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8973YEDGJ

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xeb6f…25f0 with our methodology badges per row.

0xeb6f0a13ea8c5a7a0514c25495adbe815c1025f0·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
75
lifetime
PnL per $
-60%
historical realized
Win rate
32.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$643.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 75 resolved trades · -60% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
134
Distinct markets
35
Volume (90d)
$845.3K
avg $6,308 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$360.6K / $484.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 134 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 05:53 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.077$1,219— (SELL)
Jul 20, 05:34 PMWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY NO0.682$1,277Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:19 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.067$1,171— (SELL)
Jul 20, 05:05 PMWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY YES0.342$1,058Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 04:58 PMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?SELL YES0.460$3,460— (SELL)
Jul 20, 03:49 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.540$1,263
Jul 20, 03:37 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.065$1,269Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 03:32 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.059$1,077Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 02:40 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.068$1,985— (SELL)
Jul 20, 12:41 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.530$4,684
Jul 20, 12:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.066$4,323Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 08:21 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.063$1,337— (SELL)
Jul 19, 10:25 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.360$4,824Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 12:22 PMWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.918$2,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:18 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.952$8,152— (SELL)
Jul 17, 05:13 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.954$10.5K— (SELL)
Jul 17, 05:12 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.520$9,733
Jul 16, 06:04 PMFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?SELL NO0.655$3,385— (SELL)
Jul 16, 05:25 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.956$46.0K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 02:40 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.960$11.2K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 01:41 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.300$4,663Cheap band — no rep
Jul 16, 01:39 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.300$3,109Cheap band — no rep
Jul 16, 12:51 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.962$3,346— (SELL)
Jul 16, 12:37 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.961$47.0K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 11:15 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.218$1,766— (SELL)
Jul 15, 12:53 PMFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY NO0.606$3,092Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 12:43 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.490$2,350
Jul 15, 12:36 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.480$3,600
Jul 15, 12:31 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$9,428Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 05:50 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$36.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:49 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.930$35.5K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 02:06 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.480$1,146
Jul 14, 01:53 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.531$3,268— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:42 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$9,141Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:42 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$5,485Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:40 PMWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY NO0.200$1,234Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 12:40 PMWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?BUY YES0.150$1,648Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 12:32 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.900$7,774Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:30 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.574$13.3K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:05 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.650$5,846— (SELL)
Jul 14, 11:39 AMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?BUY YES0.310$2,881Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 11:27 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.620$5,303Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:27 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.620$7,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:17 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.620$7,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:16 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.620$7,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:50 AMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.710$1,476— (SELL)
Jul 14, 01:59 AMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.710$1,030— (SELL)
Jul 13, 05:11 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.750$3,532— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:41 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.664$21.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:41 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.610$14.1K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:35 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.447$4,134
Jul 13, 04:33 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.610$2,386Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:32 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.600$7,224
Jul 13, 12:13 AMFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY YES0.450$1,126
Jul 12, 10:47 PMWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?SELL NO0.786$7,955— (SELL)
Jul 12, 10:41 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.790$20.4K— (SELL)
Jul 12, 02:39 PMWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY NO0.784$7,938Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 02:49 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.784$6,250— (SELL)
Jul 10, 07:17 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.233$1,180Cheap band — no rep
Jul 10, 04:46 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL NO0.480$3,714— (SELL)
Jul 10, 04:16 PMWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY YES0.159$1,606Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 04:05 PMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?SELL YES0.850$2,317— (SELL)
Jul 10, 04:04 PMWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?SELL NO0.852$6,924— (SELL)
Jul 10, 09:56 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.855$12.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:35 PMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY YES0.830$4,397Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:08 PMWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY NO0.818$9,153Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 01:19 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$5,220Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:59 AMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.430$1,477
Jul 9, 09:57 AMFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?SELL YES0.480$5,101— (SELL)
Jul 9, 09:49 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.810$2,535Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 11:51 PMFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?SELL YES0.502$4,783— (SELL)
Jul 8, 04:44 PMFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?SELL YES0.530$1,643— (SELL)
Jul 8, 03:33 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.220$1,164Cheap band — no rep
Jul 8, 03:10 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.770$4,443— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:06 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.780$3,431— (SELL)
Jul 8, 01:25 PMFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?BUY YES0.427$12.2K
Jul 8, 12:53 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.780$1,577Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:19 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.740$2,035Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:35 AMWill United States win on 2026-07-06?BUY NO0.860$2,878Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:33 AMWill United States win on 2026-07-06?SELL NO0.830$2,084— (SELL)
Jul 7, 12:18 AMWill United States win on 2026-07-06?BUY NO0.850$2,135Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 10:46 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.860$1,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 05:21 PMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY NO0.120$2,880Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 05:02 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.230$1,076Cheap band — no rep
Jul 6, 11:18 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.890$26.7K— (SELL)
Jul 4, 01:14 PMWill Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.960$1,442Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:28 PMWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY NO0.222$2,273Cheap band — no rep
Jul 2, 01:28 PMWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY NO0.223$2,398Cheap band — no rep
Jul 2, 01:28 PMWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL YES0.779$1,233— (SELL)
Jul 2, 12:38 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.300$1,506— (SELL)
Jul 2, 12:37 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.639$3,256Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:33 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.470$1,271
Jul 2, 12:32 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.460$3,824
Jul 1, 01:38 AMWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY YES0.226$1,048Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 01:29 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.800$2,000— (SELL)
Jun 29, 01:11 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.810$16.2K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 12:22 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$8,274Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 11:16 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.810$56.3K— (SELL)
Jun 28, 11:06 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.810$24.3K— (SELL)
Jun 28, 11:03 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.833$9,650— (SELL)
Jun 28, 10:57 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.834$4,172— (SELL)
Jun 28, 10:41 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.836$2,509— (SELL)
Jun 28, 03:57 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$1,655Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 03:57 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$9,102Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 03:51 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$4,137Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 03:17 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$2,234Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:03 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.820$2,356Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 07:17 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.295$1,392Cheap band — no rep
Jun 26, 04:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.810$20.3K— (SELL)
Jun 25, 12:43 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.760$1,385Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 12:42 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.550$1,836— (SELL)
Jun 25, 12:41 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.760$6,027Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:06 PMFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?BUY NO0.460$2,678
Jun 24, 01:52 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.750$5,384Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 01:47 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.750$3,624Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:56 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.762$1,253— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:50 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL YES0.883$2,137— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:50 PMNetanyahu out by June 30?SELL NO0.981$2,942— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:50 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?SELL YES0.990$6,068— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:50 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.983$9,825— (SELL)
Jun 4, 04:15 AMUS recession by end of 2026?BUY NO0.800$1,181Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:36 AMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.997$7,478Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:04 AMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.830$1,859Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:43 AMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.997$1,601— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:26 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.984$1,476Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:46 PMNetanyahu out by June 30?BUY NO0.964$2,603Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:01 AM0x781a06aaBUY NO0.973$6,890Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 10:37 PMWill Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?BUY NO0.996$1,182Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:14 PMWill Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?SELL YES0.970$6,706— (SELL)
May 21, 10:33 AM0xc4c3dbccBUY YES0.750$1,532Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:52 AM0x781a06aaBUY NO0.950$1,333Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:52 AM0x99a0fdc1BUY YES0.950$1,142Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:50 PM0x99a0fdc1BUY YES0.940$5,481Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:56 AM0x652002aaBUY NO0.425$2,299

Markets active in

35 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance43$509.5K$-196,489
Fed rate hike in 2026?Finance20$94.5K+$26.5K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance10$40.9K$-11,788
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Finance5$33.6K+$3,817
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Finance5$26.4K+$3,308
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance7$20.7K+$17.7K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other1$9,825$-9,825
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Finance3$9,594+$4,959
0x781a06aa2$8,223+$8,223
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Finance3$7,603+$833
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto1$7,478+$7,478
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Finance4$7,138+$4,673
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?Other3$7,097+$2,929
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?Sports1$6,706$-6,706
0x99a0fdc12$6,623+$6,623
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Finance2$6,341$-579
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Politics1$6,068$-6,068
Netanyahu out by June 30?Other2$5,545$-339
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics2$3,996$-278
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Other2$3,330+$3,330
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance1$3,256+$3,256
0x652002aa1$2,299+$2,299
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,295+$2,295
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,766$-1,766
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Finance1$1,648+$1,648
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics1$1,601$-1,601
0xc4c3dbcc1$1,532+$1,532
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,476+$1,476
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?Other1$1,442+$1,442
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics1$1,277+$1,277

Showing top 30 by volume.