| Jun 13, 01:39 PM | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $9,449 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 11:00 AM | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $4,187 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:26 AM | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.915 | $20.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 04:10 PM | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,161 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 07:01 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $6,821 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:06 PM | Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.935 | $1,188 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 01:22 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.936 | $2,556 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 01:10 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.933 | $16.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:12 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $12.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:38 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 08:44 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $18.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:34 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $41.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 09:07 PM | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $5,666 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 08:50 PM | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $4,513 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 08:50 PM | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.984 | $1,707 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:08 PM | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.928 | $1,090 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 09:18 PM | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $1,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 09:11 PM | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $1,775 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 09:22 AM | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.867 | $1,283 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 08:05 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:26 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $199.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 06:41 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.904 | $35.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 07:07 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.815 | $5,858 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 05:17 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.779 | $5,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 08:36 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $19.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 08:16 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $24.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:40 AM | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $99.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 04:19 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $29.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 04:19 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $99.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 04:05 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $74.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:38 PM | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,776 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:38 PM | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.978 | $1,063 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:38 PM | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.946 | $1,139 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 03:53 PM | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $1,756 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 12:20 PM | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.908 | $3,310 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:29 AM | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.909 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $5,948 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,263 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $8,555 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 04:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $6,382 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 08:21 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $3,004 | —— |
| Apr 17, 02:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.450 | $2,337 | —— |
| Apr 15, 05:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $4,009 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 01:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 12:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,336 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 08:35 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $7,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 07:20 PM | Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $6,304 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 07:13 PM | Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.981 | $2,462 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 03:23 PM | Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.951 | $2,555 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 05:53 AM | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.901 | $1,882 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 05:53 AM | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.892 | $2,810 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 06:57 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.999 | $199.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 06:45 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $149.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 08:59 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $24.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 06:44 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $17.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 06:03 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $74.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 05:26 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $99.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 04:48 PM | 1640919 | BUY YES | 0.996 | $99.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 05:48 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.996 | $57.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 04:25 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $7,446 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 01:21 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $18.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 07:39 AM | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.437 | $1,745 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 05:49 PM | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.727 | $1,048 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 07:19 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $50.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 07:04 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $1,265 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 04:07 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $7,085 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:48 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.966 | $16.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 08:21 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $3,279 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 08:15 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $48.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 02:52 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $47.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 07:45 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $47.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 09:02 AM | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,721 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 06:02 AM | 0x917952fa | BUY YES | 0.988 | $2,528 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 05:00 PM | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.702 | $2,733 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 04:33 PM | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.717 | $3,665 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 05:48 PM | Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $1,520 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 08:16 PM | Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $5,964 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 08:16 PM | Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $1,667 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 06:56 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.988 | $19.8K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 07:15 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | BUY NO | 0.570 | $2,004 | —— |
| Mar 24, 07:14 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | SELL YES | 0.420 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 07:12 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | SELL YES | 0.457 | $1,148 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 06:04 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | BUY YES | 0.930 | $1,623 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 05:12 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | SELL YES | 0.940 | $1,044 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 04:55 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,347 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 04:55 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | BUY YES | 0.948 | $1,790 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 04:54 PM | 0x9e0942b0 | BUY YES | 0.921 | $1,009 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 04:02 PM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.979 | $23.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |