| Jun 13, 03:31 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $398.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:22 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $92.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.410 | $1,061 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $3,333 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 05:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.358 | $10.6K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 01:24 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $398.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 03:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $2,420 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:37 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $9,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 11:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $4,783 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 07:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $27.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 07:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $28.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 07:45 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $28.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 04:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.060 | $3,191 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $3,245 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 12:22 PM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $9,074 | —— |
| May 24, 02:42 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $4,299 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $2,103 | —— |
| May 23, 11:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $14.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.728 | $6,907 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:29 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.703 | $1,230 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:11 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.577 | $8,516 | —— |
| May 23, 09:09 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.558 | $1,155 | —— |
| May 23, 09:09 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.545 | $1,630 | —— |
| May 23, 01:47 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL YES | 0.987 | $47.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 12:39 AM | Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m? | BUY NO | 0.759 | $1,932 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 12:10 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $3,465 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 08:26 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:26 AM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $36.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:26 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $193.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:19 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $5,705 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $26.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 06:58 AM | Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m? | BUY YES | 0.546 | $5,546 | —— |
| May 21, 03:21 AM | Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m? | BUY NO | 0.706 | $2,045 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 03:04 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $44.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:27 AM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $34.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:27 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:27 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $92.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $5,532 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 12:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $7,862 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 04:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $2,618 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:04 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $73.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 11:28 PM | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $1,410 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:33 PM | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $3,143 | —— |
| May 19, 01:51 AM | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $8,011 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $3,172 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 01:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $3,900 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 08:21 AM | Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m? | BUY NO | 0.763 | $1,295 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 11:51 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $2,488 | —— |
| May 16, 12:47 PM | Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $1,329 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 06:28 AM | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $25.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 12:16 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.280 | $2,291 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $5,495 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 03:26 PM | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,466 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 12:10 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,548 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 12:34 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $580.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 02:28 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.132 | $3,039 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 28, 01:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $11.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 28, 01:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $15.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 21, 08:40 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.523 | $4,237 | —— |
| Apr 21, 08:22 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $4,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 02:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.225 | $2,246 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 02:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.430 | $2,047 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 04:49 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $7,630 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 02:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $7,942 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 12:04 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,133 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 11:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $5,430 | —— |
| Apr 18, 11:17 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $7,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 08:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $19.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 01:46 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $11.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 18, 12:54 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $5,264 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 01:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $6,611 | —— |
| Apr 14, 12:54 PM | 0x9d33df9d | BUY | 0.320 | $2,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 14, 12:49 PM | 0x9d33df9d | BUY | 0.430 | $5,524 | —— |
| Apr 14, 12:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,448 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 14, 12:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,626 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Apr 13, 04:40 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $1,231 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 12:46 AM | 0x68beecc8 | SELL YES | 0.060 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 12:43 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL YES | 0.405 | $6,098 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 12:43 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL YES | 0.431 | $4,214 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 02:42 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $2,980 | —— |
| Apr 10, 02:24 PM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY YES | 0.120 | $3,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 9, 11:07 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.998 | $299.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 06:55 AM | Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $1,092 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 12:13 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.995 | $372.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 12:13 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $870.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 11:34 PM | 0x716933d4 | BUY | 0.410 | $4,313 | —— |
| Apr 8, 04:51 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.526 | $2,965 | —— |
| Apr 8, 04:49 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.515 | $2,761 | —— |
| Apr 8, 12:57 AM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.993 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 11:08 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.839 | $5,652 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:41 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.530 | $3,076 | —— |
| Apr 7, 10:12 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.820 | $1,209 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:07 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.382 | $1,425 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 12:37 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,330 | —— |
| Apr 7, 10:26 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $8,168 | —— |
| Apr 7, 08:49 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $34.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 07:37 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.263 | $7,698 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 02:12 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:31 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.848 | $25.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:01 AM | 0x0842399b | SELL YES | 0.611 | $1,650 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 09:54 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $3,112 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 3, 12:50 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $2,188 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 04:42 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $2,864 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 3, 12:45 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $43.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 12:35 AM | 0xdb6830a6 | BUY NO | 0.680 | $2,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 10:39 AM | 0xdb6830a6 | BUY NO | 0.788 | $1,348 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 04:38 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $128.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 06:37 PM | 0x6f63aad9 | BUY | 0.630 | $2,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 05:34 AM | 0xdb6830a6 | BUY NO | 0.703 | $2,105 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 09:10 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.300 | $4,716 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 08:06 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.290 | $4,454 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Mar 29, 07:51 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.548 | $5,376 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 07:40 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.880 | $3,217 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 07:40 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.884 | $5,608 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 04:22 PM | 0x143a3422 | BUY | 0.390 | $9,750 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 09:34 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $4,953 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 27, 05:17 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.850 | $8,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 05:14 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $2,547 | —— |
| Mar 27, 03:47 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,547 | —— |
| Mar 27, 08:04 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $3,973 | —— |
| Mar 25, 11:48 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.990 | $23.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 06:03 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.749 | $16.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 12:43 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.468 | $3,355 | —— |
| Mar 23, 12:09 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.820 | $9,398 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 12:08 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.475 | $2,948 | —— |
| Mar 23, 11:57 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,185 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 23, 11:42 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.593 | $8,605 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:36 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $3,304 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:19 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.553 | $2,325 | —— |
| Mar 23, 07:13 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.989 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |