wkmfa518

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xddff…52d6 with our methodology badges per row.

0xddff18c9e86262e62af046d818dda0c3de6f52d6·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-45%

historical realized

Win rate

53.2%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.16M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 92 resolved trades · -45% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

133

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$2.12M

avg $15.9K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.11M / $1.01M

net direction

Recent trades

last 133 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 10, 07:34 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.994	$14.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:42 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.977	$33.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 09:33 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.978	$10.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 08:34 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.981	$1,906	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 07:12 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$2,374	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:47 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.973	$7,492	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:06 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$4,863	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:03 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$8,676	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:03 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$2,943	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:03 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.976	$1,006	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 03:25 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$34.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:37 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$8,128	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:11 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$18.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:03 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.976	$9,251	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 01:21 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$19.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:58 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.976	$11.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:43 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.977	$7,435	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 07:36 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.974	$37.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 07:30 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.975	$13.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:03 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:00 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$8,111	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:56 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.707	$7,813	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:15 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.979	$5,463	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:12 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.825	$4,086	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:55 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.960	$25.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:49 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,958	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:49 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:45 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.972	$35.0K	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:44 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.975	$14.3K	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:44 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.973	$1,324	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:17 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.975	$3,413	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:17 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.976	$1,814	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:09 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL NO	0.997	$3,704	— (SELL)
May 28, 08:53 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.997	$8,302	— (SELL)
May 28, 08:38 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.997	$4,418	— (SELL)
May 28, 08:36 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$19.7K	— (SELL)
May 27, 11:25 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$16.6K	— (SELL)
May 24, 07:23 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.975	$3,147	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 07:23 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.975	$2,703	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:57 PM	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,338	— (SELL)
May 16, 10:32 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:31 AM	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	BUY NO	0.985	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:15 AM	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$20.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:12 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.988	$7,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:09 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.987	$3,047	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:38 AM	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	BUY NO	0.980	$7,496	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:29 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.985	$8,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:27 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.988	$2,914	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:24 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.988	$20.0K	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:22 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.989	$1,690	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:22 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.989	$7,250	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:22 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.989	$12.5K	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:18 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.940	$28.2K	— (SELL)
May 15, 09:02 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$19.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 06:50 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.990	$1,212	— (SELL)
May 15, 10:27 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,746	— (SELL)
May 15, 10:18 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$28.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:08 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,390	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:41 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$5,452	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 12:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:38 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$3,644	— (SELL)
May 14, 11:38 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$6,841	— (SELL)
May 13, 07:58 PM	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	BUY NO	0.993	$3,782	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:00 PM	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	BUY NO	0.993	$28.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:00 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.986	$11.1K	— (SELL)
May 13, 07:00 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.986	$10.5K	— (SELL)
May 13, 07:00 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.986	$6,595	— (SELL)
May 13, 10:01 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.974	$5,593	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:39 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$15.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:37 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.984	$14.7K	— (SELL)
May 12, 09:58 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 09:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.985	$10.7K	— (SELL)
May 12, 08:48 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$33.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:48 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$65.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:48 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.986	$9,580	— (SELL)
May 12, 07:46 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.985	$1,250	— (SELL)
May 12, 07:45 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$70.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 07:43 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.985	$8,765	— (SELL)
May 12, 07:43 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.986	$14.9K	— (SELL)
May 12, 07:43 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$8,434	— (SELL)
May 11, 10:05 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 10:04 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.980	$9,802	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.980	$11.1K	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.980	$16.4K	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.981	$40.6K	— (SELL)
May 6, 01:28 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,884	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 01:28 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.977	$1,954	— (SELL)
May 6, 12:56 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$5,245	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 12:49 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.977	$8,164	— (SELL)
May 6, 10:36 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$3,905	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:26 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:26 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.977	$10.3K	— (SELL)
May 6, 09:24 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,727	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:21 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.934	$1,781	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:13 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.929	$1,681	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:04 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.924	$3,842	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 02:36 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.940	$26.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 01:51 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,121	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 11:06 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.962	$79.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 11:05 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.962	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 10:33 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.940	$188.0K	— (SELL)
May 3, 08:52 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.910	$30.3K	— (SELL)
May 3, 08:49 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.920	$13.0K	— (SELL)
May 3, 06:47 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,520	— (SELL)
May 3, 02:38 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$17.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 02:24 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.970	$20.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 05:11 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.940	$47.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 08:35 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.940	$47.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 08:34 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.975	$30.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 07:18 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$93.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:45 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.996	$29.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 09:38 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,290	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 08:26 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.994	$15.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 10:11 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.994	$17.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:43 PM	Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	BUY YES	0.895	$1,398	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:16 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$10.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 08:16 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$10.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 03:27 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.988	$13.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 02:57 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,917	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 02:03 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,034	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 01:26 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,161	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 01:23 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$21.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 05:25 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$8,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 12:19 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 08:20 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL YES	0.992	$17.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 08:17 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	SELL NO	0.995	$31.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 05:38 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.966	$9,660	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 05:33 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	BUY NO	0.890	$7,204	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 05:26 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.966	$7,149	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 09:07 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.963	$9,630	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:59 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.962	$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 07:53 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.967	$7,915	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 10:49 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.968	$139.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

22 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	36	$914.0K	+$16.8K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	30	$393.7K	$-107,948
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	13	$271.6K	+$106.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	3	$60.3K	$-26,278
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Tech	3	$58.2K	$-1,220
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	9	$56.9K	+$1,574
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	Crypto	4	$39.1K	$-227
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Other	2	$38.9K	$-24,530
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$33.6K	+$33.6K
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	Crypto	3	$33.1K	$-142
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	3	$32.6K	+$21.6K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Politics	2	$32.2K	+$32.2K
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Politics	2	$32.0K	+$32.0K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Other	5	$24.4K	$-10,993
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	Crypto	2	$21.6K	+$18.9K
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	Crypto	2	$21.3K	+$21.3K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Other	1	$17.3K	$-17,335
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Politics	2	$12.1K	+$12.1K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	2	$11.9K	$-3,727
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Other	4	$11.0K	+$3,600
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Other	2	$3,473	$-19
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	Other	1	$1,398	+$1,398