| Jul 19, 10:43 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.946 | $2,852 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:39 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,485 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:37 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $3,968 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:51 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $2,276 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:31 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $1,110 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:28 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $5,749 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:28 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $2,023 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 06:01 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $2,889 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 01:46 PM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,317 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 09:08 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.420 | $4,200 | —— |
| Jul 15, 09:08 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.419 | $2,095 | —— |
| Jul 14, 03:20 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.340 | $1,107 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 05:42 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $16.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 05:20 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL NO | 0.400 | $4,561 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 05:18 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL NO | 0.400 | $13.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 05:14 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL NO | 0.400 | $6,702 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 10:42 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $2,419 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 12, 03:31 AM | Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $9,975 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 07:30 PM | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $9,402 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 07:30 PM | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $3,032 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 09:06 PM | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,450 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 04:21 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.110 | $7,797 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 04:16 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.110 | $1,146 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 3, 01:08 AM | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? | SELL YES | 0.985 | $8,652 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 30, 11:53 PM | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,746 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 11:53 PM | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8? | BUY YES | 0.939 | $2,421 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 10:52 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $28.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 09:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $1,140 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 02:53 AM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,457 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.826 | $4,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:12 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $6,916 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:10 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 9, 12:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.680 | $17.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:59 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY YES | 0.890 | $2,320 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:40 AM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $1,339 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:28 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $4,563 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $4,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 02:07 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $9,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:56 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.003 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:34 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:34 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $29.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 07:51 PM | 0xf526b2fb | BUY NO | 0.977 | $3,684 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 05:01 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,444 | —— |
| Jun 2, 04:37 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,172 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 03:44 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.980 | $1,732 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:24 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.980 | $2,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:17 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.977 | $1,086 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:05 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $2,063 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 01:06 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,507 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 01:05 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.130 | $2,647 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:51 PM | 0x5dc96d5b | BUY NO | 0.999 | $7,992 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:11 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY YES | 0.387 | $3,448 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $2,071 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:09 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.290 | $1,373 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:01 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.320 | $1,216 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,855 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:05 PM | 0xb03509e2 | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,425 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 06:15 PM | 0x71c49500 | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,573 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 03:11 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $1,698 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,156 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,680 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 05:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,322 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 03:44 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.482 | $2,131 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:44 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.500 | $1,258 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:42 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.490 | $2,466 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:19 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.480 | $1,314 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:13 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.480 | $1,365 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 01:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,150 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 01:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $2,850 | —— |
| May 26, 06:00 PM | 0xdb22a774 | BUY NO | 0.925 | $4,616 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:59 PM | 0xdb22a774 | BUY NO | 0.932 | $6,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,125 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 10:17 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,014 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 08:58 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:59 AM | 0xdb22a774 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:31 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,981 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,253 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:07 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.570 | $1,012 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $1,110 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,080 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 06:49 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $1,704 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.570 | $2,985 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $1,047 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:28 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,274 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:40 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.808 | $1,263 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 02:39 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $2,454 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 01:20 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $2,557 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 12:44 AM | 0x4ba34832 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,535 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:10 AM | 0xffb8a1a5 | BUY NO | 0.658 | $1,042 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,135 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 06:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $3,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,615 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $3,975 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $3,399 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:25 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.549 | $1,648 | —— |
| May 24, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $7,067 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $5,360 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:42 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:22 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,002 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $1,347 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:59 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,186 | —— |
| May 24, 02:56 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.530 | $1,897 | —— |
| May 24, 02:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.457 | $1,177 | —— |
| May 24, 02:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | SELL YES | 0.326 | $1,093 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $3,594 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 01:52 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.590 | $2,199 | —— |
| May 24, 01:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,987 | —— |
| May 24, 01:28 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.600 | $1,208 | —— |
| May 24, 01:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $4,815 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,101 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 11:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.339 | $1,117 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:26 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL YES | 0.793 | $1,263 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $2,557 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,035 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.730 | $1,055 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:32 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.720 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,430 | —— |
| May 23, 08:34 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.678 | $1,685 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $2,117 | —— |
| May 23, 08:25 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,818 | —— |
| May 23, 08:09 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $2,634 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:06 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.533 | $2,868 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 07:52 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,253 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 05:15 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,951 | —— |
| May 23, 04:37 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.560 | $3,129 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:57 PM | 0x4ba34832 | BUY NO | 0.756 | $1,512 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:38 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,737 | —— |
| May 23, 02:16 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.545 | $1,090 | —— |
| May 23, 02:15 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,003 | —— |
| May 23, 03:06 AM | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.948 | $2,984 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:06 AM | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.946 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 11:38 PM | Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,052 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 11:37 PM | Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,227 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:30 PM | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $1,758 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:30 PM | 0xc48adad4 | BUY YES | 0.968 | $9,991 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:04 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.980 | $8,036 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:04 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.980 | $2,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:01 PM | 0x4ba34832 | BUY YES | 0.970 | $1,239 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:03 PM | 0x4ba34832 | SELL NO | 0.840 | $1,031 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,326 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:20 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY NO | 0.963 | $3,107 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $1,308 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 02:13 PM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.699 | $2,344 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,241 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:30 PM | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $3,954 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.290 | $1,708 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 10:35 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,442 | —— |
| May 20, 03:20 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.620 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |