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0xC41D736bDed9ED1acCD6A44235039266219774fD-1777101352681

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc41d…74fd with our methodology badges per row.

0xc41d736bded9ed1accd6a44235039266219774fd·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
76
lifetime
PnL per $
+8%
historical realized
Win rate
59.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$1.34M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
126
Distinct markets
63
Volume (90d)
$1.87M
avg $14.8K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.67M / $201.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 126 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 07:43 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.618$19.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:42 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.610$9,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:37 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.580$14.8K
Jul 19, 07:34 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.580$8,700
Jul 19, 07:32 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.570$12.0K
Jul 19, 07:24 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.530$23.9K
Jul 19, 07:15 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.487$19.5K
Jul 19, 07:08 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.478$17.2K
Jul 19, 07:03 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.470$28.2K
Jul 19, 07:03 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.460$8,510
Jul 19, 07:02 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.460$32.3K
Jul 15, 08:33 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?BUY NO0.927$11.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:24 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?BUY NO0.710$4,904Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:38 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY NO0.907$2,124Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:38 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?BUY NO0.181$2,107Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 09:17 PMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.422$15.1K
Jul 9, 08:31 PMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.365$16.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 08:09 PMFrance vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.510$8,772
Jul 9, 08:08 PMFrance vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.500$17.8K
Jul 9, 08:02 PMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.385$4,701Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 06:22 PMFrance vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreSELL NO0.500$9,280— (SELL)
Jul 7, 08:04 PMSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.510$8,598
Jul 7, 07:46 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.740$156.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:46 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.740$81.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:19 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.510$22.2K
Jul 7, 04:14 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.290$12.5KConviction tier
Jul 7, 04:11 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.290$19.3KConviction tier
Jul 7, 12:12 AMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-06?BUY NO0.420$8,526
Jul 7, 12:09 AMUnited States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.330$5,617Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 12:06 AMUnited States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.410$5,945
Jul 6, 07:31 PMPortugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.500$11.5K
Jul 6, 07:28 PMPortugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.480$17.8K
Jul 6, 07:02 PMPortugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.410$1,798
Jul 4, 09:07 PMWill France win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.190$6,149Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 09:02 PMWill France win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.190$41.7KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 05:39 PMCanada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.660$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 05:36 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.640$25.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 05:33 PMCanada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.610$1,614Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 05:23 PMCanada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.570$1,743
Jul 4, 05:18 PMCanada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.560$8,960
Jul 4, 05:13 PMCanada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.557$5,849
Jul 4, 01:48 AMColombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.530$3,447
Jul 4, 01:27 AMWill Colombia win on 2026-07-03?BUY NO0.320$5,280Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 09:55 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?BUY NO0.140$3,038Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 07:19 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?BUY NO0.710$42.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:36 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.292$1,489Conviction tier
Jul 3, 03:33 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.307$2,147Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 03:16 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.333$4,324Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 03:13 AMSwitzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.317$6,863Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 11:18 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.418$8,360
Jul 2, 11:15 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.391$12.6KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 11:12 PMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.450$14.3K
Jul 2, 11:09 PMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.450$13.9K
Jul 2, 11:06 PMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.437$8,876
Jul 2, 07:30 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.310$5,030Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 12:03 AMUnited States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.510$3,654
Jul 1, 04:09 PMWill England win on 2026-07-01?BUY NO0.430$25.2K
Jul 1, 04:05 PMWill England win on 2026-07-01?BUY NO0.260$5,200Conviction tier
Jul 1, 04:04 PMWill England win on 2026-07-01?BUY NO0.250$1,250Conviction tier
Jul 1, 02:07 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.550$6,875
Jun 30, 09:33 PMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.280$1,120Conviction tier
Jun 30, 09:29 PMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.290$8,381Conviction tier
Jun 30, 09:21 PMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.290$18.1KConviction tier
Jun 30, 08:50 PMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.240$32.2KConviction tier
Jun 30, 08:32 PMKylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsBUY NO0.400$5,120Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 04:40 PMErling Haaland: 1+ goalsBUY NO0.480$4,224
Jun 30, 01:20 AMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.710$10.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 01:09 AMNetherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreBUY NO0.490$9,065
Jun 29, 08:51 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.280$9,231Conviction tier
Jun 29, 08:46 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.280$14.3KConviction tier
Jun 29, 05:26 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.490$20.4K
Jun 29, 05:05 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.450$1,674
Jun 28, 12:00 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.530$53.0K
Jun 28, 12:00 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.530$10.6K
Jun 28, 12:00 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.530$26.5K
Jun 27, 11:59 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.530$53.0K
Jun 27, 11:59 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.530$53.0K
Jun 27, 11:36 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.490$3,409
Jun 27, 11:30 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.460$20.7K
Jun 26, 02:28 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.530$5,887
Jun 26, 02:21 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.520$7,291
Jun 26, 01:56 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.620$80.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:02 PMWill Japan win on 2026-06-25?SELL NO0.620$7,309— (SELL)
Jun 25, 11:00 PMWill Sweden win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.681$11.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 10:57 PMWill Japan win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.595$6,512
Jun 25, 10:53 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.130$5,985Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 10:32 PMWill Japan win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.568$10.6K
Jun 25, 08:42 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.539$5,394
Jun 25, 08:15 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.452$2,711
Jun 25, 01:00 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.440$14.8K
Jun 24, 11:16 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.370$1,084Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 10:24 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.480$6,240
Jun 24, 10:10 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.120$1,440Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 10:09 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.120$7,533Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 10:06 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.280$1,832Conviction tier
Jun 24, 07:12 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.620$18.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:00 AMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.340$35.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 05:27 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.400$66.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 12:31 AMNew Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.480$7,328
Jun 11, 06:59 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.320$5,314Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:59 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.320$38.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 5, 02:29 PM0xc454cc68BUY NO0.560$1,076
May 23, 07:39 PM0x66585da0BUY NO0.220$1,848Conviction tier
May 23, 06:05 PMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?BUY NO0.320$1,548Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 05:58 PMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?BUY NO0.290$5,450Conviction tier
May 22, 06:48 PM0x97e5a4ebBUY NO0.580$4,010
May 19, 07:10 PM0xb99047b9BUY YES0.420$2,050
May 18, 07:13 PM0x95819f16BUY NO0.130$1,463Killed band — neutral expectation
May 12, 07:48 PM0x4871817cBUY NO0.460$1,932
May 11, 07:04 PM0x4b4fbe43BUY NO0.650$2,600Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 06:57 PM0x4b4fbe43BUY NO0.640$1,280Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 06:52 PM0x4b4fbe43BUY NO0.410$2,168
May 11, 06:46 PM0x4b4fbe43BUY NO0.380$2,250Killed band — neutral expectation
May 10, 06:48 PM0x9493c40eBUY NO0.580$3,017
May 10, 03:50 PM0x9df495a4BUY NO0.360$1,306Killed band — neutral expectation
May 10, 03:20 PM0x883c28ceSELL NO0.999$9,775— (SELL)
May 10, 03:20 PM0x883c28ceSELL NO0.999$1,484— (SELL)
May 10, 03:20 PM0x883c28ceSELL NO0.999$173.9K— (SELL)
May 9, 03:51 PM0x6fe4e1c7BUY NO0.460$7,406
May 9, 11:45 AM0x95c9e927BUY NO0.340$4,608Killed band — neutral expectation
May 9, 11:44 AM0x95c9e927BUY NO0.340$3,400Killed band — neutral expectation
May 9, 11:43 AM0x95c9e927BUY NO0.340$1,700Killed band — neutral expectation
May 9, 11:33 AM0x95c9e927BUY NO0.560$7,850
May 9, 11:32 AM0x95c9e927BUY NO0.550$1,480
May 9, 11:31 AM0x95c9e927BUY NO0.530$1,377
May 8, 05:02 PM0xefc651c2BUY NO0.580$2,320

Markets active in

63 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?Other2$237.8K+$237.8K
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Other7$220.2K+$220.2K
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreTech11$194.4K+$194.4K
0x883c28ce3$185.2K$-185,205
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?Other1$80.6K+$80.6K
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Other1$66.0K+$66.0K
Will France win on 2026-06-30?Other4$59.8K+$59.8K
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Other3$54.0K+$54.0K
Will France win on 2026-07-04?Other2$47.8K+$47.8K
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Other2$43.7K+$43.7K
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?Other1$42.0K+$42.0K
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreOther3$37.1K+$37.1K
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Other1$35.9K+$35.9K
Will France win on 2026-07-09?Other3$35.8K+$35.8K
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreOther3$35.8K+$17.2K
Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreOther5$32.7K+$32.7K
Will England win on 2026-07-01?Other3$31.6K+$31.6K
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreTech3$31.1K+$31.1K
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Other1$25.6K+$25.6K
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?Other3$24.4K+$9,806
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?Other2$23.5K+$23.5K
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Other2$22.1K+$22.1K
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Other2$21.0K+$21.0K
0x95c9e9276$20.4K+$20.4K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Other1$18.6K+$18.6K
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?Other2$16.1K+$16.1K
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Other1$14.8K+$14.8K
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Other2$13.2K+$13.2K
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?Other1$11.9K+$11.9K
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreOther2$11.6K+$11.6K

Showing top 30 by volume.