| Jul 20, 10:51 AM | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,472 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 09:13 AM | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.537 | $1,179 | —— |
| Jul 20, 07:48 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,971 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 07:46 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.470 | $2,737 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 07:45 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.280 | $5,492 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 01:34 AM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $3,174 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 12:04 AM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $4,388 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 11:01 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $2,803 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:54 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.633 | $1,898 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,049 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 08:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.480 | $4,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 19, 08:00 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,408 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 07:24 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $2,595 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 11:48 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $3,822 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 06:54 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $4,500 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 18, 09:22 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | BUY NO | 0.898 | $3,430 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 06:11 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.269 | $2,957 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 05:07 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,350 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 02:46 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,127 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 17, 09:52 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 09:25 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $2,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 08:01 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $5,537 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 17, 07:59 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $5,400 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 17, 07:27 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $1,150 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 03:11 AM | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 03:07 AM | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? | SELL YES | 0.846 | $2,539 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 02:22 AM | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $1,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 02:17 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.272 | $1,630 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 09:34 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $4,209 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 07:37 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,100 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 15, 05:41 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,397 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 05:40 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,820 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 04:37 AM | US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $5,037 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 11:29 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 03:45 AM | Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $2,346 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 11:18 PM | Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $1,289 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 10:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.060 | $1,075 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 09:09 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $1,152 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 08:53 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL YES | 0.364 | $1,876 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 10:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $1,080 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 10, 09:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,113 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 10, 08:47 PM | Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.637 | $1,275 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 08:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 10, 08:07 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $9,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 07:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $2,297 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 04:14 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $3,374 | —— |
| Jul 8, 02:24 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.367 | $1,894 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 06:20 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY NO | 0.657 | $1,329 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 06:13 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,537 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 7, 06:09 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,116 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 7, 03:33 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 02:18 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,957 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 02:02 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $2,498 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:59 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:58 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.310 | $1,705 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 12:56 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 12:44 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,281 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 12:38 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.420 | $2,469 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 12:37 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $1,000 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 11:48 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,000 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 6, 08:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.400 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 10:58 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.300 | $1,095 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 03:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.180 | $1,454 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 09:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.180 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 03:18 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,080 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 03:17 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $1,265 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 10:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.150 | $1,078 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 27, 04:12 AM | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $1,050 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 08:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,576 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 26, 02:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.337 | $3,075 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 05:53 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.524 | $3,668 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 05:19 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $4,320 | —— |
| Jun 25, 06:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.311 | $3,113 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 06:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.320 | $1,599 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 06:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.320 | $1,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.205 | $1,022 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 13, 02:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.196 | $1,434 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.182 | $1,229 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.189 | $1,157 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.170 | $1,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.243 | $1,375 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 13, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.358 | $1,511 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 06:48 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,867 | —— |
| Jun 12, 11:08 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.420 | $2,299 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:45 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.430 | $2,150 | —— |
| Jun 12, 10:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $1,607 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 09:21 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.382 | $1,349 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 09:11 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.410 | $1,134 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.142 | $1,416 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:14 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $33.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:07 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $8,405 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $1,020 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 06:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,354 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.246 | $1,478 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 04:57 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.380 | $1,172 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.230 | $1,076 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:17 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,410 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:15 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.410 | $1,624 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.159 | $1,687 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:04 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.403 | $1,217 | —— |
| Jun 12, 03:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.143 | $1,633 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.099 | $7,126 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $2,573 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:15 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,219 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.260 | $1,523 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 12:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $2,210 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 11:36 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.330 | $1,730 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 10:04 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.300 | $2,998 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 09:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $1,241 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.104 | $1,132 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:24 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.665 | $2,431 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:15 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.315 | $3,884 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $2,018 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.255 | $3,233 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 08:00 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.410 | $1,877 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $2,500 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 07:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,098 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 07:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.230 | $3,473 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:30 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.424 | $2,264 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,486 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:15 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.379 | $2,092 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.250 | $1,665 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.135 | $1,328 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,753 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:01 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.328 | $4,614 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $2,124 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:17 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,151 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 06:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.270 | $5,874 | 🟢Conviction tier |