Ahpo

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xcdb1…276c with our methodology badges per row.

0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+4%

historical realized

Win rate

83.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$188.4K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 65 resolved trades · 4% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

143

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$461.2K

avg $3,225 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$365.7K / $95.5K

net direction

Recent trades

last 143 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 05:56 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.730	$3,244	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 07:45 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.720	$3,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:58 AM	Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,618	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:58 AM	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,202	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 01:50 AM	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.800	$2,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 05:57 PM	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$2,525	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 05:56 PM	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$6,280	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:05 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.944	$1,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 01:04 PM	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	SELL YES	0.920	$3,025	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:49 PM	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	BUY YES	0.900	$3,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:49 PM	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	BUY YES	0.900	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:31 PM	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	BUY NO	0.810	$12.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:30 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.790	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 09:23 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.930	$2,622	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:01 PM	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in July?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:05 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.209	$1,050	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 8, 11:40 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.999	$45.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:30 PM	Databricks IPO before 2027?	BUY NO	0.841	$1,343	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:26 PM	Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?	BUY YES	0.910	$3,514	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:27 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.941	$5,919	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 12:03 PM	Will MicroStrategy announce selling any Bitcoin by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,638	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 12:56 AM	England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:09 PM	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in July?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,775	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 09:38 PM	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in July?	BUY YES	0.994	$4,919	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 07:00 PM	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July?	BUY YES	0.979	$1,590	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:21 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	SELL NO	0.686	$1,305	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 09:16 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	SELL NO	0.710	$2,155	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 09:10 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	BUY NO	0.707	$4,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:49 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.983	$1,602	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:35 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.833	$1,851	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:35 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.833	$3,702	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:35 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.833	$4,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:26 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 05:57 PM	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,725	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:15 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.569	$1,514	—
Jun 30, 02:34 PM	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	BUY YES	0.965	$1,351	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:08 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.671	$1,491	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:45 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.994	$2,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:27 PM	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,377	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 06:08 PM	0xa976dcc2	BUY NO	0.995	$1,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:56 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,460	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:05 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.880	$1,022	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 05:02 PM	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,160	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:01 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.888	$1,261	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:19 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,418	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 07:01 PM	Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,725	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 07:00 PM	Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,878	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 06:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.710	$1,148	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 06:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.710	$2,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:29 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.959	$1,534	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 05:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.952	$1,909	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.460	$1,483	—
Jun 24, 04:29 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.460	$2,300	—
Jun 24, 10:45 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,504	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 02:55 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.972	$2,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 02:55 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,498	— (SELL)
Jun 22, 03:23 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 03:18 PM	Will jL win a trophy by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,862	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 08:34 AM	Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY YES	0.989	$7,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:41 PM	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	BUY NO	0.961	$1,027	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:07 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.995	$2,070	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:51 AM	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,947	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:14 PM	Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	BUY YES	0.790	$1,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:42 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:04 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:32 PM	Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	BUY YES	0.821	$1,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:29 PM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:32 PM	0x42973552	BUY YES	0.998	$1,896	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:44 PM	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:08 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,599	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:02 AM	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	BUY NO	0.945	$1,162	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:51 AM	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,705	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:50 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.935	$1,370	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:41 AM	0x8d6153cc	BUY NO	0.999	$3,108	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:11 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	SELL NO	0.985	$1,283	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 10:39 AM	0x9647b0f1	SELL NO	0.995	$2,494	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 10:16 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL NO	0.931	$1,856	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:58 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL NO	0.932	$7,207	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:38 AM	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	SELL NO	0.948	$2,317	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:35 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	SELL NO	0.987	$2,695	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:03 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	SELL NO	0.988	$1,067	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 07:11 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL NO	0.935	$4,574	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:07 PM	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	SELL NO	0.951	$1,674	— (SELL)
May 31, 05:00 PM	Anthropic CEO arrested?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,014	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:45 PM	Anthropic CEO arrested?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,211	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:37 AM	0xbc053afa	BUY NO	0.996	$1,123	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:45 PM	0xdb22a774	SELL NO	0.999	$18.9K	— (SELL)
May 29, 10:26 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.998	$1,996	— (SELL)
May 29, 02:52 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY YES	0.420	$2,000	—
May 29, 01:31 PM	0x0e470514	BUY YES	0.650	$3,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:25 AM	0xdb22a774	BUY NO	0.997	$4,706	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:16 PM	0xdb22a774	SELL NO	0.995	$2,211	— (SELL)
May 28, 06:12 PM	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	BUY YES	0.920	$9,188	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:12 PM	0xe04f341b	SELL NO	0.999	$12.1K	— (SELL)
May 28, 06:10 PM	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:29 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.860	$1,051	— (SELL)
May 28, 03:40 PM	0xdb22a774	BUY NO	0.997	$2,394	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:13 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY YES	0.460	$1,403	—
May 27, 07:03 PM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.934	$1,718	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:45 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.994	$1,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:28 PM	0x9a87a001	BUY NO	0.867	$1,241	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:10 PM	0x9a87a001	BUY NO	0.430	$1,137	—
May 26, 09:54 AM	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.870	$2,081	— (SELL)
May 24, 02:51 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.820	$3,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:11 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	BUY NO	0.730	$2,492	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:46 PM	0x162c5d15	BUY YES	0.949	$1,912	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 08:30 AM	0x2bef40a1	BUY NO	0.567	$1,748	—
May 24, 06:58 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY YES	0.490	$3,988	—
May 23, 08:27 AM	0x4ba34832	SELL YES	0.968	$1,215	— (SELL)
May 22, 01:06 PM	0x7f4378c2	SELL NO	0.999	$1,499	— (SELL)
May 20, 09:08 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	SELL YES	0.989	$2,491	— (SELL)
May 20, 08:44 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,055	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 08:44 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	BUY YES	0.946	$1,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 04:46 PM	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,207	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:15 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.263	$2,063	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 07:43 PM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.934	$1,130	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 07:02 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.597	$2,651	—
May 18, 07:01 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.761	$3,339	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:19 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.950	$2,444	— (SELL)
May 18, 12:01 PM	0x2b3f7a15	BUY YES	0.998	$1,082	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 12:01 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.640	$2,360	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 08:16 PM	0xbd5922ee	BUY NO	0.945	$1,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 07:27 PM	0xbd5922ee	BUY NO	0.950	$2,111	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 04:21 PM	0xbd5922ee	BUY NO	0.966	$1,777	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 02:28 PM	AI bubble burst in 2026?	BUY NO	0.781	$2,510	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 06:09 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.935	$2,905	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:12 PM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.998	$6,517	— (SELL)
May 14, 12:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 12:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.461	$3,059	— (SELL)
May 14, 11:24 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.460	$7,208	—
May 14, 01:16 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.935	$2,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:15 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.934	$6,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:12 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.800	$4,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 07:35 AM	0xffe381a8	BUY NO	0.994	$1,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:03 AM	0xffe381a8	BUY NO	0.994	$4,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:44 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.923	$6,377	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 08:13 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.660	$1,059	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 05:53 PM	0x1db02ba5	BUY NO	0.859	$2,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:43 PM	0xbf1d0865	BUY NO	0.709	$1,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:00 PM	0x3e16995c	BUY YES	0.119	$1,025	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 8, 07:44 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY YES	0.520	$2,046	—
May 8, 06:00 PM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.153	$2,464	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 8, 05:23 PM	0x483c0277	BUY YES	0.915	$1,631	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

93 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	1	$45.0K	+$45.0K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	9	$30.0K	+$2,707
0xdb22a774	—	4	$28.2K	$-14,019
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Finance	3	$26.3K	+$20.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	4	$14.0K	+$7,932
0xffe381a8	—	3	$13.0K	$-26
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Finance	1	$12.1K	+$12.1K
0xe04f341b	—	1	$12.1K	$-12,075
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	4	$11.2K	+$11.2K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$10.9K	+$10.9K
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Tech	1	$9,188	+$9,188
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	5	$9,006	+$5,937
0x6114a8a3	—	4	$8,448	+$8,448
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Other	3	$8,033	+$1,112
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Other	1	$7,015	+$7,015
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	2	$6,844	+$356
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in July?	Politics	2	$6,694	+$6,694
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Tech	4	$6,645	$-3,446
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting?	Other	2	$6,603	+$6,603
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	1	$6,377	+$6,377
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?	Other	1	$6,280	+$6,280
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	2	$6,032	+$6,032
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$5,919	+$5,919
0x4ba34832	—	3	$5,854	+$3,425
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Other	1	$5,202	+$5,202
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Other	3	$5,153	$-2,829
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Tech	3	$4,942	$-40
0xbd5922ee	—	3	$4,890	+$4,890
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?	Other	1	$4,725	+$4,725
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	1	$4,000	+$4,000

Showing top 30 by volume.