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nottop6896

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xe872…819a with our methodology badges per row.

0xe8725f4bd4de73c888dda35c4850f702c322819a·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
86
lifetime
PnL per $
+18%
historical realized
Win rate
82.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$939.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
102
Distinct markets
61
Volume (90d)
$1.09M
avg $10.7K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.08M / $5,465
net direction

Recent trades

last 102 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 08:23 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.310$1,200Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 08:13 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.300$3,266Conviction tier
Jul 19, 07:44 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.399$2,554Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 06:02 PMExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?BUY NO0.850$25.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:53 PMEngland to win the second half?BUY NO0.710$2,673Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:53 PMEngland to win the second half?BUY NO0.710$2,730Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:53 PMEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.270$3,900Conviction tier
Jul 12, 12:40 AMWill Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?BUY NO0.710$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:37 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?BUY YES0.570$9,973
Jul 12, 12:25 AMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.460$6,547
Jul 12, 12:25 AMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.460$6,547
Jul 11, 09:27 PMExact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?BUY NO0.870$14.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:06 PMExact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?BUY NO0.870$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 02:25 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.824$2,088Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:08 PMFrance vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.500$8,246
Jul 9, 07:07 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.800$80.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:41 PMExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?BUY NO0.840$47.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:03 PMExact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Egypt?BUY NO0.731$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:05 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.819$50.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 11:45 PMExact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?BUY NO0.860$27.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:24 AMWill Colombia win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.580$15.2K
Jul 6, 12:36 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-07-05?BUY NO0.690$13.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 12:28 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-07-05?BUY NO0.690$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 03:15 AMWill Colombia win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.570$10,000
Jul 4, 08:57 PMParaguay vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.390$1,558Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 08:57 PMParaguay vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.390$4,827Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 01:12 PMWill Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY NO0.720$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:33 AMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?BUY YES0.520$13.0K
Jul 3, 09:45 PMArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.320$1,513Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 09:45 PMArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.320$3,522Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 02:28 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-07-05?BUY NO0.694$32.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 02:12 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-07-05?BUY NO0.690$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 11:03 PMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.430$5,653
Jul 2, 09:03 PMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.430$5,716
Jul 2, 08:20 PMExact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?BUY NO0.720$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:51 AMUnited States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.610$3,671Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 04:50 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?BUY NO0.710$25.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 02:09 PMCôte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.590$11.8K
Jun 30, 03:09 AMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.250$7,200Conviction tier
Jun 29, 10:51 PMWill Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY NO0.690$34.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:48 PMWill Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?BUY NO0.820$2,013Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:20 PMGermany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.480$4,735
Jun 29, 07:16 PMExact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay?BUY NO0.890$2,560Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:11 PMExact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay?BUY NO0.880$16.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 05:49 PMExact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.730$1,034Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 05:05 PMBrazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.470$4,600
Jun 29, 05:01 PMBrazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.491$5,000
Jun 29, 11:56 AMExact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.870$27.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:31 AMExact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.870$12.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:26 AMExact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.870$17.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:08 AMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY YES0.420$9,000
Jun 28, 02:57 AMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.240$20.0KConviction tier
Jun 28, 02:26 AMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.750$1,808Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 02:26 AMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.750$1,808Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:25 PMWill England win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.180$2,570Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:11 PMWill Croatia win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.450$7,289
Jun 27, 07:33 AMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.420$6,637
Jun 27, 03:12 AMWill Colombia win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.760$54.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 02:48 AMExact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?BUY NO0.850$7,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 02:46 AMExact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?BUY NO0.840$2,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 02:46 AMExact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?BUY NO0.840$5,630Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 11:49 PMWill Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY NO0.730$12.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 11:47 PMWill Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY NO0.730$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:59 AMWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.610$25.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:14 AMWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.610$18.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:53 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.490$22.6K
Jun 23, 07:33 PMExact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?BUY NO0.977$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 07:29 PMExact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?BUY NO0.977$2,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 07:17 PMExact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?BUY NO0.978$9,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:55 PMExact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?BUY NO0.840$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:52 PMExact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?BUY NO0.840$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:50 PMExact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?BUY NO0.840$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 02:53 PMExact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?BUY NO0.840$1,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:22 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.490$4,800
Jun 23, 04:05 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.490$9,000
Jun 23, 03:03 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.490$16.1K
Jun 23, 02:56 AMExact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria?BUY NO0.890$2,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 02:51 AMExact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria?BUY NO0.930$2,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:56 AMExact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria?BUY NO0.958$3,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:50 AMExact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria?BUY NO0.957$3,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:43 AMExact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria?BUY NO0.956$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 08:45 PMExact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq?BUY NO0.975$11.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 03:53 AMWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.410$3,270
Jun 22, 03:48 AMWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.410$4,575
Jun 21, 06:38 PMIR Iran leading at halftime?BUY NO0.890$7,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:26 PMExact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran?BUY NO0.968$6,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:04 PMExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?SELL NO0.999$5,465— (SELL)
Jun 21, 12:16 PMExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?BUY NO0.940$5,142Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:39 AMWill Senegal win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.700$35.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:39 AMWill Senegal win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.700$6,322Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:59 AMWill Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?BUY NO0.780$1,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:58 AMWill Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?BUY NO0.780$2,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:58 AMWill Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?BUY NO0.780$2,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:19 AMExact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.850$3,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:09 AMExact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.850$1,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 02:55 AMExact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?BUY NO0.850$5,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:54 PMExact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?BUY NO0.930$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:54 PMExact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?BUY NO0.930$8,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:31 PMExact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?BUY NO0.920$19.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:27 PMWill Haiti win on 2026-06-13?BUY NO0.840$9,144Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:15 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY YES0.390$4,000Killed band — neutral expectation
May 18, 06:31 PM0x991da6e5BUY NO0.982$1,916Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

61 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$132.1K+$132.1K
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?Other4$75.5K+$75.5K
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?Other4$57.0K+$57.0K
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?Other1$54.1K+$54.1K
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Other4$52.5K+$52.5K
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?Other1$47.0K+$47.0K
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?Other2$43.0K+$43.0K
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?Other2$42.0K+$42.0K
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?Crypto1$34.5K+$34.5K
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?Other2$28.9K+$28.9K
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?Tech2$28.1K+$28.1K
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?Other1$27.1K+$27.1K
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?Tech1$25.4K+$25.4K
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Other2$25.2K+$25.2K
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?Other1$25.1K+$25.1K
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?Other3$22.9K+$22.9K
Will France win on 2026-06-30?Other1$20.0K+$20.0K
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?Other1$19.0K+$19.0K
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay?Other2$19.0K+$19.0K
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?Other4$16.1K+$16.1K
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?Other3$15.7K+$15.7K
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreOther2$13.1K+$13.1K
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Other1$13.0K+$13.0K
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to ScoreOther1$11.8K+$11.8K
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreOther2$11.4K+$11.4K
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq?Other1$11.0K+$11.0K
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?Tech2$10.6K$-323
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?Other3$10.2K+$10.2K
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Other1$10.0K+$10.0K
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?Other1$10.0K+$10.0K

Showing top 30 by volume.