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PantheraUncia

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xcf19…6402 with our methodology badges per row.

0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
67
lifetime
PnL per $
+39%
historical realized
Win rate
43.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$374.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
172
Distinct markets
48
Volume (90d)
$942.5K
avg $5,480 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$456.7K / $485.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 172 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 04:10 PMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY YES0.994$1,823Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 03:06 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.644$3,960— (SELL)
Jul 16, 08:33 PMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY NO0.780$1,950Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 05:22 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.622$12.7K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 11:11 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL NO0.430$3,301— (SELL)
Jul 15, 10:48 AMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY NO0.748$6,588Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:22 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY NO0.427$6,402
Jul 13, 08:22 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY NO0.720$5,795Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:20 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL NO0.279$4,178— (SELL)
Jul 13, 08:19 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.650$2,804— (SELL)
Jul 13, 05:28 PMWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?BUY YES0.940$4,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 02:01 PMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.840$19.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 03:58 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.680$4,472Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:52 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.860$3,154Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:37 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL NO0.480$2,741— (SELL)
Jun 25, 01:11 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.570$1,023
Jun 24, 11:46 AMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL NO0.455$3,551— (SELL)
Jun 23, 10:09 PMWill England win on 2026-06-27?BUY YES0.820$3,280Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 03:38 PMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY NO0.750$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 11:41 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?SELL YES0.490$2,199— (SELL)
Jun 21, 11:40 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.490$4,053
Jun 13, 12:55 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.180$7,901— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:55 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.189$3,705— (SELL)
Jun 11, 09:46 PM0x876047c0SELL YES0.101$1,013— (SELL)
Jun 11, 09:05 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.122$8,786— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:25 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.138$7,236— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:10 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.050$1,292
Jun 11, 05:05 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?BUY YES0.212$6,908Conviction tier
Jun 11, 02:45 PMWill Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?BUY YES0.510$2,091
Jun 11, 01:17 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.033$3,179— (SELL)
Jun 11, 09:42 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.168$17.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 09:42 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.180$5,591Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 01:43 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.150$1,202Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 01:01 AM0x6fa13f31SELL YES0.300$1,838— (SELL)
Jun 11, 12:59 AM2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseSELL YES0.360$2,411— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:42 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.042$2,649
Jun 10, 07:20 PM0xa976dcc2BUY YES0.132$2,690Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 07:18 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.147$19.6K— (SELL)
Jun 10, 07:18 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.134$22.7K— (SELL)
Jun 10, 07:05 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.160$4,594— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:41 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.180$3,616Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:31 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.180$3,746Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 11:32 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.160$1,098Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 05:22 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.040$5,375— (SELL)
Jun 9, 10:09 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.180$2,128Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:32 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.050$4,816— (SELL)
Jun 9, 01:05 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.200$11.6KConviction tier
Jun 7, 10:19 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.180$4,982Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 08:07 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.070$6,740Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 08:04 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.690$3,256— (SELL)
Jun 7, 01:39 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.150$12.5K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 01:19 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.160$2,433— (SELL)
Jun 7, 11:19 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.070$2,772Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 01:13 AM0x739e7561SELL YES0.776$1,806— (SELL)
Jun 6, 07:43 PM0x739e7561SELL YES0.781$2,675— (SELL)
Jun 6, 11:24 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.200$1,770Conviction tier
Jun 6, 09:58 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.160$4,800Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 6, 09:56 AM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.200$21.2K— (SELL)
Jun 6, 09:49 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.070$2,409— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:33 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.250$1,061Conviction tier
Jun 5, 09:42 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.120$1,200Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 4, 10:25 PM0x739e7561BUY YES0.606$2,353Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 10:03 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.130$2,108— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:09 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.140$8,400— (SELL)
Jun 3, 04:20 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.230$1,453— (SELL)
Jun 2, 10:36 AM0x739e7561BUY YES0.416$3,547
Jun 1, 10:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.170$3,153Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 10:15 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.290$4,514Conviction tier
Jun 1, 06:26 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.290$5,806— (SELL)
Jun 1, 08:07 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.290$3,207Conviction tier
May 31, 10:51 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.995$9,950Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:55 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.290$4,803— (SELL)
May 31, 12:54 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.190$2,050Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 10:02 PM0xbcacd5a0BUY NO0.999$18.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:15 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.476$2,271
May 30, 10:02 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.040$7,277— (SELL)
May 29, 09:43 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.050$1,052— (SELL)
May 29, 08:26 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.352$6,328— (SELL)
May 29, 08:17 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.050$1,429— (SELL)
May 29, 06:55 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL YES0.251$8,102— (SELL)
May 29, 06:50 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL YES0.260$2,624— (SELL)
May 29, 06:10 PM0x8b369e10SELL YES0.520$1,040— (SELL)
May 29, 05:29 PM0x739e7561BUY YES0.345$1,023Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 03:24 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.100$1,410— (SELL)
May 28, 08:38 PMWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL YES0.335$2,220— (SELL)
May 28, 02:19 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.318$2,318— (SELL)
May 28, 02:19 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.360$3,407— (SELL)
May 28, 01:10 PM0x23e817f3BUY YES0.150$1,378Killed band — neutral expectation
May 27, 11:21 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL YES0.240$2,400— (SELL)
May 27, 11:20 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL YES0.250$2,489— (SELL)
May 27, 03:37 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.360$1,266Killed band — neutral expectation
May 27, 03:33 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.210$21.0KConviction tier
May 27, 03:32 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.414$4,662
May 27, 07:01 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.230$14.8KConviction tier
May 26, 06:29 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL YES0.019$1,901— (SELL)
May 26, 05:39 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.515$10.0K— (SELL)
May 26, 05:35 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.456$8,506— (SELL)
May 25, 10:10 PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL YES0.189$8,315— (SELL)
May 24, 10:50 PM0x8b369e10SELL NO0.680$9,649— (SELL)
May 24, 09:38 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.445$9,750— (SELL)
May 24, 09:26 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.480$1,637— (SELL)
May 24, 09:24 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.500$4,519— (SELL)
May 24, 09:18 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.384$7,684— (SELL)
May 24, 09:10 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.299$7,499Conviction tier
May 24, 03:32 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY YES0.536$5,815
May 24, 03:29 PM0x8b369e10SELL NO0.522$5,440— (SELL)
May 24, 10:40 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.145$1,108Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 10:35 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.292$9,734Conviction tier
May 24, 10:30 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.138$6,099Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 10:06 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.116$1,276Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 10:04 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.330$2,571Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 08:57 AM0x8b369e10SELL NO0.314$6,452— (SELL)
May 24, 08:56 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.290$4,724— (SELL)
May 24, 08:55 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.390$3,629— (SELL)
May 24, 08:53 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.343$23.6K— (SELL)
May 24, 07:37 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.148$5,191Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 07:37 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.176$5,399Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 11:49 PM0x22014d44BUY NO0.995$1,194Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:43 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.120$2,400Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 11:39 PM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.842$1,688Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.120$1,450Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 11:25 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?SELL NO0.611$1,454— (SELL)
May 22, 11:20 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.130$1,950Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 11:16 PM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.790$4,470Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:15 PM0xbcacd5a0BUY NO0.945$3,331Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:05 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.440$6,877
May 22, 10:04 PM0x22014d44SELL NO0.991$3,966— (SELL)
May 22, 10:01 PMJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?SELL YES0.451$1,281— (SELL)
May 22, 10:00 PM0x2bef40a1SELL YES0.203$1,819— (SELL)
May 22, 05:20 PM0x53098776BUY NO0.963$3,683Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 09:36 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?BUY NO0.312$1,582Killed band — neutral expectation
May 21, 06:59 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.432$1,696
May 21, 06:54 PM0x22014d44BUY NO0.946$8,168Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 10:32 AM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.745$14.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 10:07 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.220$11.0KConviction tier
May 20, 06:38 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.380$1,669Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 06:30 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.370$8,622Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 07:38 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.900$18.0K— (SELL)
May 19, 07:29 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.280$1,277Conviction tier
May 19, 06:32 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.890$17.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:30 PM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.800$3,886Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:30 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.300$4,423— (SELL)
May 19, 06:28 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.320$2,829— (SELL)
May 19, 10:50 AM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.780$1,408Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:47 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.170$2,481— (SELL)
May 18, 02:32 PM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.816$3,249Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:28 PM0x22014d44BUY NO0.930$2,119Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 11:50 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.170$2,481Killed band — neutral expectation
May 16, 06:09 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.110$11.0K— (SELL)
May 15, 07:05 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.290$1,785Conviction tier
May 15, 06:50 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.330$5,241Killed band — neutral expectation
May 15, 06:50 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.110$6,655Killed band — neutral expectation
May 15, 03:04 PM0xbcacd5a0SELL NO0.950$7,710— (SELL)
May 15, 02:53 PM0xbcacd5a0SELL NO0.950$21.9K— (SELL)
May 15, 01:21 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.330$3,445— (SELL)
May 15, 11:48 AM0x6114a8a3SELL NO0.670$3,065— (SELL)
May 15, 06:21 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.670$8,670Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:29 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.340$10.9K— (SELL)
May 14, 11:46 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.330$1,494Killed band — neutral expectation
May 14, 11:35 AM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.330$4,571— (SELL)
May 14, 07:38 AM0x727ee8aaBUY NO0.980$1,560Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:06 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.340$5,978Killed band — neutral expectation
May 12, 12:22 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.350$21.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 11, 11:58 AMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?BUY NO0.800$1,440Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 09:21 PM0xbcacd5a0SELL NO0.940$14.1K— (SELL)
May 10, 06:08 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.464$7,521— (SELL)
May 10, 06:05 PM0x1db02ba5SELL YES0.119$2,498— (SELL)
May 10, 06:05 PM0x1db02ba5SELL YES0.121$2,769— (SELL)
May 10, 03:17 PM0x70d706feBUY YES0.160$2,034Killed band — neutral expectation
May 9, 01:46 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL YES0.478$14.8K— (SELL)
May 9, 10:42 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.450$3,507
May 9, 07:25 AM0x1db02ba5BUY YES0.143$1,841Killed band — neutral expectation

Markets active in

48 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x6114a8a340$269.6K$-37,337
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other17$156.7K+$22.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other23$103.2K$-49,216
0xbcacd5a05$65.8K$-21,512
0x8b369e1010$52.2K+$7,013
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Politics6$23.2K+$8,937
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Other5$21.4K$-9,799
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech6$21.0K+$17.2K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics1$19.8K+$19.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech2$16.6K$-13,003
0x22014d444$15.4K+$7,515
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Other3$13.8K$-7,403
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance2$13.7K$-11,678
0x739e75615$11.4K+$2,442
Fed rate hike in 2026?Finance3$10.5K$-10,469
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other1$9,734+$9,734
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Tech2$9,703+$3,101
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Finance2$8,432+$512
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics1$8,315$-8,315
0x1db02ba53$7,107$-3,426
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Other1$6,908+$6,908
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Other1$6,588+$6,588
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Other2$6,253+$1,854
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Tech1$5,795+$5,795
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech2$5,527$-985
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech1$4,800+$4,800
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Politics1$4,700+$4,700
0x530987761$3,683+$3,683
Will England win on 2026-06-27?Other1$3,280+$3,280
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics1$3,154+$3,154

Showing top 30 by volume.