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larkspur

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xcbc5…e175 with our methodology badges per row.

0xcbc5d8509552a47be7a2386311e43a05cee3e175·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
24
lifetime
PnL per $
-18%
historical realized
Win rate
52.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$132.7K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 24 resolved trades · -18% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
28
Distinct markets
10
Volume (90d)
$202.4K
avg $7,228 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$103.4K / $99.0K
net direction

Recent trades

last 28 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 14, 04:40 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.907$8,965— (SELL)
Jul 14, 04:26 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.900$3,525— (SELL)
Jul 14, 04:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.900$13.0K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 05:15 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.610$8,831Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:28 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.788$8,093Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:26 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.787$14.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:21 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?SELL NO0.602$3,279— (SELL)
Jul 7, 02:18 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?SELL NO0.623$1,149— (SELL)
Jul 7, 02:16 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?SELL NO0.630$10.7K— (SELL)
Jul 4, 11:12 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?BUY NO0.598$4,170—
Jul 4, 10:57 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?BUY NO0.598$14.5K—
Jun 30, 03:59 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?BUY NO0.613$1,839Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:38 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?BUY NO0.571$3,689—
Jun 29, 04:40 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?SELL NO0.700$10.1K— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:06 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?BUY NO0.585$7,065—
Jun 28, 08:01 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?BUY NO0.569$1,053—
Jun 11, 01:17 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.541$1,600—
Jun 3, 10:11 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?SELL NO0.854$3,614— (SELL)
May 28, 02:51 PM0xd8617701SELL NO0.994$33.3K— (SELL)
May 25, 04:54 AMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?BUY NO0.770$3,239Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 08:43 PMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?SELL YES0.870$1,996— (SELL)
May 22, 08:41 PM0x416e3cbeSELL NO0.900$4,515— (SELL)
May 22, 03:51 AMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?SELL YES0.857$1,965— (SELL)
May 16, 02:09 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.580$2,845— (SELL)
May 14, 01:59 PM0xd8617701BUY NO0.955$28.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:32 PM0xd8617701BUY NO0.951$3,936Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 04:13 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.630$1,008Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:48 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.630$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

10 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0xd8617701—3$65.2K$-1,317
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance4$35.0K+$10.0K
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Crypto5$33.8K+$3,529
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Crypto5$23.8K+$3,529
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance2$21.9K$-4,198
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Other2$6,853$-375
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports3$5,853+$163
0x416e3cbe—1$4,515$-4,515
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Sports2$3,961$-3,961
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$1,600+$1,600