justme003

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xcb89…a2e8 with our methodology badges per row.

0xcb894d56b6ed7f458e8534636a086b65e915a2e8·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-30%

historical realized

Win rate

50.5%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$186.0K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 68 resolved trades · -30% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

137

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$345.3K

avg $2,520 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$180.2K / $165.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 137 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 12:42 PM	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,625	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:00 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.923	$1,158	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:49 PM	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.998	$3,314	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:12 PM	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.919	$2,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:07 PM	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,441	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:52 AM	Megaquake by July 31?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,033	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:20 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.940	$5,642	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 05:58 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.948	$10.1K	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 11:54 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.964	$2,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 11:53 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.974	$2,338	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 09:20 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.963	$5,414	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:19 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,764	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:55 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,996	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:54 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	BUY YES	0.909	$1,364	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 12:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.998	$9,980	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 02:10 PM	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.973	$1,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 05:54 PM	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	SELL YES	0.747	$1,631	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 10:02 AM	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:00 PM	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.945	$1,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:02 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	BUY YES	0.989	$2,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:01 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	BUY YES	0.959	$3,786	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:12 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.991	$2,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:10 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,155	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:14 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.870	$21.8K	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 09:10 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.959	$1,918	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 01:05 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,205	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:13 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:09 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,071	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:43 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	BUY YES	0.990	$3,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 06:48 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY YES	0.850	$1,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:44 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 09:53 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:52 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,996	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 08:48 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 04:57 PM	MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,366	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 11:29 AM	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY YES	0.840	$1,117	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:22 PM	New pandemic in 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 07:08 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,996	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 03:37 PM	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.819	$1,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 04:44 PM	US recession by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:04 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL NO	0.549	$1,674	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 02:35 PM	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:48 AM	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 09:56 PM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 09:55 PM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	SELL NO	0.960	$1,440	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 08:45 PM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,860	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 08:06 PM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,920	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:14 PM	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:09 PM	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,937	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:42 AM	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	BUY YES	0.959	$3,836	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:59 PM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.969	$1,539	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:22 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.863	$3,748	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 08:10 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.961	$1,778	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:48 AM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	SELL NO	0.903	$2,077	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 05:17 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,245	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 04:52 PM	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,637	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:34 PM	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.622	$1,502	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 08:10 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,352	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:36 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,233	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:27 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.600	$7,800	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 01:53 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.590	$1,283	—
Jun 2, 09:37 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,610	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:31 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,341	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:30 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.745	$3,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:30 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.640	$6,400	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 08:52 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.640	$1,088	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 08:13 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.651	$1,171	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 07:32 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,152	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:02 PM	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,322	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:12 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.700	$1,121	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:50 AM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$6,305	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:44 AM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,632	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:27 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.580	$1,740	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 10:25 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.700	$1,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:04 AM	0xbcacd5a0	SELL NO	0.999	$1,099	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:00 AM	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,424	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:59 AM	0xbcacd5a0	SELL NO	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
May 31, 08:55 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.966	$4,692	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:54 AM	0xbcacd5a0	SELL NO	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
May 28, 04:15 PM	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,563	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:46 PM	0x27ad7bac	BUY NO	0.961	$1,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:41 PM	0x27ad7bac	BUY NO	0.910	$1,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:59 AM	0xde5ed16b	SELL NO	0.939	$1,062	— (SELL)
May 22, 10:47 AM	0xbcacd5a0	BUY NO	0.966	$2,029	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 08:40 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	BUY NO	0.939	$3,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 08:39 PM	0x69487ec6	SELL NO	0.998	$2,849	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:29 PM	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,069	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:23 PM	0x27ad7bac	SELL NO	0.720	$4,567	— (SELL)
May 18, 11:43 AM	0x69487ec6	BUY NO	0.966	$2,758	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:21 AM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.998	$1,791	— (SELL)
May 17, 12:17 AM	0xbcacd5a0	BUY NO	0.950	$5,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:26 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.590	$1,315	—
May 16, 09:22 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.941	$1,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:20 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.938	$3,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:59 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.800	$1,271	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:58 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.792	$1,022	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:58 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.938	$1,670	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:57 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.820	$1,241	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:42 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.850	$1,870	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:38 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.940	$4,702	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:36 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.850	$1,015	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:57 PM	0x69487ec6	BUY NO	0.980	$3,430	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:40 AM	0xe0b6f4d4	BUY NO	0.940	$11.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:57 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.585	$1,579	—
May 16, 09:19 AM	0x27ad7bac	SELL NO	0.800	$8,005	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:45 AM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.956	$1,356	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:49 AM	0xe0b6f4d4	BUY NO	0.930	$1,414	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:26 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	BUY NO	0.910	$2,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:26 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
May 14, 03:22 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,484	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:21 PM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.997	$2,592	— (SELL)
May 13, 08:21 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,094	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:20 AM	0x2509daa2	SELL NO	0.999	$1,099	— (SELL)
May 12, 08:42 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.942	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:42 PM	0x6680cae9	SELL NO	0.945	$1,431	— (SELL)
May 12, 06:38 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.928	$2,969	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:37 PM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.997	$2,991	— (SELL)
May 12, 05:42 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.919	$2,597	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 05:41 PM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.996	$2,590	— (SELL)
May 12, 11:03 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.909	$1,669	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 11:03 AM	0x2509daa2	SELL NO	0.995	$1,592	— (SELL)
May 12, 10:54 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.898	$2,390	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 06:32 PM	0x1db02ba5	BUY NO	0.977	$3,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 05:50 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.740	$1,437	— (SELL)
May 11, 05:40 PM	0x27ad7bac	BUY NO	0.880	$1,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 05:36 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.870	$1,977	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:41 AM	0x1db02ba5	BUY NO	0.956	$1,184	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 AM	0x667c01a1	SELL NO	0.997	$1,296	— (SELL)
May 9, 07:54 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.930	$4,650	— (SELL)
May 9, 07:13 PM	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	SELL NO	0.800	$1,079	— (SELL)
May 9, 06:21 PM	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 10:45 AM	0x2509daa2	BUY NO	0.930	$1,364	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 08:46 AM	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	SELL NO	0.888	$1,458	— (SELL)
May 8, 06:33 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.972	$2,390	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 06:15 PM	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.530	$1,087	— (SELL)
May 8, 04:43 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,236	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 04:43 PM	Iran Nuke before 2027?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,229	— (SELL)

Markets active in

57 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	6	$46.5K	$-30,841
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	13	$29.3K	+$7,139
0xe0b6f4d4	—	9	$24.8K	+$12.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Tech	5	$19.6K	$-13,758
0x27ad7bac	—	5	$16.5K	$-8,625
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	4	$16.5K	$-16,459
0xbcacd5a0	—	5	$15.8K	$-363
0x6680cae9	—	6	$13.6K	+$10.7K
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Other	4	$11.6K	+$7,399
0xffe381a8	—	4	$9,964	$-9,964
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	6	$9,729	+$9,729
0x69487ec6	—	3	$9,037	+$3,339
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Other	4	$8,156	+$1,556
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Other	2	$6,753	+$6,753
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Tech	2	$6,688	+$2,696
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	2	$5,525	$-1,970
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Tech	2	$5,356	$-1,271
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Other	3	$5,273	+$1,277
0x1db02ba5	—	2	$5,181	+$5,181
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Other	3	$4,982	+$307
0x2509daa2	—	3	$4,055	$-1,327
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Other	2	$3,987	+$3,987
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Other	2	$3,855	+$1,365
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Other	2	$3,853	+$3,853
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	3	$3,846	+$3,846
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Politics	1	$3,836	+$3,836
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Tech	1	$3,300	+$3,300
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Other	1	$2,937	+$2,937
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Other	2	$2,748	$-513
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Other	2	$2,703	+$2,703

Showing top 30 by volume.