96.6K	+$96.6K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Tech	3	$70.9K	+$70.9K
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Other	3	$54.4K	+$54.4K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Other	2	$51.4K	+$51.4K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Other	2	$45.6K	+$45.6K
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Other	2	$44.8K	+$41.7K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	3	$41.4K	+$41.4K
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?	Politics	4	$29.7K	+$29.7K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Other	3	$29.2K	+$29.2K
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Other	2	$25.3K	+$18.7K
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Politics	3	$23.6K	+$23.6K
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Tech	2	$22.7K	+$22.7K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Other	1	$22.5K	$-22,500
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	Politics	6	$21.5K	+$21.5K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	Other	5	$19.9K	+$19.9K
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Other	3	$16.1K	+$16.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	2	$14.7K	+$14.7K
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	Tech	2	$14.5K	+$14.5K
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Other	1	$14.1K	+$14.1K

Showing top 30 by volume.